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Birmingham v Newcastle
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Kick Off: Saturday 8th February at 17:45
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Competition: FA Cup
In what was once a Premier League fixture as recently as 2011, League One leaders Birmingham City take on Newcastle United in FA Cup 4th Round action on Saturday night.
The Blues are unbeaten since the end of November, including 7 victories in their previous 8 in all competitions. Their latest success was when edging past in-form Stevenage in the EFL Trophy on Tuesday. Another side to progress in cup action during the week was Newcastle, completing a 4-0 aggregate triumph over Arsenal in the League Cup semis.
It was the perfect way to bounce back from 2 defeats in 3 in league action.
⭐ Birmingham v Newcastle Best Bet
This will be no easy cup tie for Newcastle. They are understandably and rightly favourites to progress to the next round, however, Birmingham have made a habit this season of winning games and proving hard to beat. Sure, that is 2 leagues lower than their Premier League opponents, however, they should be competitive and not disgraced here. 22 of their 27 league matches this season have ended below 3.5 goals. The same can be said of 16 of Newcastle’s 24 league contests in 2024/25.
Eddie Howe’s side will look to do a professional job here. The cups are a big priority this season, certainly more so than Birmingham, who have promotion on their minds. United had to negotiate a Carabao Cup clash with Arsenal on Wednesday, whereas Birmingham played and won on Tuesday in the EFL Trophy v Stevenage and had the chance to rest some key players. Premier League quality really should shine through in the end, but likely not in a dominant and 1-sided manner.
👕 Birmingham v Newcastle Predicted XI
🔍 Birmingham v Newcastle Players to Watch
🔵 Tomoki Iwata
The Japanese international is a key cog in the Birmingham wheel. His job is to collect the ball from the back 4 and try to progress the ball up the pitch. This won’t change just because they are facing Newcastle. This is because Chris Davies has his style and won’t really shift away from this approach too often. He will demand the ball under pressure, especially given he has played at a much higher level. Therefore, Newcastle will be quick to press him and they’ll have done their homework, and only 1 misjudged challenge could easily occur.
Over his previous 4 league appearances, the central midfielder has been fouled an average of 1.50 times per encounter. Keeping him quiet is to the benefit of Newcastle, but the Blues will look to get him on the ball, so this mini-battle is likely to be a relatively frequent event on the pitch.
⚫ Lewis Miley
Miley started in Newcastle’s last FA Cup clash when knocking out Bromley. This remains the only full match he has played all season and on that occasion, he found the back of the net. Eddie Howe is likely to freshen up his team in some areas following Wednesday’s exploits, and he’ll be really keen to make an impression.
It is a good time to come back into the team as well considering Newcastle are likely to be doing plenty of the attacking here. They are expected to do so against a League One side, albeit a very, very strong one. Howe will give him the freedom to get into advanced areas and try to add to his 1 goal from Round 3. He is just the type of player that Birmingham may struggle to get all eyes on. Miley will be looking to make well judged and well timed runs into the final third to offer his goal threat.
📂 Birmingham v Newcastle Cheat Sheet
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💻 Birmingham v Newcastle Form and Tactics
Birmingham are enjoying an 18-game unbeaten run in all competitions, 15 of which have ended in victory. 9 of those triumphs came alongside keeping a clean sheet. It is, therefore, no shock they possess the best defensive record in League One. 1 reason for this is how excellent they are at defending from the front. The Blues are ranked joint 1st in League One for the possession won in the final third (4.80 per game).
They unsurprisingly top their league for average possession per game with 66.4%. However, Chris Davies’ side are prepared to mix things up. This is proven by the fact they are joint-7th in their division for average accurate long balls per contest (26.3). Neat and tidy passing may be their preferred way of playing, but the team have scored the most League One goals from outside the box. This is a team prepared to try their luck from distance if struggling to break opponents down.
Although the opposition have made a habit of enjoying large periods of possession this season, that hasn’t necessarily been the case for Newcastle. In Premier League action, Saturday’s away side average 50.9% of the ball. However, they only average 17.7 accurate long balls per league encounter, so they will have to rely on 2nd balls it would seem if they do adopt a more direct approach. Perhaps a slight concern for Magpies boss Eddie Howe is how his side are out-performing their league xGA this season. This figure states they should have conceded roughly 9 goals more than they have done. The team is ranked 7th in the English top-flight for the most shots blocked, so they are at least willing to put their bodies on the line, something that could be linked to the xGA overperformance.
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🏁 Birmingham v Newcastle Ref Watch
- Referee: Matthew Donohue
| Average Cards (Y / R) | 4.00 / 0.24 |
| Fouls Given | 22.71 |
| Penalties | 0.12 |
📺 How to Watch Birmingham v Newcastle in the FA Cup
📅 When is Birmingham v Newcastle? / Saturday, 8 February 2025, 17:45
🏟 Where is Birmingham v Newcastle? / St. Andrew’s (Birmingham)
📺 What TV Channel is Birmingham v Newcastle on? / BBC One
🟨 …And who is the referee for Birmingham v Newcastle / Matthew Donohue 🏴
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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