💎 Gem Bet: Lesley Ugochukwu - Over 0.5 Shots @ 1.66 (Bet365)

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This angle continues to be overpriced and we’ve had real success with it in recent weeks. We backed Ugochukwu for a shot in Burnley’s 3-2 defeat to West Ham just before the international break and he ended up with a tally of four, with one finding the target.

He’s been allowed by Scott Parker to support the forwards in the final third with Cullen and Florentino offering enough defensive cover to allow him to progress further forward. 

He’s had 10 shots across his eight starts in the Premier League this season (1.35 per 90), netting two goals in the process. Ugochukwu certainly has the skillset to play as a number 10, and enters this clash having had a shot in three of his last five matches in the Premier League.

Brentford have been strong at home this season, but can be vulnerable to high shot counts. This is also one of the more winnable away games for Scott Parker’s Burnley side, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them be a touch more expansive in their approach.

Brentford have conceded 79 shots across their six home games this season (13.1 per game) with at least 10 shots conceded in four of these games. The only side that left the Gtech with a modest shot count was Newcastle, who were reduced to 10 men on their trip to West London.

There is real value when backing this selection with Bet365, the exact same angle is priced as low as 1.13 with other major bookmakers.