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AC Milan v Bologna Bet Builder Quick Tips & Preview

AC Milan v Bologna Bet Builder Quick Tips & Preview

Tuesday 13 May, 20253 min read
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Oliver Shaw

Fuelled by a passion for sport and a sharp instinct for uncovering patterns in data, beating the bookies became the perfect outlet for my competitive streak. Now I take pleasure in sharing my finds with ABC punters. I enjoy finding niche angles and betting value in a range of markets and leagues, my favourite being in Serie A.

The Rossoneri look to have found their stride after an opening-day hiccup, while Bologna are still searching for fluency under Italiano. I've included my two best bets for the clash below.

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AC Milan v Bologna Quick Preview Tips
  • AC Milan v Bologna
  • Serie A
  • 19:45
2 Selections @ 2.73

AC Milan to Win

Perhaps courtesy of Milan’s disappointing opening-day defeat, I’m not sure the bookies have caught on to how serious a threat they could pose in Serie A this year.

The Rossoneri dominated Lecce last time out, allowing their opponents next to nothing in front of goal, and also impressing offensively. The 2-0 full-time score fails to reflect their dominance, and in particular omits the two goals they had chalked off by VAR. Milan boast the best underlying figures of any side in the league, and I expect them to breeze past Bologna.

With a win and a loss, Bologna’s form is comparable; however, their performances are less so. Vincenzo Italiano’s outfit are averaging a mere 0.46xG per game from open play, and look far from their best.

Over 1.5 AC Milan Cards

There’s also value in backing Milan to pick up two or more cards - a line which has landed in each of their last seven meetings with Bologna, including all three last season.

During their previous campaign, Milan averaged 2.11 cards per game; meanwhile, Bologna’s opponents drew them at a rate of 2.61 per 90. In fact, the Rossoblù saw at least two opposition players enter the book in a remarkable 89% of matches.

This selection also came home in both of their opening two matches this year, which is unsurprising given that Bologna have been Serie A’s most-fouled team. Matteo Marcenaro, who dishes out an average of 5.17 cards per game, has been delegated the responsibility of refereeing this affair.

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  • Milan have conceded the fewest xGA of any team in Serie A, and rank 2nd in the league for attacking output.

  • Bologna have created just 0.91xG from open play across two games.

  • Bologna’s home victory last season remains their sole league victory against Milan across their last 19 attempts.


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🔴 Milan Open Season Account 

There’s no denying Allegri gave Milan fans a scare with that 2–1 opening-day defeat to newly-promoted Cremonese, but the scoreline didn’t really tell the full story.

The Rossoneri fired off 24 shots to their opponents’ four and generated over nine times their xG. This dominance was a feature once again as they faced Lecce a week later, but this time a sharper edge in front of goal carried them to a well-merited 2–0 win.

Since the start of the season, only Lazio have created more xG than Milan; meanwhile, they also boast the best defensive record of any side.

Despite my Nerazurri-bound allegiances, I regrettably have them as dark horses this year, while they’re definitely a side to keep an eye on.


🔵 Rossoblù Attacking Numbers A Cause For Concern

Bologna will be mildly satisfied with the three points they picked up, having been handed a very tough opening schedule.

There were few talking points as they narrowly lost 1-0 on the road against Roma to open their campaign, but a 1-0 victory last time round against a much-improved Como side represented an impressive rebound on paper.

That said, Bologna have looked unusually blunt for a Vincenzo Italiano side, managing just 1.68xG so far, with barely over half of that (0.91) coming from open play. Against a Milan outfit who look really tight at the back, that lack of creativity is a real concern.


📊 AC Milan v Bologna H2H

These two sides met twice as recently as May, with very different outcomes prevailing. The first time round, Milan ran out as comfortable 3-1 winners at the San Siro. The stats backed up their control, with Milan creating 1.68xG to Bologna’s 0.63, and controlling play.

Milan replicated this dominance just days later when they faced off once again in the Coppa Italia final; however, on that occasion, Bologna got their revenge, recording a 1-0 win against the run of play.

Looking further back, the Rossoneri have generally got the better of their opponents in this fixture. They’re unbeaten in an impressive 18 of the last 19 league meetings, with only four of those games producing draws.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Accumulator TipsGem Bets, and European Football Predictions, as well as Football Betting Tips for this weekend, on Andy's Bet Club.

We've got plenty of content for Sunday's fixtures, including Burnley v Liverpool Predictions and Sunday's European Acca Tips. There is also Bayern Munich v Hamburg Bet Builder Tips and a Sunday Football Acca, plus Premier League Player Prop Tips.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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