City dropped points to Everton on Saturday but should have far too much quality for Graham Potter’s Chelsea on Thursday as they try and capitalise on Arsenal and Newcastle sharing the points at the Emirates. It’s well known that City have spent the big bucks under Pep Guardiola however they have also reaped the rewards. Expectations have never been higher though as City chase the ever elusive Champions League with Norwegian machine Erling Haaland predicted to finally give them the extra edge required.

Leading the league in goals, possession and touches in the penalty area, City barely give the other team a chance on the ball but also maintain an exceptional attacking output. With 70.45 progressive passes per 90 at an 83% accuracy, they have talent spread across the squad with players like Cancelo and de Bruyne to advance the ball onto Chelsea, thus pinning them in defensively. They also have the highest accuracy playing the ball into the final third with 82%.

It’s been a tough start for Chelsea under Graham Potter with bad results against Forest and Brighton in addition to tough defeats to Newcastle and Arsenal where they failed to score. Against Arsenal and Newcastle (clubs close to City), Chelsea had just 52 & 40% possession, allowing the two sides more than their average and were therefore pinned in by their 4-3-3 formations. Potter’s men have just 8 shots and 3 on target in these games combined, barely troubling the opposition’s keepers.

City have far more technical quality than Newcastle and Arsenal and should be able to hold the ball for longer in higher areas and limit Chelsea even more. Pulisic and Kai Havertz have taken advantage of City in this fashion on the counter over the past few years but 3 clean sheets on the spin suggests City have solved the issue, especially when Rodri starts. City should stroll to victory here.

Following an extremely disappointing World Cup both individually and for his country, Kevin de Bruyne looks to bounce back to his creative excellence against his former side, Chelsea. On his day, one of the best midfielders in the world with the best passing range, De Bruyne failed to register a goal contribution at the tournament with just 2 shots on target and an xG of less than 0.2. He returned to his usual City ways immediately with 4 goal contributions in two games against Girona and Liverpool.

Chelsea’s style of play should play directly into KDB’s hands with Chelsea operating with a midfield 2 under Potter. The deep 2 midfielders, likely Jorginho and Kovacic are ball players set up to dictate play in Potter’s system. However, with the lack of possession Chelsea will have, they will be overrun to the extent which saw Willock score when Newcastle deployed a midfield 3 featuring Bruno Guimaraes.

Guimaraes, Longstaff and Willock all had 2 shots that day. Rodri will dictate and overpower the Chelsea midfield too, leaving De Bruyne plenty of space for at least 2 shots. A player of his calibre should either bury one or lay it on a plate for the record breaking Haaland to notch up another.

Another player fresh off an under-performing World Cup side should slot into City’s back four and see plenty of the ball. England centre-half John Stones was excellent alongside United’s Harry Maguire but one lapse of concentration saw Olivier Giroud nod home to send Stones packing.

With Ruben Dias out and Aymeric Laporte doubtful, Stones is in line for another 90 minutes and has registered 79 and 87 pass attempts in his previous two starts at Leeds and against Everton. Stones averages just 3.71 long passes per 90 too, suggesting the majority of these passes are short and possibly 1-2’s creating more opportunity for multiple passes in one sequence.

Kai Havertz isn’t known for pressing and number 10 Mount will be preoccupied with the midfield overload meaning Stones will see more of the ball. He averages 80 passes per game according to my cheat sheet and I expect him to sail over the 70 mark.

With Reece James injured yet again, Chelsea will lean on club veteran Cesar Azpilicueta at right back against the Champions. The 33 year old Spaniard deputised against Nottingham Forest for a solid yet unremarkable performance. Signing from Marseille in 2012, Azpilicueta has set the record for the most appearances for Chelsea as a non-Englishman with 495.

I like Azpilicueta’s foul market ahead of this game. 1+ Foul is priced at 1.33 which feels inevitable. However, 2+ Fouls at 2.63 is extremely appealing and is highly likely. He was actually carded 3 weeks ago against City despite only playing 26 minutes. Committing two fouls against United and one against Arsenal, Azpilicueta has struggled to stay away from the referee in big games. The likes of Grealish and Foden will be driving at the 33 year old and they draw 3.33 and 1.26 fouls per game according to the above Cheat Sheet.