Southampton are stronger than West Brom on almost every metric, they’re not in terms of their league position but that’s due to their four-point deduction.

Saints would be three points higher than the overperforming Baggies if it wasn’t for the deduction, but they can pull two ahead of them with a win at The Hawthorns.

Max O’Leary Goals Prevented of 6.00, comfortably the best in the league, is one of the main reasons why West Brom are still bouncing around in the play-offs, they won’t be for much longer if performances don’t improve.

The 3-1 win at West Ham looks good on paper, they took advantage of some very poor defending and such that could spell the end of Nuno Espirito Santo sooner rather than later.

Southampton have scored seven goals in their last two games, and could continue in that vein against the Baggies’ overperforming backline.

This bet has won in 10 of Schlotterbeck’s 11 Championship games this season (91%).

He had two shots on target, both headers from corners, in the 4-1 win v QPR on Saturday, and West Brom are allowing 4.62 shots per 90 from set pieces, the 7th-most in the division.

0.46 set piece xG against ranks them as the 5th-leakiest side in the league when it comes to denying the opposition chances from dead balls.

The odds are very attractive for this bet, considering how reliable Schlotterbeck has been at delivering on this selection (10/11) , 47% of the xG that West Ham generated against West Brom at the weekend came from set pieces.

Max Kilman had two shots from corners against West Brom on Saturday, you can get 5.50 in places on Schlotterbeck matching that tally.

He’s not a striker, but the biggest shot threat in the West Brom side is Isaac Price.

Price is at 3.07 shots per 90 in the league this season, has landed this bet in 10 of 13 league appearances and will lead the charge against the visiting automatic promotion hopefuls.

Even though Southampton have the 7th-best backline in terms of xG against, they concede a lot of shots, just lower probability ones than many of their second tier rivals, which is good for this bet.

Only Blackburn (13th), Charlton (20th), Watford (21st), Preston (24th) and Lincoln (16th), have conceded more shots than Southampton this season, and Price does not need a second invitation to let fly.

Price has had four shots from free kicks this season and has scored two penalties, so there’re plenty of circumstances where this selection sails in, even if Southampton are the better team on the night.

This bet has won in five of West Brom’s last six, even Preston covered this line and they’re six points adrift of safety already.

West Ham, Wolves and Birmingham have all managed eight corners or more against West Brom, in those last six outings, and Southampton are a side that’ll be competing in the same section of the table as that trio this season.

Max O’Leary’s excellent form between the sticks could also help this bet, tipping shots round the post that are destined for the back of the net more than other goalkeepers have been able to.

Saints have comfortably covered this line in their last three, with nine against QPR and six against West Ham in their last two.

Southampton have scored in 12/13 league games so far this term, and they travel to a West Brom side who’ve unsustainably overperformed to concede only 14 from 19.0 xG.

Saints have scored seven goals in their last two games, and that’s come against 8th and 9th in the table (West Ham and QPR) but their attack has been so good they’ve been able to find the net like they were playing relegation-battlers.

West Brom have kept just two clean sheets in 13 league outings, shutting out Watford and Derby (21st and 23rd), they’re about to face a far superior attack.

Only Middlesbrough and West Ham have scored more in the league than Southampton, and the visitors rank 5th for xG for.

There was a lot of promise in Burnley’s 0-0 draw with Portsmouth on Saturday, their first game with Fabio Celestini in charge.

Burnley generated 1.89 xG, with Marcus Edwards producing one of the biggest misses of the season so far, while, arguably even more impressively, they restricted Pompey to five shots and only one inside the box - equating to 0.25 xG.

A performance close to that will see them generate enough chances to get on the scoresheet at a QPR side who’re not known for defensive solidity.

They have conceded in 10/13 league games so far this season, while Burnley’s improved defensive process should give them the platform to express themselves more in the final third.

Poor old Preston.

They’ve already pressed the new manager button, welcoming a club legend in Graham Alexander back to the club after his very impressive work at Bradford, but he’s only returned one point from five league games.

They mustered a pathetic 0.10 xG from just three shots in their 2-0 defeat at Stoke on Saturday and they host a Sheff U side who have improved of late and are knocking on the door of the play-offs as a result.

Chris Wilder’s Blades have scored in their last five league away games, netting two or more in three of those, and have taken seven points from their last three games.

This bet is unbeaten in 12/13 PNE league games this season and they’re already six points adrift of safety, sitting rock-bottom with preparation for League One creeping towards the forefront of their minds.

Lincoln continue to be underestimated by the market and should get on the scoresheet at Vicarage Road.

Lincoln have scored in 10/13 in the league, and one of those blanks was a game where they saw two red cards in the first half, it’s 10/12 (83%) if we exclude that one.

Watford have only kept one clean sheet in their 13 league outings, and it came at home to Charlton - who’re 2nd-bottom for xG for and goals for.

Watford are a relegation-battler on virtually every metric, they’re at the bottom end for xG against as well, while Lincoln have scored seven goals in their last three games, with this bet landing in the first half of two of those.

Huddersfield are playing so well, it could materialise that they run away with the league and build a 10+ point cushion at the top.

They’re title favourites and as short as 1.44 in places for promotion.

If that comes to pass, it’ll make a mockery of the fact that we’re still getting prices around even money for them to win home games.

Huddersfield top the league on points, expected points, expected goal difference and xG against, while they’re 2nd for xG for.

There are two teams in this match though and Luton are only five points back in the table, they’re overperforming a touch in front of goal - netting 26 from 23.2 xG where Huddersfield are at a more sustainable 27 from 28.5.

The scheduling is against the visitors as well, this will be their second away game in four days while Huddersfield’s 3-0 early kick-off win at Bradford on Saturday was done and dusted by the time Luton kicked off in their 2-0 win at Peterborough.

This bet is unbeaten in 6/6 of Huddersfield’s home league games this term.