💎 Gem Bet: Lewis Miller - Over 0.5 Fouls Committed @ 1.66 (Bet365)

This gem is best price with bet365. Sign up here and get £30 in free bets when you back this gem with £10.

Lewis Miller is less than half this price at Paddy Power, Betfair and Sky Bet (all have this selection priced at 1.30), and I believe those prices to be nearer the right number.

Miller is playing as a right sided central defender in a three, having been a right back for most of his career. The wide central defender positions are more likely to commit fouls than the central position, and I think there are a couple of specific tactical reasons in this match why Miller looks likely to foul.

Even in a typical match, Miller is good for at least one foul. He is averaging 1.21 fouls per 90, and he has committed at least one foul in five of his last six matches, with 11 fouls committed in those six matches.

In this match specifically, he will be playing behind inexperienced Academy product Matty Litherland, who has been impressive in his first two matches, but has more attacking attributes than defensive, and this area is likely to be targeted by Phil Parkinson.

Also, importantly, Kieffer Moore is highly likely to move out to the left and play in the space that Miller will be occupying. Moore is an aerial threat and a running threat as well. Moore has been fouled 1.67 times per 90 this season, and has been fouled in each of his last four league matches.