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Arsenal v Aston Villa
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Kick Off: Saturday 18th January at 17:30
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Competition: Premier League
Arsenal return to Premier League action with a second consecutive home fixture, brimming with confidence after a morale-boosting victory over bitter rivals Tottenham. That much-needed win not only reignited their form but also provided a vital response following back-to-back cup disappointments.
As the Gunners look to sustain their league momentum, they face an Aston Villa side whose struggles on the road have been glaring. Wednesday’s hard-fought victory over Everton may have ended a 5-game losing streak away from home, but a trip to the Emirates presents an entirely different challenge.
⭐ Arsenal v Aston Villa Best Bet
Arsenal’s return to Premier League action was a welcome relief for fans after back-to-back defeats in domestic cup competitions. Their spirited victory over fierce rivals Tottenham restored confidence and kept them within touching distance of league leaders Liverpool, now trailing by just 4 points. Arsenal head into this fixture as firm favourites, buoyed by their strong home form and facing an Aston Villa side struggling for consistency on the road.
The Gunners’ recent cup losses marked a rare blemish on their otherwise formidable record at the Emirates. Before those defeats, Arsenal were unbeaten in league action at home this season, winning 11 of their 14 matches. A cornerstone of their success has been their league-best defensive record, conceding an average of just 0.7 goals per game at home and keeping 8 clean sheets across all competitions.
Aston Villa, on the other hand, have endured a dramatic slump in away form. Despite a hard-fought win against relegation-threatened Everton midweek, they previously suffered 5 straight away defeats in the Premier League. This sharp contrast to their early-season success on the road, where they won 5 of their first 6 games in all competitions, underlines their recent struggles. During their current downturn, Villa have scored only 3 goals in 6 away games while conceding a concerning 14.
Adding to Arsenal’s confidence is their victory in the reverse fixture earlier this season. Historically, Villa have found the Emirates an unforgiving venue, losing six of their last eight visits.
🟢 Arsenal v Aston Villa #WhatOddsPaddy Tip
This selection offers great value compared to the standard Bet Builder, where this combination is priced at 18.51. With the enhanced odds of 20/1, this bet becomes particularly intriguing for punters.
Havertz averages 2.36 shots per game, with 0.93 on target. Havertz has hit the target in his last 7 matches and 10 of his previous 11, underlining his ability to test the opposition goalkeeper consistently.
Hiss physical style often draws fouls from opposition defenders. Averaging 1.14 fouls won per game this season, he has been fouled multiple times in 9 matches, including 2 of his last 3 appearances. Against Villa specifically, he has averaged 1.33 fouls won across 3 encounters, putting him within striking range of this target.
Villa’s young forward has stepped up impressively, particularly of late with Duran’s absence, becoming a key attacking outlet. Rogers averages 1.89 shots per game, with 0.59 of those on target. His recent form is particularly notable, with a shot on target in 4 of his last 5 starts, a period in which he has also netted 3 goals.
Rogers combines his sharpness in front of goal with an ability to draw fouls due to his skill and directness. He averages 1.33 fouls won per game and has been fouled in each of his last 8 appearances. Impressively, he has drawn 2 or more fouls in 4 of those games, including a continued threat against Arsenal, where he averages exactly 2 fouls won.
👕 Arsenal v Aston Villa Predicted XI
🔍 Arsenal v Aston Villa Players to Watch
🟣 Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers is no stranger to high-stakes moments, having scored 3 goals in his last 5 matches. However, his fiery temperament has also seen him collect 6 yellow cards this season, more than any other Villa player. Intriguingly, Rogers tends to intertwine his attacking contributions with disciplinary issues, being carded in 3 of the 7 games in which he has found the net.
In a high-intensity fixture like this one, Rogers’ passion and determination could see him either on the scoresheet or in the referee’s book, or both.
📂 Arsenal v Aston Villa Cheat Sheet
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💻 Arsenal v Aston Villa Form and Tactics
Remarkably, Arsenal have not lost a Premier League game at home since falling to Aston Villa in last season’s corresponding fixture, amassing 10 wins and 3 draws since. Central to this resilience has been their league-leading defence, conceding an average of just 0.7 goals per game at home.
Mikel Arteta has recently shifted from a 4-4-2 formation to a more traditional 4-3-3 setup, prioritising increased attacking opportunities, sustained pressure, and enhanced defensive cover. With the best defensive record in the league and the second-best xGA, Arsenal are expected to remain disciplined, control possession (55% average), and try and exploit Aston Villa’s defensive frailties.
Aston Villa’s 1-0 victory at Goodison Park midweek offered a glimmer of hope amid a troubling period of away performances. It was just their second win in 8 away matches across all competitions (L6), with 4 of those losses coming by multiple-goal margins. Villa’s early-season form on the road, where they secured 5 wins in their 6 games, now feels like a distant memory. In their current slump, they have scored only 3 goals in 6 away games while conceding a worrying 14.
However, back-to-back clean sheets on the road appear significantly unlikely, that being something they have not achieved since February 2024. Adding to their cause for hope is manager Unai Emery’s return to familiar territory. Emery has a solid record at the Emirates, losing just twice in 6 meetings (W3, D1).
Villa’s typical 4-2-3-1 formation is expected to emphasise a compact defensive setup, with a focus on deep sitting and quick transitions. This approach aims to leverage their pace and attacking options on the break, testing Arsenal’s backline with dynamic counter-attacking play.
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🏁 Arsenal v Aston Villa Ref Watch
- Referee: Chris Kavanagh
| Average Cards (Y / R) | 5.20 / 0.20 |
| Fouls Given | 22.05 |
| Penalties | 0.15 |
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* We recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
