The televised early Sunday afternoon kick off in the Premier League sees Chelsea travel to Villa Park to face Aston Villa. The home side are unbeaten in four but pressure is mounting for Steven Gerrard with two draws at Nottingham Forest and Leeds in the last two weeks. Chelsea’s new manager Graham Potter is flying and has won four in a row, only conceding one and scoring ten in that time.
Aston Villa sit two points above the relegation zone at the moment and are struggling for goals, with just seven in their nine games so far. With only two wins so far Gerrard’s side, which bolsters plenty of attacking threat, is seriously underperforming. They will be pleased that they have Leon Bailey, Matty Cash and Cameron Archer available once again but will continue to be without Lucas Digne, Ludwig Augustinsson and Boubacar Kamara, as well as Diego Carlos meaning their defence is depleted once again.
It was a surprise to many when Thomas Tuchel was sacked last month but Graham Potter is finding his feet and the results are showing, only conceding twice in the five games that he’s been in charge, including three clean sheets in their last three. They come into this off the back of a comfortable 2-0 win in Milan, which they controlled due to Fikayo Tomori’s controversial red card. However, they will be without Reece James who they lost in that game, and he may miss the World Cup. One player who will definitely miss the global competition is N’golo Kante who will be missing due to a hamstring injury. Wesley Fofana picked up an injury last week and was stretchered off, meaning he will also be unavailable here.
Aston Villa v Chelsea Bet Builder Tips
Chelsea to Win
Aston Villa had an impressive result last month here as they held Manchester City to a 1-1 draw. Five points looks good on the surface of it, however, they were held by a ten man Leeds and then drew at Nottingham Forest, and were seriously lacklustre on Monday night, creating only 0.66 xG. In their two games against “big six” opponents this season, they have picked up one point, losing 3-2 on aggregate. These results have been very respectable but expected goals suggest that these were more than a bit fortunate, as they lost 4.72-0.57 on xG. I expect this to catch up with them here and Chelsea to roll out as winners.
Chelsea have been very impressive under Graham Potter, with 11 goals scored and two goals conceded in his five games so far. The results have not been undeserved, and they have won every game on xG. In fact, not only have they had at least 1.34xGF in every game, but they have not conceded 1.0xG in any game in their five games. It may be a small sample size but with Aston Villa’s poor attacking record, Chelsea should be able to keep them at bay on Sunday. This is the fifth of five games in 16 days and that may be a worry for them but they have managed to rotate their squad and bring off players early in comfortable wins, as the last three have been.
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Prediction: Chelsea to Win
Phillipe Coutinho to have 2+ Shots
Phillipe Coutinho has been massively underwhelming at Aston Villa after starting off very impressively, leading to player, club and manager getting plenty of plaudits. However, this season he has not got a goal or assist yet and his place hasn’t even been guaranteed in many games. However, I still think he will start here and Gerrard will tell him that this is his last opportunity to shine, especially with Bailey coming back from injury. Nevertheless, in his seven starts, he’s managed 14 shots, and had at least two in five of these games. His minutes may be a slight concern but he only played 64 minutes at Nottingham Forest and still managed two shots. Gerrard has challenged the players to be more attacking, and the Brazilian will be keen to silence his doubters and try to rediscover his Liverpool form. He has averaged 2.50 shots per 90, slightly down on his 2.91 from last year. In his final year at Liverpool (and the first season with shot information available), he managed two shots against the Blues. Chelsea will also be without Reece James on the right hand side of their defence, and this is likely where Coutinho will find joy for the Villains.
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Prediction: Phillipe Coutinho to have 2+ Shots
Kalidou Koulibaly to have 1+ Shot
There were concerns for Kalidou Koulibaly’s minutes after he was not picked for Graham Potter’s first game against Salzburg but they have been quashed in recent weeks and he has played 90 minutes three times since then. Given Wesley Fofana and Reece James’ injuries, he should again slot into the back three, likely next to Cucurella and Thiago Silva. In the league so far this season, he has played six games and has had seven shots in these games. He has had at least one shot in five of the six and given he’s likely to start, and therefore play 90 minutes, this line seems generous.
Aston Villa have conceded nine shots to centre backs in the Premier League so far this season, including three in their game against Everton and four to Arsenal’s defensive duo of Gabriel and Saliba. These numbers are not the highest but given Koulibaly’s presence in the air – all 6’5 of him – he should manage to get a shot off.
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Prediction: Kalidou Koulibaly to have 1+ Shot
Chelsea to have 5+ Shots on Target
Another great value selection is Everton corners. Their last four have seen 5, 6, 5 and 7 corners, including the games against Liverpool and Man United. Frank Lampard’s men are capable of putting the pressure on when behind, as shown by the last 10 minutes in their last outing against United, and with this likely to be a low-scoring affair, and Spurs’ tendency to defend leads rather than attempt to add to them, I think this has a great chance to land for a fifth game in a row.
Spurs’ opponents have mustered 4, 6, 6 and 5 in their last 4 games also, so this has a great chance to land, however taking this a rung down to over 4 corners also has decent value, so if you would rather play it a little safer then this is the area to do it. 1.73 is still very appealing and would’ve landed in all of Spurs’ last four games, and in Everton’s last four also. But, for me, with the big jump in odds to 5 or more, this was too good to turn down.
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Prediction: Chelsea to have 5+ Shots on Target
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How to watch Aston Villa v Chelsea in the Premier League?
📅 When is Aston Villa v Chelsea? / Sunday, 16 October 2022, 14:00
🏟 Where is Aston Villa v Chelsea? / Villa Park (Birmingham)
📺 What TV channel is Aston Villa v Chelsea on? / Sky Sports Main Event 🟨 …And who is the referee for Aston Villa v Chelsea? / R. Jones 🏴
