We now turn our attention to the Championship fixtures live this Wednesday, and our expert has picked three of their favourite selections to combine into a 4/1 accumulator. A £10 bet on our five-fold returns £49.88.
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Wednesday’s Championship Accumulator Tips
Blackburn are in something of a slump at the moment and if there isn’t a set of positive results around the corner then their relatively good start to the season, Rovers were unbeaten in their first seven Championship matches, could begin to turn into something of a slog for the season.
John Eustace’s team have just lost their unbeaten home record having been soundly beaten by Sheffield United on Saturday. The match was very much one-sided with United winning the xG battle 2.19 to 0.61, and restricting Rovers to nine shots in total, with zero on target. Blackburn fans after the match recognised the imbalance, but, worryingly for them, with very few ideas on how this could be changed.
Stoke City are not of the level of Sheffield United, this is to be made clear, but Blackburn are priced close to even money to win the match, and this seems too short for a team that have lost four of their last six, and whose only win in that time was a narrow 1-0 home win against Swansea.
Narcis Pelach is very much still finding his feet as a head coach at Stoke, and their performance data isn’t particularly encouraging at this stage. However, they have won or drawn five of their last six, including a draw at Swansea, and, similarly to Rovers, a 0-2 loss to Sheffield United, though this was away rather than at home, and they did restrict Blades to 1.36 xG.
Rovers should be a lot easier to restrict. They are currently 20th in the Championship for xGF across the season as a whole, and they have been goalless in their last three matches. Blackburn haven’t scored two or more since a 2-0 home win over QPR in September.
Blackburn and Stoke have been in the Championship together for the last six seasons in a row, Stoke had avoided defeat at Blackburn every season until April of this year, with all five matches in which Stoke got a result ending either 1-0, 0-0 or 1-1.
Whilst we need to be wary of predicting a resurgence for Coventry City, as there have been a couple of false dawns already this season, but a run of three unbeaten, with three goals scored in each of their two recent wins does make it look as though Mark Robins has got a chance of taking the Sky Blues up the table.
Indeed, Coventry have scored three times in three separate home matches, and only once have they failed to score at home this season. Coventry are in the top six in the league for xG for (xGF), they are currently sitting at 19.2 xG across their 13 matches, 1.48 per match. This is way above Derby’s xGF output at 12.5 xG, less than 1 xG per match, which only ranks the Rams 22nd in the league.
This would suggest that Coventry are strong favourites to create more chances than their opponents, it is then a question of whether they are able to take them or not. Haji Wright is a bit of a hit-and-miss finisher, but is stealthily creeping up the top goalscorer ranks with six goals in the league including scoring one in each of the last three matches.
Derby are yet to win away from home since being promoted back into the second tier. They have drawn two matches and lost the other five, only managing to score six and concede thirteen in this time. They have very much relied on set pieces for their goals as well, scoring nine of their sixteen goals via that method. This could be an issue for Derby here as territory could be difficult to come by, Coventry are in the top half for possession and Derby are way down in 23rd.
Derby produced a fairly poor performance away at Stoke last time out, losing the xG battle 0.64 to 2.25, creating zero big chances to Stoke’s three. A big improvement will have to be made by Paul Warne’s team to avoid defeat against a better Coventry outfit.
Luton scraped out of the relegation zone thanks to a 1-1 draw at home to West Brom last Friday, and that score draw also means that Luton are on a streak of three matches where both teams have scored.
This makes it six out of seven Championship matches at Kenilworth Road this season that have seen Luton concede, and, given that the Hatters have scored in every home game as well, means that over 80% of Luton’s home matches have fulfilled this wager.
From Cardiff’s perspective, they have turned a corner and are seemingly able to convert a much higher percentage of their chances at the moment. The Bluebirds are still below their xGF of 14.1, scoring 13 goals in 13 matches at this stage, but this is a much improved ratio than under Erol Bulut earlier in the campaign when they were running well underneath their expected goals total.
Cardiff haven’t been prolific on the road, only scoring three times in their six away matches, but the recent fixtures have not really given us a fair assessment of their potential improvement as a team on the road under Omer Riza.
Riza has overseen seven Championship matches for Cardiff now, and Cardiff have scored in six of them. This includes two out of their three away matches, with the only scoreless return being away at West Brom, which is one of the league’s toughest assignments from an attacking perspective.
Indeed, Cardiff have scored nine goals in three matches around that goalless draw at the Hawthorns. They have also conceded in five out of six away matches as well, which is further encouragement for a Luton goal.
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