GIF Sundsvall v IFK Värnamo

GIF Sundsvall’s first win in 13 games, a surprise 3-2 victory over IFK Göteborg, was followed by a visit to title contenders BK Häcken. As expected, they were thoroughly outplayed and ended up losing 4-1 after managing to equalise just before half-time. The majority of the game was attack v defence, with Häcken accumulating 2.95 xG and Sundvall only managing 0.18 xG. This has been the story of the season for the Northerners, rarely winning the underlying numbers and being outplayed in most areas of the pitch. With nine points up to the in-form Degerfors in the relegation playoff spot, and four matches remaining, it looks a near impossible task staying in the division. As such, don’t expect GIF to mount much of a challenge with some tough games remaining. 

IFK Värnamo’s five-match unbeaten run came to an abrupt end at the weekend against the mightily impressive Kalmar FF, challenging for a top-three position, as they were overcome 3-1 after taking an early lead through Oscar Johansson. It now looks unlikely they can finish in the top half of Allsvenskan, however their season has been above all expectations and the football is increasingly cohesive and exciting. Two of the front three, the aforementioned Johansson and Allsvenskan’s second-highest scorer Marcus Antonsson (18 goals) have been formidable, while the summer addition Zeljkovic has struggled somewhat to make an impression.

Midfield enforcer Wenderson got sent off against Kalmar and will be unavailable here, however likely replacement William Kenndal is a decent player who has started plenty of games this season. With a squad firing on all cylinders, they should have too much for Sundsvall to handle.

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Varbergs BOIS v IF Elfsborg

Varberg claimed a massively important victory in their fight for survival in the six-pointer versus Helsingborg at the weekend, coming out victorious with a 3-1 scoreline. It was their first win in four matches and provided a nice cushion over Degerfors just below them, five points ahead in the quest to avoid a relegation playoff. They haven’t been as impressive as the last couple of seasons but have nonetheless been an exciting watch and managed to secure a few big wins. These have been too few and far between, though, with defeats being a more regular occurrence, losing 12 matches in the league. The defence has been an issue all season, losing by three goals or more on eight occasions, leading to a horrendous goal difference. From an attacking perspective, things have improved, only failing to score once in the last five, securing seven points in the process.

The team’s top scorer Robin Simovic, who has six goals in the league, got back on the scoresheet against Helsingborg after five games without scoring. Alexander Johansson also bagged the opener and now has four goals in Allsvenskan, surpassing his previous personal best.

Elfsborg’s season looked to be spiralling out of control just over a month ago, having played 12 matches without a win in all competitions, being dumped out of the UEFA Conference League qualifying while also losing to lower-league Oskarshamn in the Swedish cup, meaning they won’t take part in next season’s group stages. Things have turned around since, though, with the team showing just how exciting and dangerous they can be when on song. Four victories in a row, beating both Malmö FF and IFK Göteborg in the process, gave manager Thelin some much needed breathing room. Despite a loss and a draw since – with the draw turning to a win if Baidoo doesn’t blast his penalty far over the bar at the death last week – they are now sitting in the top half of the division in 8^th. While this isn’t much of an accomplishment for a team looking to challenge for Europe, it can be considered a positive after the season they’ve had. 

Although there has been plenty to work on defensively, with clean sheets hard to come by, Elfsborg tend to score in the vast majority of matches. Even during their toughest period, they only failed to score in 3 out of 12 games, showing their attacking prowess. With nine goals in their last five, we can expect them to continue their positive attacking play.

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Kalmar FF v Mjällby AIF

Kalmar FF go from strength to strength, showing remarkable improvements since Henrik Rydström took over as the manager. In 2020 they weren’t far from relegation, and two years later, are pushing hard to crack the top three of Häcken, Hammarby and Djurgården. Their form, especially in the last two months, has been scintillating, amassing more points than any other team in the division. An unbeaten run of eight matches, only drawing two and winning the remaining six, leaves them only one point behind the stuttering Djurgården who only a couple of matches ago were top of the division and now sit six points behind Häcken. Kalmar’s run-in is not too testing, an encounter with Hammarby in the penultimate game aside, and they’ll have a solid chance of moving up and securing European qualification with three wins in their last four.

Whereas their last five matches have seen two goals or more, in only two of those the over 2.5 has materialised. Kalmar’s defensive solidity can’t be overstated, especially at home where they’ve only conceded two goals in the last ten games, keeping a clean sheet in eight of those, winning by either a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline on each occasion.

Oliver Berg got back on the scoresheet after failing to find the net in the previous seven, while Nanasi continued his fine form, providing two assists to take his tally to 7 goal contributions in 12 matches for the club. The duo can be counted on to provide forward momentum and create a spark in a side often tasked with maintaining possession. 

Mjällby have solidified themselves as a reliable mid-table team at this point, not being involved in a relegation scrap since their promotion to Allsvenskan. Never easy to break down, their defensive tenacity is what separates them from the other teams in the bottom half, having conceded seven goals less than any side behind them in the table. In fact, only four Allsvenskan teams have conceded less goals all season, one of those being this midweek’s opponents Kalmar.

While form has been inconsistent of late – no wins in the last six – the only thing at stake at this stage is a top-half finish, meaning Mjällby can be content with their season whatever happens in the run-in. Last week’s 3-0 drubbing at the hands of Hammarby was an anomaly and the whole team will be determined to bounce back and be more defensively solid against Kalmar. Despite this, the home side have much more to play for and are playing significantly better currently, and will therefore be confident in securing a result.

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