With just three wins to their name this season we won’t be seeing the Titans in the play-offs, but this is a hugely important game for the Jaguars. Win and the seal the division and they could potentially, if results go their way, even seal the first round bye. However, lose and the Texans, assuming they win, steal the division and force the Jags to start the play-offs on the road. 

There’s nothing the Titans would love more than to play spoiler and scupper the hopes of their divisional rivals. The Titans have improved so much over the past month, winning two games outright, and they’ve now covered the spread in five of their last eight. I still think the Jags win this but 12.5 points is a huge spread and I want the underdog here.

It’s looking like the Eagles will rest Jalen Hurts and a number of the other Eagles starters against the Commanders, which would normally make me fade them but on their home field, I still think they’ll have more than enough to cover the spread against a terrible Commanders team.

With Jayden Daniels shut down for the season and Marcus Mariota doubtful to play, it’ll mean another appearance for Josh Johnson, a player so far below being an NFL-calibre starting quarterback. I simply can’t back a Commanders team who’ve failing to cover the spread just six times all season and who have failed to cover in 71.4% of their road games.

The Patriots come into this as 10.5-point favourites, but I’m not tackling that spread. It’s one of those that they really should cover, but double digits in the final game week are always scary, with teams often looking to finish in style. However, I’m absolutely certain the Patriots win, given they know that a victory would seal them the first-round bye if the Broncos were to lose against the Chargers.

When these teams met in Week Two, it was close with the Patriots winning 33-27, but there is a big gulf in quality between the teams. The Pats’ defense actually ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL in DVOA, two spots below the Dolphins, and I don’t know if they’ll be able to do enough to keep the Dolphins at a 10.5 point gap, but I am confident in their ability to get the win.

The Patriots' offense ranks sixth in DVOA, and they seem capable of putting up big numbers at will. We have to back that to continue, especially when they’ve broken 30 points in three of their past four games and look so dominant in the trenches.

Across the whole season, they’ve averaged 28.3 points per game, the fifth most in the league, and face a Dolphins team low on confidence, when they themselves have something at stake. The offense will do their bit and put up 30+ points.

The Patriots' backfield scares me. TreVeyon Henderson is so clearly the best running back on the team, but they do still show Rhamondre Stevenson some love. Last week, Henderson carried the ball 19 times for 82 yards and looked electric against the Jets, but it was Stevenson who scored the touchdown.

I don’t believe that keeps happening. Henderson has too much pop and energy; he’s the best playmaker on the team, and the data backs that up. Since Stevenson’s return from injury in Week 12, we’ve seen Henderson have more carries in the red zone, with 12 to Stevenson’s 13, as well as having the same amount of targets.

We’ve seen rookie Quinn Ewers start twice now for the Dolphins, and they’ve been very different games. First time out, he threw for 260 yards in the loss to the Bengals, who only managed 172 yards in the win over the Bucs last week, so we really need to consider the game script of this one.

The Patriots are favourites and big ones at that, so we’re likely seeing the Dolphins play from behind, which should mean the former Texas man throwing the ball a lot. The Patriots' defense are allowing 198.3 passing yards per game, but with the Dolphins chasing the team and Mike McDaniel coordinating, we should see Ewers given plenty of opportunity to pass.

On paper this is a very easy win for the Jaguars. They’re leading the AFC South with 12 wins, nine more than the Titans and they’re riding a seven game winning streak. Not only that, but they beat this Titans outfit 25-3 just five weeks ago.

The Jags do have the talent to blow them away if everything clicks, so I’m going conservative and just taking Jacksonville on the moneyline. This Jags offense is really popping in recent weeks as Liam Coen has worked his magic, and the defense has hugely upgraded itself from last year, and they now rank seventh in DVOA.

This looks like a line that we have to attack. 16.5 points feels really low for a Titans team who look to have really figured things out over the past month. Since the Titans last played, and lost, to the Jags, they’ve had four games, winning two and looking better on both sides of the ball.

They’ve scored an average of 26.75 points per game in that time span, in stark contrast to their season average of 17.3. Having a rookie quarterback and rookie wideouts meant it was always going to take time, but it looks like things have started to change, so we’re taking them to go Over their total here.

When it comes to who will find the endzone for the Jaguars, there’s only one-man worth considering, and that’s Travis Etienne. The running back has scored 13 times this season, but what really stands out is that his 13 touchdowns are a near-perfect split between rushing and receiving TDs, which really highlights his threat all across the field.

He’s hitting form at the right time, with six touchdowns in the past month as the Jaguars surge into the playoffs. The Titans have given up 18 touchdowns to opposing running backs in 16 games this season and Etienne can be the beneficiary on Sunday.

This has been a redemption season for Trevor Lawrence, and under Liam Coen’s coaching, he’s finally looking like the generational talent that he was lauded as when he was drafted back in 2021. As the season has progressed, he’s looked better and better, cutting down on the number of mistakes he makes, while offering even more of the magic moments he’s capable of.

He’s averaged 234.5 passing yards per game this season, but that’s risen over the second half of the season, and he’s broken the 242 yard mark in five of his six previous games. I think he'll manage at least 247 passing yards here.