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Bournemouth v Brighton Bet Builder Quick Tips & Preview

Bournemouth v Brighton Bet Builder Quick Tips & Preview

Wednesday 10 September, 20253 min read
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Oliver Shaw

Fuelled by a passion for sport and a sharp instinct for uncovering patterns in data, beating the bookies became the perfect outlet for my competitive streak. Now I take pleasure in sharing my finds with ABC punters. I enjoy finding niche angles and betting value in a range of markets and leagues, my favourite being in Serie A.

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Bournemouth v Brighton Quick Preview Tips
  • Bournemouth v Brighton
  • Premier League
  • 15:00
2 Selections @ 3.33

Antoine Semenyo to Score or Assist

Backing the in-form Semenyo to register a goal contribution looks a neat angle as Bournemouth host Brighton, who have averaged over 1.6 xGA per 90 so far this season.

The winger has already rmanaged two goals and an assist this season, and has routinely looked the sharpest player on the pitch, be it against Liverpool, Wolves, or Tottenham.

Last season, he managed a goal or an assist in 41% of his league games, narrowly exceeding the implied probability on offer here of 40% - and that’s despite him clearly having stepped things up since then.

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Kaoru Mitoma to Commit 1+ Fouls

This second tip is shorter in odds, use the ABC betslip to back Semenyo as a single if you'd rather not combine them.

I also think there’s value to be found in backing Mitoma to commit at least one foul, given his track record and Bournemouth’s expansive style of play.

Only Sasa Lukic of Fulham can top the 10 fouls Mitoma has committed after three league games. Mitoma carried this form into the international break, where he sinned three times against Mexico, making it 4/4 for this bet.

Last year, he averaged 1.4 fouls per 90, and with Bournemouth the 2nd-most fouled side in the league (13.0 per game), Mitoma should once again find himself doing more defensive work than he’d like.

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Both Bournemouth and Brighton have shown flashes of quality early doors, and we should be in for a cracking match. I’ve picked out a couple of betting angles that stand out to go along with it.

  • Brighton have dominated in recent meetings with Bournemouth, winning five of the last six.

  • Only Liverpool have taken points off Bournemouth so far, despite the Cherries putting in a strong display at Anfield.

  • Brighton rank 3rd in the league for expected goals with 6.2, although that’s largely courtesy of the three penalties they’ve received.


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🔴 Strong Early Numbers Support Bournemouth’s Form

Bournemouth have impressed from the off this season, with their only dropped points came against Liverpool in GW1 - a game they could easily argue they deserved more from.

Since then, they’ve strung together back-to-back 1–0 wins over Wolves and Spurs. The scorelines may suggest tight contests, but in truth, Andoni Iraola’s men were in complete control, allowing a combined total of 11 shots, two on target, and 0.65 xGA across the two matches.

Their trip to Tottenham was particularly eye-catching as Bournemouth suffocated their hosts, racking up four times as many shots, six times as many efforts on target, and more than eight times the expected goals of the North Londoners.


🔵 Brighton Bounce Back with Statement Win

It’s been a real mixed bag for Brighton this season, who bounced back from two disappointing results against Fulham and Everton, to deservedly beat Man City 2-1.

Although they rank 3rd in the league for expected goals with 6.2, this figure is somewhat deceiving given that Brighton have been awarded a penalty in each of their three matches so far.

I’m convinced that Brighton will perform well this season and expect them to finish in the European positions; however, it doesn’t quite feel like they’ve clicked yet. It remains to be seen whether the tactically astute Fabian Hürzeler is able to sort things out in time for this test.


📊 Bournemouth v Brighton H2H

Fans were treated to a real spectacle the last time these sides met back in February, as Brighton edged it, winning 2-1 at the Amex.

Bournemouth dominated 57% of possession and fired in 19 shots, but Brighton were clinical, converting from the spot through João Pedro before Danny Welbeck struck the winner. The underlying stats suggest this was a fair result, with the Seagulls accumulating 2.42 xG to Bournemouth’s 1.46.

A few months earlier, Brighton also came out on top at the Vitality, claiming a 2-1 victory, despite registering just six shots to Bournemouth’s 19. They were badly hampered as Carlos Baleba saw red just before the hour mark, but managed to hold out until the full time whistle.

There’s typically no shortage of goals when these sides meet, with each of the last four seeing the net ripple at least three times. Over the last six, Brighton have been the dominant force, with five wins and just one loss.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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