Bournemouth

The Brazilian striker finds himself in a rich vein of form at the moment, and he comes into this clash full of confidence. Evanilson has scored in each of his last three successive league matches, which were against Chelsea, Sunderland and Man United. He accrued 13 shots across those games, which shows just how easily Bournemouth have been able to carve out chances, and Evanilson is usually the target going forward. 

Leeds are conceding an average of 15.0 shots per game when playing away this season, with exactly a third of those hitting the target. James Trafford has been kept busy when Leeds play away, and he will have to be wary of the threat posed by Evanilson this weekend.

Bournemouth have been in excellent form going forward, scoring 14 goals in their last five matches alone. That includes three successive 3-0 victories against Aston Villa, AC Milan and Man United. Marco Rose’s men seem to be playing with much more confidence recently, and their front line is firing. They have cleared this line on their own in four of their last five games. 

Leeds haven’t quite been as expansive, but this selection landed in both league meetings last season. It finished 2-2 at the Vitality Stadium, and 2-2 in the reverse fixture at Elland Road. Once again, another even encounter is expected at the weekend.

The Cherries have one of the worst disciplinary records in the league, having already picked up 22 yellow cards. Only Brentford have been carded more times than Bournemouth this campaign. 

Despite their positive form in recent weeks, cards have remained a target. In fact, at least five cards have been shown in each of their last five matches across all competitions.

Referee Tony Harrington was kept busy midweek, as he dished out a total of six yellow cards, with three to either side. There were 28 fouls given midweek, and this selection landed in the first half alone. That has been a theme for Bournemouth so far - their games can be quite chaotic, with plenty of space to exploit in midfield areas.

Bournemouth’s defensive players have accounted for most of those bookings, but their forwards have been intense in their press. Evanilson is averaging 1.72 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season, while Justin Kluivert is at 2.54 fouls per 90. Those two should both find duels against James Justin this weekend, who has been playing at centre back recently.

Justin has been adept at drawing contact this season, landing this selection in seven of his eight starts. His average of 1.27 fouls drawn per 90 in the league is one of the highest figures in the Leeds squad, and he has an excellent matchup to increase those figures at the Vitality Stadium.

Ethan Ampadu has been in the wars recently, and he has been carded in each of his last three successive league starts. In that time, he has racked up a total of ten infringements. The Welshman likes to be aggressive in the heart of midfield, and he will have the tough task of trying to contain those in-form Bournemouth attackers. 

Evanilson is averaging 1.98 fouls drawn per 90 in the league this season, while Marcus Tavernier is not too far behind with 1.35 fouls drawn per 90. Both of those should find duels against Ampadu in midfield this weekend, which bodes well for this selection.

Adam Smith drew three fouls during Bournemouth’s 3-0 victory at Man United last weekend - no Bournemouth player drew more infringements in that game.

What the 35-year-old lacks in athleticism, he certainly makes up for with his experience, and he can be quite a difficult player to come up against. Smith is averaging 1.67 fouls drawn per 90 this season, and he has landed this selection in eight out of ten starts overall. 

Leeds have been a good side to target for committing fouls this season, and they have racked up 50 infringements in their last three games alone. That includes 14 fouls against Sunderland, 16 against Man United, and 20 against Arsenal.

Enzo Le Fee has been a magnet for drawing fouls this season, and he was fouled twice against Leeds last weekend. The Frenchman is averaging 2.4 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has landed this bet in six out of nine starts overall.

Le Fee is given plenty of freedom by Regis Le Bris in that advanced midfield spot, and he likes to spot around and pick up pockets of space. 

Le Fee excels at using his body to draw contact and win free-kicks in dangerous positions, and he will find duels against Caleb Yirenkyi in midfield this weekend. The Coventry midfielder is averaging 3.1 fouls per 90 across all competitions this campaign.

Ruben Dias is averaging 1.6 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, which is one of the highest figures in the City squad.

He has been an aggressive presence at the back for Enzo Maresca, who likes his centre backs to be aggressive in their duels to win possession back quickly and sustain pressure. Dias has recorded multiple infringements in five of his last six starts, with the only miss coming against PSG in that stretch. However, Dias was replaced at half-time. 

The Portuguese centre back will now have to deal with Charalampos Kostoulas, who has been fouled 11 times in his last seven starts. That is a matchup to keep an eye on.

There was no love lost for Conor Gallagher last weekend, as he took just 16 minutes to pick up a yellow card against his former club, Chelsea.

The midfielder came on to replace the injured James Maddison, and was booked shortly after for a cynical foul. With Maddison expected to miss out this weekend with a groin injury, Gallagher looks set to start. He is averaging 1.57 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, and he landed this selection in the last game he started. 

Gallagher recorded two infringements against Man United, and he will now find duels against the likes of Adam Wharton and Daichi Kamada in midfield. The Palace pair have combined for 2.9 fouls drawn per 90 in the league this season.

David Affengruber averaged 1.1 fouls per 90 for Elche last season, and that figure has increased to 1.4 fouls per 90 since arriving at Fulham. He has been called for six infringements in his last three starts alone, which shows how he has taken a bit of time to adjust to life in the Premier League. 

He will have to deal with the in-form Nicolas Jackson this weekend, which promises to be a difficult assignment. Aston Villa in general have been a team to target for drawing fouls this campaign, ranking fifth in the division for total fouls suffered. Based on that, this looks like a great matchup to target Affengruber for a couple of infringements.

Bournemouth have found their feet after a tough start to the Premier League season, and they come into this match having won each of their last five matches across all competitions. They are not short of talent in the final third, and Ryan Christie perhaps goes under the radar as a player who poses a threat going forward. 

The Scottish international is averaging 3.15 shots per 90 across all competitions this campaign, which is one of the highest figures in the Bournemouth squad. Even last season, he had an average of 2.12 shots per 90 across all competitions, rising to 3.09 when playing at the Vitality Stadium.

Brandon Thomas-Asante is averaging 2.2 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, making him one of Coventry’s main threats in the final third.

The winger likes to be direct when he receives possession, looking to move inside rather than staying out wide. Frank Lampard has used Thomas-Asante on the left wing, right wing and through the centre, which highlights his versatility and importance in forward areas. 

Sunderland are conceding an average of 12.5 shots per game across all competitions this season, rising steeply to 14.3 when playing away. The Black Cats haven’t been too convincing on their travels this campaign, so Thomas-Asante should find chances here.

Fabian Hurzeler opted for rotation midweek, so Charalampos Kostoulas was completely left out of the squad. The Greek international has had a week to rest and prepare for this fixture, and he registered four shots against Liverpool last weekend.

One of those efforts hit the target, meaning Kostoulas has landed this selection against Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Man United this season. He thrives in tougher matchups. 

Brighton found plenty of success going forward against Man City midweek, And Georginio Rutter recorded five shots, of which four hit the target. Kostoulas will likely lead the line this weekend, and based on those numbers from Rutter, he has every reason to be looking forward to this game.

Sandro Tonali accounted for two of Tottenham’s 15 shots against Chelsea last weekend, taking his average to 1.7 shots per 90 across all competitions this season.

This upcoming clash looks like an excellent chance for him to improve those figures, as Palace have been one of the worst defensive units in the Premier League so far. They are conceding an average of 16.9 shots per game in the league, and no side has conceded more goals than them this term. 

There should be plenty of opportunities for Tonali to get forward, and he isn’t shy to try his luck from distance. Both efforts against Chelsea last weekend came from outside the box.

Nicolas Jackson put in his best performance in a Villa shirt so far against Man City last week, scoring twice from three shots to secure the three points for Unai Emery’s side.

I’m not surprised that Jackson is improving under Emery, the Villa boss has a track record of improving the movement and finishing of strikers with a good example being the development of Ollie Watkins under Emery.

Jackson has had more shots on target than any other Aston Villa player in the Premier League this season (7 - 1.14 per 90). 

He’s had a shot on target in each of his last four Premier League starts, managing multiple efforts on target in three of these games.

I’m not convinced at all by the direction that this Fulham side have taken under Arbeloa. They’re conceding 14.00 shots per game, and could struggle to handle the threat of Jackson who will be full of confidence following his brace last week.

Forest’s league position and goals scored aren’t representative of how well they’ve played.

They have the 5th-highest xG in the league and their expected points has them 10th not 18th.

Brentford rank 13th for xGA and have conceded in six out of eight this season and they gave Hull, the team with the lowest xG in the league plenty of chances last week (1.57xG).

Leeds have backed Farke and it’s paying off.

They’re 7th, they’ve scored in six of eight league games and were unlucky not to net against Sunderland, missing two big chances.

Bournemouth have kept just two clean sheets - against a 10-man Sunderland and a toothless Man Utd.

The Cherries have scored in all bar one game in the Premier League, averaging an impressive 1.61 xG and have scored 11 in their last four in all comps.

These two played out a brilliant 2-2 draw in the Carabao Cup in midweek, making it 10 of the last 12 head-to-head meetings with three or more goals.

These two average 3.63 and 3.75 match goals, respectively and rank 2nd and 3rd in the league for expected goals for.

An early goal sets the tone here and could lead to one of the games of the season.

Boro blew away Bolton last Friday with a 5-1 demolition.

They’re incredible in attack, especially with Cozier-Dubbery and Lankshear in red-hot form. 

Nobody creates more chances in the Championship, with Boro averaging a huge 2.17 xG.

They’ve scored 2+ in every Championship home game except against Wolves.

Charlton haven’t won since August and have conceded 2+ in each of their last three.