In this article…
Chelsea v Aston Villa
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Kick Off: Friday 26th January at 19:45
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Competition: FA Cup
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With their hunt for a domestic double still fully underway, Chelsea prepare for their fourth cup fixture in 3 weeks, where they face a well-rested Aston Villa side who hasn’t been in action for nearly a fortnight since their goalless draw to Everton in the Premier League.
Back-to-back wins for Chelsea having established a very strong start to 2024. A huge 6-1 victory in the EFL Cup certainly felt like watching a Chelsea side from the past and it appears that the Blues are finding their best form in the cup competitions. It has been nine years since they exited this competition in the 4th round, and with seven home wins on the bounce across all competitions, they’re looking like strong candidates once again.
Aston Villa have certainly had a quieter start to 2024, having only had 2 fixtures since the turn of the New Year. Their snatch-and-grab victory in the FA Cup 3rd round was only their second win in the competition since their defeat in the 2014/2015 final by Arsenal – a grimming stat for the Villans. A first-ever Premier League draw for Unai Emery followed shortly, denying them the shot to remain top of the table. Villa claimed a 1-0 victory at Stamford Bridge earlier on in the season, could they take advantage of their hosts tough fixture schedule?
Chelsea v Aston Villa Cheat Sheet
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⚽ Goal stats: Both sides pose big dangers
Not since 2010 have we had a meeting between these two sides that resulted in a goalless draw and with the Blues having delivered their biggest victory of the season midweek, goals markets do look inviting.
Chelsea’s campaign so far has seemed fairly checkered with results but they have shown decent consistency in scoring a goal or two each game. The Blues have failed to score in only five of their 28 outings this season and have certainly had their chances every week. They remain the side with the highest number of big chances missed, as well as the biggest gap between their xG stats and actual goals conceded (+9).
Chelsea have scored at least once in 8 of their last 9 games, extending out to 11 of their last 12 games at home. Over 2.5 goals has not been as consistent as their Friday night visitors, having landed in 57% of the league their outings this year, but with some key defensive issues for Aston Villa, and the Blues scoring form, 11 goals over their last 4, we should expect a slightly higher temp here.
Aston Villa’s 0-0 draw at Goodison Park was only their third game this season across all competitions that they were unable to get on the scoresheet. They currently boast the 4th best attacking record in the Premier League and there’s no doubt they pose a constant goal-threat with the caliber of players they possess in the attacking area .
The Villan’s games have been known for goals this season, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals landing in 67% of their matches so far. They have scored in six of their last eight away games across all competitions and have seemingly gotten accustomed to playing away from home in 2024.
Predictions:
⚽ Both teams to score @ 1.60
⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.75
🎯 Shooting stats: Cole Palmer continues to shine
It would be really difficult to speak on Chelsea’s attacking promise without mentioning the main man Cole Palmer, who is in splendid form since his move to West London. Grabbing a brace in their 6-1 midweek victory, he sits on 11 goals and 7 assists across all competitions and has certainly been a joy to watch this season.
Palmer boasts a very impressive 0.92 xG+A average per 90 and is showing no signs of slowing down in his hunt for a place in the England Euro 2024 squad. Palmer is averaging 2.63 shots on goal with 1.02 hitting the target, with at least one shot on target in 9 of his 11 outings.
He is certainly proving himself as Chelsea’s main man and with such a strong goal contribution record, backing him to score or assist on Friday does look inviting.
Aston Villa have been in shooting form as of late and their total shots market prices look strong considering their form. Emery’s side are averaging 14.50 shots on goal per 90 so far this season, with their hosts closely matched having received 13 shots per match.
The Villan’s have recorded at least 12 shots in 5 of their last 6, recording 83 shots in that time – some pretty strong numbers and staying true to their averages. Of those 6, four were played away from home.
With this game expected to be filled with drama and hopefully goals too, we expect Aston Villa to continue their onslaught.
Predictions:
⚽ Cole Palmer to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.44
⚽ Cole Palmer to score or assist @ 2.40
⚽ Aston Villa to have 12+ shots @ 1.83
⚽ Aston Villa to have 13+ shots @ 2.30
🛑 Fouls stats: The midfield stars to lock horns
FA Cup fixtures always show difficulties in cards markets, so despite both sides ranked in the top 3 for the worst discipline in the Premier League this season, it looks difficult to find decent value in those markets. However, just because the referee can stay quiet, doesn’t mean the players will.
The Chelsea midfield seems abundant with fouling opportunities, with all of Conor Gallagher, Moises Caceido and Enzo Fernandez boasting strong fouling averages. Of these three, Caicedo is looking the key hatchet-man as of late, picking up at least one foul in 19 of his last 20 appearances. This jumps up to at least 2 fouls in 11 of those occasions.
Caicedo boasts an impressive 1.98 fouls per 90 this season, heavily supported by his recent fouling trends, and Friday’s midfield tussle is one of the toughest out there. Villa’s midfield trio of Boubacar Kamara, Douglas Luiz and John McGinn are notorious for drawing in a fouls or two with each of them averaging 1.56, 1.29 and 1.91 fouls drawn per 90. Caicedo will certainly have his work cut out for him on Friday.
Likely to be locking horns with Caicedo and the rest of the Blues entourage is Douglas Luiz, who has at least one foul in 10 of his last 12 outings for Aston Villa. This includes a whopping 5 fouls against Everton last time out in which he somehow evaded a booking, but it seems his fouls go slightly under the radar.
Luiz is grabbing 1.60 fouls per 90 this season, the second highest average amongst the regular starting eleven for Villa and in big games like this, his presence will be needed more than ever. We will take Luiz to commit at least one foul to boost those bet builder odds but if you’re looking to create a tasty longshot, 2 fouls is priced very nicely.
Predictions:
⚽ Moises Caicedo to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.53
⚽ Douglas Luiz to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.22
⚽ Douglas Luiz to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.10
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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