Douglas Santos looks like he’ll be Ancelotti’s pick at left back to start the tournament for Brazil, and this is a pretty nice price for the fullback to draw at least one foul from a Morocco side that can be really stubborn when out of possession.

Santos is encouraged to get forward by Ancelotti, materialising in an assist for the Zenit player in one of Brazil’s warm-up matches against Panama. This forward-thinking nature is likely to be supported by his coach, who will want Brazil to be as expressive as possible. 

Santos maintained a foul won average of 0.70 per 90 during the 25/26 season for Zenit, which is a decent record, but what stands out to me more is his opponents, Brahim Diaz and Achraf Hakimi. Morocco’s success in recent years has come from being very organised when without the ball, a strategy that naturally comes with a healthy foul count.

Diaz averaged 1.37 fouls per 90 for Madrid during the 25/26 campaign, and also committed seven fouls across six starts during qualifying (1.25 per 90). Furthermore, he committed 10 fouls across seven starts at AFCON earlier this year (1.52 per 90), so he’s got a really consistent record when it comes to committing fouls and is as short as 1.36 to commit a foul in this clash.

There’s decent value when backing Santos to win a foul with bet365; he’s priced as short as 1.44 with other major bookmakers for the same outcome.