Aston Villa have netted 11 goals across their seven home matches this season, and have a real chance to disrupt Arsenal’s title charge here, with the Gunners missing Gabriel, Saliba and Mosquera for this fixture.

These absences mean that Arsenal will likely go with a centre pack pairing of Hincapie and one of Timber or White. This isn’t ideal, Hincapie is quite new to the Premier League, while Timber and White have been playing as right backs for the majority of the last few seasons.

Arsenal’s 1-1 draw against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge highlighted the potential issues the Gunners could face without their first choice centre back pairing. Arsenal are the best defensive side in Europe, but this is only the case when Gabriel and Saliba play - without the duo, they are naturally more susceptible to conceding goals.

Villa have won their last six matches across all competitions, netting 15 goals across these fixtures (2.5 per game) - including hitting four against Brighton last time out.

Aston Villa have won more fouls than any other side in the Premier League this season (194 - 13.8 per game). This has seen Villa draw 36 yellow cards from their opponents (2.57 per game), with 2+ cards displayed in 11 of their 14 matches - including all but two of their home matches in the league.

Arsenal rank quite low for yellow cards in the Premier League (18th - 18 yellow cards), but the reason for this is that the Gunners dominate the majority of the games they play in, and that probably won’t be the case here, with Villa boasting a strong home record which has seen them win five of their seven games at Villa Park.

Arsenal committed 16 fouls and picked up three yellow cards in this fixture last season, showing how their temperament can worsen when fronted with a higher standard of opposition. It’s also worth noting that Villa ranked first for fouls won last season as well, so it’s a consistent part of their game they can use to their advantage here. 

Onana has been a pivotal player in Villa’s recent resurgence, and has won 10 fouls across his seven starts in the Premier League this season (1.52 per 90). He offers size and stature which is otherwise missing in the middle of the park for Villa, and his physicality will be useful against Arsenal’s midfield trio.

Onana has won a foul in four of his last five Premier League appearances, winning 2+ fouls in two of these games. He’ll be up against Eberechi Eze, Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi, who combine for 2.85 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League - this could further increase here with Villa being the most fouled side in the Premier League this season (13.8 fouls won per game). 

His battle against Martin Zubimendi is quite a mismatch, Zubimendi is technically a better player than Onana - but may struggle with his physicality and size when the Belgian pushes forward. Zubimendi is the most likely to bring down Onana, with the Spaniard averaging 1.30 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League.

Matty Cash has committed 17 fouls across his 14 Premier League appearances this season (1.24 per 90). He’s picked up the joint most yellow cards for Aston Villa this season (3) and faces an awkward task against either Trossard or Martinelli.

Cash committed three fouls in the most recent meeting between the sides, which was a 2-2 draw at the Emirates. He was up against Trossard on that occasion, who was hauled down twice from the 10 duels he contested. Trossard is averaging 1.24 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season. 

Cash could also line up against Gabriel Martinelli, who may be useful for Arsenal against Aston Villa’s high defensive line. Martinelli is averaging 1.35 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season. Cash is also good to back for a foul, as he likes to push quite high up the pitch, with the fullbacks often where Villa get their width - he may have to make a few recovery challenges when tracking back. 

Strikers tend to play in streaks, and Watkins may be on the cusp of a much needed run of goalscoring form after netting twice against Brighton last time out. Watkins had only netted one goal for Aston Villa prior to that midweek clash, which is a tally well below the standard he’s set in recent seasons. 

Watkins has registered totals of 11+ goals in the Premier League in each of the last five seasons for Aston Villa, showing the level that he is capable of reaching. I think he suffered more than most from Villa’s dire form in the early weeks of the season, but should be able to benefit from their recent resurgence, which has seen them win each of their last six matches.

Watkins has quite a long history with Arsenal, and almost moved to the Emirates Stadium a few transfer windows ago when the Gunners were looking for a striker. He most recently netted against Arsenal at the Emirates back in 2024, as Villa ran out 2-0 winners and derailed Arsenal’s title challenge. 

Hincapie collected his first yellow card for Arsenal in their 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge. He was fortunate to get away with just a yellow on that occasion, as another referee may have interpreted his elbow on Trevoh Chalobah differently.

That incident highlights how aggressive Hincapie can be, and I think he may struggle a little here, with this set to be just his fourth Premier League start. Hincapie collected eight yellow cards across his 28 starts for Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga last season, while averaging 0.88 fouls committed per 90.

Despite often being labelled with the ‘defensive’ tag, Arsenal hold one of the highest defensive lines in the Premier League. That may change here with their usual centre backs unavailable, but Arteta has shown he’s willing to persist with it even without Gabriel and Saliba. 

Hincapie will be up against Watkins, who is very good at drawing fouls from centre backs, and isn’t in the usual mould of a Premier League striker. Watkins has won 17 fouls across his 14 Premier League appearances this season (1.44 per 90). 

Morgan Rogers started the season really slowly, like the rest of the Villa squad, but has found some form in recent weeks, with six goal contributions to his name across his 14 Premier League appearances.

He’s had 18 shots across these matches (1.30 per 90), with half of these shots finding the target (0.65 per 90). Rogers has never been a high shot volume player, but tends to save his best performances for big matches at Villa Park, with the 23-year-old often being the player that Villa look to when searching for something special.

Rogers has registered four goal contributions across his last five appearances for Aston Villa, so he enters the game with momentum. Villa should feel confident enough to take the game to Arsenal, with Unai Emery’s side on a winning streak spanning six matches.