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Cardiff v Swansea
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Date: Saturday 16th September
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Competition: Championship
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Kick off: 19:45
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Watch live: Sky Sports Football
The South Wales derby has been going through a weirdly dominant period. Swansea have only lost one derby in the last nine, with six of those matches ending in Swansea wins. Indeed, the Swans have done the double over Cardiff in the last two seasons, something that had never happened in any season in history before then.
Both teams are going through transitional periods heading into this derby though. The Bluebirds have appointed (another) new manager in former Fenerbahce boss Erol Bulut. He will be no stranger to heated derby atmospheres having worked for that club, as fierce as the South Wales derby can be, the Bosporus derby is probably another level or two on top of that! Whilst Bulut hasn’t exactly pulled up any trees there are green shoots appearing at Cardiff. Mike Duff has his hands full of soil still at Swansea, the seeds he is planting are not yet taking root, and with the spectre of winter approaching, he needs to see signs of life quickly.
Fans are already suggesting that the appointment isn’t working and that Duff is out of his depth, but surely a larger sample size than five Championship matches is required to judge that.
Under the lights at the Cardiff City Stadium there is going to be a raucous atmosphere and with much at stake for both clubs, this could set the tone for their seasons. Aaron Ramsey being back involved in a Welsh derby should be another highlight for the viewers, both on TV and in the stadium. Ramsey has looked as fit as he has done for a little while and is definitely making positive contributions for club and country in the early stages of the season. There are many question marks in the air, an intense atmosphere and much on the line.
This can form the basis of a couple of good betting angles for a Cardiff v Swansea Bet Builder. Initially, this will take the form of a 3/1 shot, but there is also a second version which is more ambitious at 16/1, but pulling on the same threads at a much bigger price.
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Bulut showing signs of improving Cardiff’s attacking output
The problem that Cardiff fans have been shouting from the rooftops about for at least the last couple of seasons is that they have no quality and very little strategy going forward. Their attacking output heavily relied on the currently injured Callum Robinson plus loanees Jaden Philogene, and, in the second half of the season, Sory Kaba. Cardiff fans have long been concerned about this situation and owning their own talent. The permanent transfer of Max Watters doesn’t look like paying off, and homegrown Mark Harris has been jettisoned to League One Oxford United.
So it has been all change from a recruitment perspective in the forward area of the pitch, but permanent Cardiff-owned players are still a bit thin on the ground. Loanees have been used in West Brom’s Karlan Grant, Nottingham Forest’s Josh Bowler, and Troyes’ Ike Ugbo. All players are experienced, with Grant and Bowler both proven in the league as good performers. Investment in a similar profile in terms of former Reading striker Yakou Meite does actually give Erol Bulut a phalanx of options that are actually suitable for purpose and clearly athletically capable.
What this has meant, in the early stages of the season, is that Cardiff currently boast the 5th highest xG created in the Championship. They are looser at the back than we have become accustomed to seeing Cardiff teams, but after years of dour, defensive football, it is probably a breath of fresh air to the fans to see this change of performance style on the pitch. If Bulut is able to provide a more stable base for his team and a mentality shift that allows them to hold onto leads, then Cardiff should see themselves firing up the table with their capable forward unit.
Cardiff team news
We are unlikely to see mass changes in the Cardiff XI, especially as strength in depth isn’t their greatest asset at the moment. Runar Runarsson and Jak Alnwick are two of the closer-matched goalkeepers in the league and have shared minutes somewhat so far. Runarsson was given his Championship debut against Ipswich, which suggests they intend him to be #1, but he did concede three times, so Alnwick still has a chance to regain that place.
We will probably see Bulut stick to a 4-2-3-1 style shape ahead of the keeper. Perry Ng has been Cardiff’s most consistent player in the last couple of seasons and will start at right back. Jamilu Collins at left back and Mark McGuinness will partner Dimitrios Goutas in the centre.
Holding midfield slots will be taken by Joe Ralls and Manolis Siopsis, with Ryan Wintle knocking on that particular door. Aaron Ramsey, if he has shaken his knock vs Latvia, will be given more freedom in a #10 role. Wide forwards will probably be Karlan Grant and Ike Ugbo, with Yakou Meite playing in the central forward role. All three men can rotate between those forward positions.
Performances need to turn into points for Duff to turn things around
Duff is a very competent football manager. He has a body of work in the EFL with Cheltenham and Barnsley that is thoroughly impressive and has shown progression. He is able to set up a team and manage matches, of that there can be no doubt. However, Swansea fans are already starting to get the ick with him.
Having two points from the opening five games is clearly not ideal. However, all teams will have runs similar to this at some stage of the season, it just so happens that Swansea are having things go against them right at the beginning of this one. Joel Piroe has been sold to a divisional rival, and with no real time or ability to replace such a key player, Duff has a difficult hand to play in terms of re-modelling the forward area with the players at his disposal.
In terms of the results, two 1-1 draws and three defeats by one goal point to the fact that Swansea have been in all of their matches so far. Indeed, the expected points table actually has Swansea above Cardiff. Whilst this points to potential problems in terms of not finishing their chances and perhaps conceding when they shouldn’t be, the overall, aggregate form that can be taken out of this is that Swansea aren’t a bad team and, as long as performances can remain similar, they should have enough to stabilise and give Duff a chance to improve from there.
Swansea team news
Duff tends to be a 3-man defence coach. There has been a general switch towards 4-man defences in the Championship this season so it will be interesting to see if this approach helps or hinders Swansea. Carl Rushworth will continue in goal with three central defenders of Harry Darling, Ben Cabango and Nathan Wood.
The wing-backs may still have to be Harrison Ashby and Josh Key whilst left wing-back options are still getting up to speed. The 3-man midfield is highly technical with captain Matt Grimes working alongside Joe Allen and Arsenal loanee Charlie Patino, who will be the one with the greatest licence to roam.
Liam Cullen and Jerry Yates will probably continue as a partnership for now with Jamal Lowe a possible replacement following his return to the club. Josh Ginnelly and Mykola Kukharevych are still getting up to speed.
Cardiff v Swansea Cheat Sheet
Here’s the Cheat Sheet for the game and isn’t it glorious? All the stats in one handy guide, ready for you to pick out any betting angles you can find when choosing a bet builder for this South Wales derby.
Our two derby day bet builders have also been carefully selected from the stats on our Cheat Sheet. We combine historical averages, perceived value of the selection and player form to determine the best value picks for any potential bet builder.
To make the most of our Cardiff v Swansea bet builder tips you can sign up to Betfair below. Stake up to £10 on your preferred option, and get £50 in free bet builders no matter what the result.
ABC’s 3/1 Cardiff v Swansea bet builder
🟨 Over 4.5 cards
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Odds: 1.25
The Championship is averaging over 4 yellow cards a match at the moment. The extended time seems to have settled down slightly from the opening weekend, but is still having an affect on the total number of cards given out because of the amount of time played and the stricter interpretations of certain rules.
This is the South Wales derby as well, so there is that aspect to consider here. The last three of these matches have seen 6, 6, and 7 cautions being dished out.
The referee has quite a low career average yellow card count, but in 4 Championship matches this season he is averaging over 5 cautions, so this is not a concern in terms of this line.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🎯 Liam Cullen to have two or more shots
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Odds: 1.30
The homegrown forward has been around the first team for a number of seasons now, but with the loss of Joel Piroe, Liam Cullen has the chance to stake a real claim for a consistent run in the first team.
He can’t really be classed as a youngster now, but he is still learning his craft at this level. Having said that he often has a high shot volume and is a definite penalty box striker.
He has averaged 1.93 shots per 90 over the last 30 matches for Swansea, but 2.59 this season.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🛑 Yakou Meite to commit two or more fouls
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Odds: 2.00
The former Reading forward seems to have cemented himself in as the first choice centre forward for Erol Bulut. His versatility in terms of being able to move out to the flank also helps his minutes.
Key to this bet is his record of fouls so far this season as well. He has started the last two Championship matches and committed 2 fouls in the first one and 3 last time out.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
ABC’s 16/1 Cardiff v Swansea bet builder
🟨 Over 2.5 Swansea cards
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Odds: 1.60
The evening kick-off and the raucous atmosphere that should be provided under the Cardiff lights could be a real contributor to bookings here.
Swansea have averaged over 2 yellows a game so far this season and they will want to impose themselves on the fixture.
The midfield is quite technical and may get caught out on the physical side, this is a potentially key area for fouls.
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🎯 Liam Cullen to have 3+ shots
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Odds: 2.75
Cullen took 4 shots in his last start against Bristol City so this line is worth chancing.
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🟨 Yakou Meite to be carded
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Odds: 3.60
With the volume of fouls that Meite could rack up in this fixture it is worth chancing that the referee will get his card out for the big forward.
There will be individual battles to be won out there and Meite will want to make his presence felt throughout the time that he is on the pitch.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing
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