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AC Milan v Inter
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Kick Off: Monday 22nd April at 19:45
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Competition: Serie A
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Watch Live: TNT Sports 1
Inter could win the Serie A title on Sunday if they overcome rivals AC Milan at San Siro in what promises to be a spectacular Derby della Madonnina.
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Only a victory will do for the Nerazzurri if they are to claim the title in front of a Stadio Giuseppe Meazza packed with fans of one of their biggest rivals. It is a tantalising prospect for the side that has dominated Serie A from first to last this season.
No team has been able to get close to Simone Inzaghi’s side this season. The sole defeat they suffered was a 2-1 reverse against Sassuolo way back in September, while they have won an astonishing 26 of 32 fixtures. They have been breathtaking offensively, scoring 77 goals for the loss of just 17.
Milan have been comprehensively best of the rest, yet that has not been enough to be remotely close to the Nerrazzurri.
A strong season from Stefano Pioli’s side, though, is in danger of petering out after they suffered Europa League elimination at the hands of Roma in midweek. The Rossoneri were defeated 1-0 at home before succumbing 2-1 in the capital last Thursday, despite their hosts playing an hour with 10 men.
The seven-time European champions will feel they owe it to their fans to offer a response in this clash.
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AC Milan v Inter Cheat Sheet
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🏆 Match stats: Inter to continue derby dominance
Ominously from the perspective of much of Monday’s crowd, Inter have won the last five matches between these clubs and have lost only one of their last eight. All of these games have taken place since March 2022.
The games have typically been close fought yet the meeting in September was an embarrassing rout. Inter ran out 5-1 winners, despite their opponents have started the season with three successive wins.
Odds of 1.95 on Inter to win, therefore, look very attractive. Even 3.5 with a -1 handicap is worth some consideration given the margin between themselves and their neighbours.
It is also likely to be a game in which there are plenty of goals. Although three of the last four between these clubs have seen under three goals, these are two of the most attractive teams in Serie A this season. Indeed, Milan’s games have seen more goals than any other team outside the relegation zone.
Each of Inter’s last two games have produced at least three goals, while Simone’s side have scored exactly two goals in each of their last three. They have managed to score at least twice in seven of their previous nine in Serie A.
Milan, meanwhile, are also in scoring form. In their last four games, they have struck 11 goals.
With the odds showing 1.65 for Over 2.5 goals, there is value here.
Predictions:
⚽ Inter to win @ 1.95
⚽ Inter (-1) handicap @ 3.50
⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.65
🎯 Shooting stats: Martinez to star but look out for Loftus-Cheek
With 23 Serie A goals this season, Lautaro Martinez is clearly the biggest goal threat in this match. The Argentine is eight goals better off than any other player in the league this season and is striking at the rate of 0.91 per 90 minutes.
His accuracy rather than the volume of his shots is his greatest asset. Indeed, he failed to muster a single shot the last time these sides played but did register two assists.
Martinez does have at least two shots on target in each of his last three games but has failed to score in four Serie A outings for Inter. The best value for the striker, then, is for him to have two or more shots on target at 2.25.
Federico Dimarco is the other Inter player there is value on. He has become a significantly greater threat since the end of February. In the last seven league games, he has six shots on target. He had only mustered 10 in his previous 20. A price of 2.1 is worth considering.
Henrikh Mkhitaryan is another worth watching. Although he typically only plays around an hour, he has featured in every Serie A game this season and has two goals and seven assists this season. Both of his strikes were against the Rossoneri in their first match.
Milan only have one fewer shot on target in Serie A this season than their opponents (166 to 165), but theirs are far more evenly distributed. Christian Pulisic and Olivier Giroud lead the way ahead of Rafael Leao, but Ruben Loftus-Cheek has been coming into his own lately.
The former Chelsea youth has had a shot on target in 10 of his last 16 in Serie A, so odds of 2.7 are very generous indeed. He is being handed a freer role to support the attackers, making him more of an attacking threat.
Predictions:
⚽ Lautaro Martinez to have 2+ shots on target @ 2.25
⚽ Federico Dimarco to have 1+ shots on target @ 2.10
⚽ Ruben Loftus-Cheek to have 1+ shots on target @ 2.10
🛑 Fouls stats: Thuram and Martinez to be busy
Inter have been exceptionally clean this season, giving up only 42 yellow cards and no reds in their 32 Serie A matches. Milan, meanwhile, have seen 80 cards this term – nearly double the amount of their rivals.
Look for the home side to pick up more cautions and reds combined in this game, especially after their ill-tempered end to the Roma match in midweek, when they had six players booked in the second half.
Only three players committed multiple fouls in the previous derby: Davide Calabria, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Marcus Thuram. Calabria is 1.2 to commit a foul in this game while the Inter pair are 1.25.
Based on the season numbers, the Milan defender actually commits fewer fouls per 90 than Mkhitaryan and Thuram. The France striker gets the most minutes, so logically is the bet to follow here.
Inter spread their fouls around well, with Hakan Calhanoglu and Martinez the players who average over 1.5 per 90. Both can be backed at 1.67 to commit at least two indiscretions.
Milan coach Pioli has warned of changes after their loss to Roma, with the defence and midfield likely to be areas affected. Loftus-Cheek should maintain his place, and after committing at least two fouls in three of his last five Serie A games, he should be backed to do so again.
Predictions:
⚽ Lautaro Martinez to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.67
⚽ Marcus Thuram to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.20
⚽ Ruben Loftus-Cheek to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.44
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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