Ferguson has been a consistent asset in the tackles market and has been significantly overpriced on this occasion.

Despite taking on a more creative role this season, the Scottish midfielder has averaged 1.9 tackles per 90 minutes for Bologna. He’s managed at least one in 12 of his last 13 starts, only failing to do so as Bologna cruised past Monza in a 4-0 Coppa Italia round of 16 victory.

Their clash with Milan will not be comparable, with Bologna set to face Milan’s direct and fast-paced attacking style under Conceicao. He looks set to be forced into several tackles here.

Theo Hernandez’s impressive average of 1.53 shots per 90 is poorly reflected in these odds, with plenty of other Milan players who boast lesser averages having been priced significantly shorter.

The fullback has fired off at least one in six of his last seven appearances, although his form goes much further back than that and spans across all competitions too. Moreover, a recent tactical shift has further increased his value in the market. 

Milan’s switch to a 3-4-2-1 has seen the Frenchman move into a more offensive wing-back position. This suits Hernandez nicely, given his pace and other offensive attributes, and was likely one of the driving forces for the change.

The last clash between these sides, just last week, produced four goals as Milan won 3-1. Bologna found themselves pretty exposed at the back, at times, with Milan creating four big chances during the 90.

Both of these sides have seen 2+ goals scored in 29 of their 36 respective Serie A matches this term (an 81% hit rate). 2+ Goals have been scored in 12 of the last 13 head-to-head clashes between the pair, including all of the last six.

Although Milan and Bologna have been relatively evenly matched over the course of the season, form is firmly on Milan’s side coming into this clash. Last week, they beat Bologna 3-1, creating 1.68xG to Bologna’s 0.63.

Since then, Milan have been boosted by the likely return of three key players - Leao, Fofana, and Tomori. Meanwhile, in the only change to Bologna, they are expected to be without experienced centre-back Martin Erlic, who started last time out but was forced off through injury.

Milan have now won four games on the trot, whilst Bologna have struggled in recent weeks, recording just two wins in their previous seven. Milan look a generous price to win the trophy in 90 minutes.

In a mistake which the bookies seem to have made repeatedly this season, once again, Bologna have been very generously priced to keep a low card count.

Their league average of 1.64 per game ranks as Serie A’s third-lowest, trailing only Napoli and Inter in that respect. As such, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that they’ve kept under the three mark in 81% of their league matches to date. In recent times, Bologna have excelled in this department, bringing the selection home in each of their last 18 games across all competitions. It has also been a winner in all four of their Coppa Italia clashes en route to the final.

Milan’s record suggests that they’re not likely candidates to undermine this record. Milan’s opponents have averaged 2.08 cards per match, although the bulk of these have been at the San Siro. When on the road, this figure drops to just 1.56, with just three of their 18 league opponents being awarded 3+ cards.

Ferguson has been a constant in the fouls market, and once again, it seems the bookies haven’t quite accounted for his fouling consistency.

The midfielder has averaged 2.70 fouls per 90 in Serie A and 2.54 per 90 across all competitions, sinning regularly with little exception. Across his last 12 appearances spanning at least 30 minutes, Ferguson has sinned at least twice in all but two, and at least three times in nine of the 12.

His most likely direct opponent will be Christian Pulisic, who averages 1.34 fouls drawn per 90 - the second most of any Milan player.

At massive odds, backing both teams to score in the second half is a smart value bet. The selection came home when Milan and Bologna met last week, which shouldn’t come as a surprise given that both sides have already established reputations as teams who fail to express their offensive quality until the later stages of the game.

When on the road, Milan’s rate of 1.11 goals in the second half is pretty much double their first-half average of 0.56. That said, they’re also prone to late defensive lapses, averaging 0.83 conceded in the second half compared to 0.50 in the first. All in all, both teams have scored in the second half in 44% of their away league matches and 36% overall. This selection offers plenty of value.

It’s a similar story for Bologna, who have averaged just 0.44 goals per first half, but a much more impressive 1.06 in the second. Unfortunately, just like Milan, Bologna also concede more during the second period (0.64 compared to 0.5). The effect is particularly pronounced away from home, where they’ve conceded an average of 0.94 goals in the second half. Since the start of the season, this selection has come home in 31% of Bologna’s league matches.