Man City

Man City have won six of their eight home matches across all competitions this season, and their recent games have been exciting to watch.

Over 3.5 goals has landed in five successive matches at the Etihad Stadium, with both teams finding the back of the net in all of those. Ipswich and Sunderland combined for a total of five goals in Manchester, while AEK Athens also scored against City in the Champions League. 

The Seagulls found plenty of success in Manchester midweek, recording 17 shots of which six hit the target. They were unfortunate to lose out on penalties in the end, but will be confident of causing problems again in the final third.

Brighton have made a strong start to the Premier League season, boasting the record of five wins, one draw and two losses from their eight games so far, putting them just five points behind both Arsenal and Man City.

Despite that, the Seagulls have one of the worst disciplinary records in the division, and they have landed this selection in seven of their eight league matches. That includes picking up two yellow cards against Liverpool last weekend, despite having 65% possession at Anfield, and four yellows against Arsenal back in September. 

Brighton landed this selection midweek as well, as Michael Svobody, Lewis Dunk and Mats Wieffer were all booked.

Chema Andres committed two fouls against Liverpool last weekend before being replaced after 54 minutes. The Spaniard missed out midweek, but his injury was confirmed to only be minor, so there is confidence around the Brighton camp that he will return this weekend.

Andres has adapted seamlessly to life under Fabian Hurzeler, and Brighton have won four of the five matches he has started. In that time, Andres has picked up two bookings, and he has recorded multiple infringements in all five. 

He is averaging 2.57 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, which shows how he likes to get stuck into duels, and he usually has plenty of work to do in Brighton’s midfield.

Andres will be primarily up against Rayan Cherki in midfield, but Jeremy Doku should also occupy a similar zone of the field as Andres. Those two are likely to find duels in transition, or when the Belgian international cuts inside. 

Doku was fouled four times against Aston Villa last weekend, taking his average to 3.8 fouls drawn per 90 this season.

The winger has established himself as one of the toughest players in the Premier League to contain in one-on-one scenarios, and he is always looking to be positive. Given that Brighton are averaging 12.4 fouls per game in the league this season, it looks like a favourable matchup to back this selection.

Yasin Ayari went closest to scoring for Brighton at Anfield last weekend, and the Swedish international was guilty of missing a huge chance in the first-half to give his side the lead. Ayari almost atoned for his mistake soon after, but was denied by the post.

He finished the game with three shots meaning he has landed this selection in all seven Premier League starts this season. 

Ayari started against Man City midweek in a defensive midfield position, but he still landed this selection with ease, finishing the match with four shots. He is likely to return to a more advanced role this weekend, making him a target for shots once again.

Adam Smith drew three fouls during Bournemouth’s 3-0 victory at Man United last weekend - no Bournemouth player drew more infringements in that game.

What the 35-year-old lacks in athleticism, he certainly makes up for with his experience, and he can be quite a difficult player to come up against. Smith is averaging 1.67 fouls drawn per 90 this season, and he has landed this selection in eight out of ten starts overall. 

Leeds have been a good side to target for committing fouls this season, and they have racked up 50 infringements in their last three games alone. That includes 14 fouls against Sunderland, 16 against Man United, and 20 against Arsenal.

Enzo Le Fee has been a magnet for drawing fouls this season, and he was fouled twice against Leeds last weekend. The Frenchman is averaging 2.4 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has landed this bet in six out of nine starts overall.

Le Fee is given plenty of freedom by Regis Le Bris in that advanced midfield spot, and he likes to spot around and pick up pockets of space. 

Le Fee excels at using his body to draw contact and win free-kicks in dangerous positions, and he will find duels against Caleb Yirenkyi in midfield this weekend. The Coventry midfielder is averaging 3.1 fouls per 90 across all competitions this campaign.

Ruben Dias is averaging 1.6 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, which is one of the highest figures in the City squad.

He has been an aggressive presence at the back for Enzo Maresca, who likes his centre backs to be aggressive in their duels to win possession back quickly and sustain pressure. Dias has recorded multiple infringements in five of his last six starts, with the only miss coming against PSG in that stretch. However, Dias was replaced at half-time. 

The Portuguese centre back will now have to deal with Charalampos Kostoulas, who has been fouled 11 times in his last seven starts. That is a matchup to keep an eye on.

There was no love lost for Conor Gallagher last weekend, as he took just 16 minutes to pick up a yellow card against his former club, Chelsea.

The midfielder came on to replace the injured James Maddison, and was booked shortly after for a cynical foul. With Maddison expected to miss out this weekend with a groin injury, Gallagher looks set to start. He is averaging 1.57 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, and he landed this selection in the last game he started. 

Gallagher recorded two infringements against Man United, and he will now find duels against the likes of Adam Wharton and Daichi Kamada in midfield. The Palace pair have combined for 2.9 fouls drawn per 90 in the league this season.

David Affengruber averaged 1.1 fouls per 90 for Elche last season, and that figure has increased to 1.4 fouls per 90 since arriving at Fulham. He has been called for six infringements in his last three starts alone, which shows how he has taken a bit of time to adjust to life in the Premier League. 

He will have to deal with the in-form Nicolas Jackson this weekend, which promises to be a difficult assignment. Aston Villa in general have been a team to target for drawing fouls this campaign, ranking fifth in the division for total fouls suffered. Based on that, this looks like a great matchup to target Affengruber for a couple of infringements.

Bournemouth have found their feet after a tough start to the Premier League season, and they come into this match having won each of their last five matches across all competitions. They are not short of talent in the final third, and Ryan Christie perhaps goes under the radar as a player who poses a threat going forward. 

The Scottish international is averaging 3.15 shots per 90 across all competitions this campaign, which is one of the highest figures in the Bournemouth squad. Even last season, he had an average of 2.12 shots per 90 across all competitions, rising to 3.09 when playing at the Vitality Stadium.

Brandon Thomas-Asante is averaging 2.2 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, making him one of Coventry’s main threats in the final third.

The winger likes to be direct when he receives possession, looking to move inside rather than staying out wide. Frank Lampard has used Thomas-Asante on the left wing, right wing and through the centre, which highlights his versatility and importance in forward areas. 

Sunderland are conceding an average of 12.5 shots per game across all competitions this season, rising steeply to 14.3 when playing away. The Black Cats haven’t been too convincing on their travels this campaign, so Thomas-Asante should find chances here.

Fabian Hurzeler opted for rotation midweek, so Charalampos Kostoulas was completely left out of the squad. The Greek international has had a week to rest and prepare for this fixture, and he registered four shots against Liverpool last weekend.

One of those efforts hit the target, meaning Kostoulas has landed this selection against Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Man United this season. He thrives in tougher matchups. 

Brighton found plenty of success going forward against Man City midweek, And Georginio Rutter recorded five shots, of which four hit the target. Kostoulas will likely lead the line this weekend, and based on those numbers from Rutter, he has every reason to be looking forward to this game.

Sandro Tonali accounted for two of Tottenham’s 15 shots against Chelsea last weekend, taking his average to 1.7 shots per 90 across all competitions this season.

This upcoming clash looks like an excellent chance for him to improve those figures, as Palace have been one of the worst defensive units in the Premier League so far. They are conceding an average of 16.9 shots per game in the league, and no side has conceded more goals than them this term. 

There should be plenty of opportunities for Tonali to get forward, and he isn’t shy to try his luck from distance. Both efforts against Chelsea last weekend came from outside the box.

Nicolas Jackson put in his best performance in a Villa shirt so far against Man City last week, scoring twice from three shots to secure the three points for Unai Emery’s side.

I’m not surprised that Jackson is improving under Emery, the Villa boss has a track record of improving the movement and finishing of strikers with a good example being the development of Ollie Watkins under Emery.

Jackson has had more shots on target than any other Aston Villa player in the Premier League this season (7 - 1.14 per 90). 

He’s had a shot on target in each of his last four Premier League starts, managing multiple efforts on target in three of these games.

I’m not convinced at all by the direction that this Fulham side have taken under Arbeloa. They’re conceding 14.00 shots per game, and could struggle to handle the threat of Jackson who will be full of confidence following his brace last week.

Forest’s league position and goals scored aren’t representative of how well they’ve played.

They have the 5th-highest xG in the league and their expected points has them 10th not 18th.

Brentford rank 13th for xGA and have conceded in six out of eight this season and they gave Hull, the team with the lowest xG in the league plenty of chances last week (1.57xG).

Leeds have backed Farke and it’s paying off.

They’re 7th, they’ve scored in six of eight league games and were unlucky not to net against Sunderland, missing two big chances.

Bournemouth have kept just two clean sheets - against a 10-man Sunderland and a toothless Man Utd.

The Cherries have scored in all bar one game in the Premier League, averaging an impressive 1.61 xG and have scored 11 in their last four in all comps.

These two played out a brilliant 2-2 draw in the Carabao Cup in midweek, making it 10 of the last 12 head-to-head meetings with three or more goals.

These two average 3.63 and 3.75 match goals, respectively and rank 2nd and 3rd in the league for expected goals for.

An early goal sets the tone here and could lead to one of the games of the season.

Boro blew away Bolton last Friday with a 5-1 demolition.

They’re incredible in attack, especially with Cozier-Dubbery and Lankshear in red-hot form. 

Nobody creates more chances in the Championship, with Boro averaging a huge 2.17 xG.

They’ve scored 2+ in every Championship home game except against Wolves.

Charlton haven’t won since August and have conceded 2+ in each of their last three.