💎 Gem Bet: Jamal Musiala - 2+ Fouls Won @ 1.83 (Bet365)

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I’m happy to keep taking this angle as long as the odds are this generous, we backed it recently and it landed via Super Sub with Musiala’s replacement in Bara Ndiaye winning two fouls in just six minutes from the bench after Musiala had already been dragged to the floor once.

It’s just as generous again this week, and his numbers are too good to ignore. Musiala has drawn 14 fouls across just 410 minutes of football in the Bundesliga this season (3.07 per 90). These are obviously inflated numbers given the small sample size, but Musiala’s record is just as convincing when looking across previous seasons:

2024/25: 2.47 fouls won p/90
2023/24: 1.99 fouls won p/90
2022/23: 1.75 fouls won p/90

This consistency when it comes to winning fouls is impossible to ignore at this price. You wouldn’t get 1.83 for players like Saka, Grealish or even Michael Olise, as a direct comparison in the Bayern squad (1.44), to win 2+ fouls, so it’s worth taking Musiala at this price until it inevitably drops given his record - which is very similar to the players I’ve mentioned.

To convince even further, Musiala came on for the final 29 minutes of Bayern Munich’s 4-3 win over Real Madrid at the Allianz Arena during the week and was fouled three times - showing just how strong Musiala is when it comes to winning fouls. 

Musiala is usually priced around 1.3-1.4 to win 2+ fouls, I’m confident this price won’t hold as he continues to climb towards full fitness, so we’re taking advantage of it again while we can.