Benfica open their Champions League campaign against Qarabag in a tie they’re expected to dominate. Still, the visitors know how to spring a surprise, I’ve picked out my two best bets below.

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• This will be the first-ever competitive meeting between Benfica and Qarabag.

• Qarabag’s most recent three qualifiers have produced a combined 15 goals (an average of five per game).

• Benfica’s Champions League ties averaged 3.33 goals last season.

🔴 Benfica’s Strong Start Masks Unconvincing Performances

With 10 points from their opening four league games, Benfica have made a decent start to the season, although the performances haven’t always been carried out with quite the same conviction we’ve come to expect.

Perhaps that’s harsh, but their goal difference, which stands at +5, would support the argument that they’re not exactly blowing teams away. 

Their most recent outing underlined that point, as they conceded a late equaliser to Santa Clara, despite their opponents having played with 10 men beyond the half-hour mark.

The underlying numbers were just as unflattering, with Benfica actually finishing 0.2 xG worse off than their opponents despite the numerical superiority. In fact, across the campaign so far, just once have they managed to separate themselves from their opponents by over 1xG.

⚫ Qarabag Yet to Hit Their Usual Domestic Standards

Qarabağ’s four points from their opening three matches are enough to place them 5th in the Azerbaijan Premier League. 

It’s early days, but their current return of 1.33 points per game is well below their usual standards. To put it into context, you’d have to go back to the 2020/21 campaign to find a season where they finished with fewer than 2.3 points per game.

Perhaps a more effective measure is to form a judgment according to their performances in the Champions League Qualifiers.

Qarabag benefited from a fairly straightforward route to this stage, facing Shelbourne, KF Shkendija, and Ferencvaros.

They beat the latter 6-3 on aggregate to seal their spot in the competition, despite recording fewer shots and xG in both legs.

📊 Benfica v Qarabag H2H

This will be the first competitive meeting between Benfica and Qarabag on record, so it’s all to play for at the Estádio da Luz.

Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Accumulator Tips, Gem Bets, and Champions League Football Predictions, as well as Football Betting Tips for this weekend, on Andy's Bet Club.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.