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Chelsea v Brentford
The opening Premier League action on Saturday sees Chelsea host Brentford in the West London derby, where the hosts will be keen to continue their much-improved recent form. The Blues have won three of their last five matches, with them drawing against Arsenal 2-2 last weekend despite being two up. They still, however, remain in tenth position.
The Bees appear to be suffering without their target man Ivan Toney and key defensive asset Rico Henry. They are currently sat in 14th place.
This game promises to be packed full of action, with both teams averaging high amounts of goals, corners, and shots so far this season. As a result, this article will aim to break down the key stats behind this fixture and highlight potential matchups, using the Chelsea v Brentford Cheat Sheet.
Chelsea v Brentford Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
Now, for my breakdown and preview with recommended bets…
👑 Chelsea stats: Chelsea’s new-found form
Over Chelsea’s last three games, they have won seven points, yet fans would argue this should have been nine after they let Arsenal come back from two goals down last weekend.
However, their last three games delivered more points for Chelsea than their previous nine games in the Premier League. In fact, they have even scored more goals in their last three (8) than they did in the nine games before (7).
They are priced at a generous 1.60 to get the three points on Saturday.
Prediction: Chelsea to win @ 1.62
🥅 Brentford stats: Brentford have been averaging high goals
The visitors, although currently in lower mid table, have been averaging a high number of goals scored per game. So far this season they have scored 1.56 goals per match, finding the back of the net in all bar one of their Premier League games: an away match against Newcastle.
They have also been leaking goals at the back, averaging 1.33 goals conceded so far this season. A total of 2.89 match goals per game. The main danger man in Toney’s absence has been Bryan Mbeumo, who has scored five goals in nine starts.
Prediction: Both teams to score @ 1.87
🎯 Chelsea offensive stats: Corners the name of the game for Blues
The hosts come into this game having seen this bet land in their last five outings across all competitions. Chelsea have been averaging just under ten corners per game so far this season, 4.89 corners for and 5.00 corners against. These set pieces are clearly a large part of Chelsea’s game.
As for Brentford, this market would have won in all of their last three matches. The Bees have been averaging 5.11 corners taken, conceding 4.89. This combines for a total average of 10 match corners per game.
Prediction: Over 8.5 match corners @ 1.40
🎯 Brentford offensive stats: Mbeumo leading the Bees’ charge
Bryan Mbeumo is averaging 2.33 shots per game this season, hitting the target for an average of exactly once per match. This ranks him as the second-highest player for shots out of those who regularly start for the Bees. He is also set to be taking penalties and is sometimes on free kicks. All of these stats have culminated in him being Brentford’s top scorer this season.
Another reason Mbeumo looks to be of great value at 1.44 for just two shots is due to his current form, especially last weekend when Brentford hosted Burnley. Mbeumo was the star man in this match, taking six shots and hitting the target on four of these occasions.
Prediction: Bryan Mbeumo to have 2+ shots @ 1.44
🛑 Chelsea defensive stats: Caicedo is Chelsea’s midfield villain
Moises Caicedo has been averaging 1.50 fouls per game this season, the second-highest in Chelsea’s predicted starting XI. The Ecuadorian international is definitely worth a look for fouls, having committed at least one foul in four of his last five appearances, and at least two fouls in three of his last five.
Caicedo is predicted to be defending against Mathias Jensen in a tough midfield battle. The Dane has drawn at least one foul in three of his last four Premier League appearances. Caicedo may well be defending against Brentford’s left winger too, as he regularly covers Malo Gusto at right back.
This would see him, most likely, be up against Neal Maupay, who has a high career average of fouls drawn per game (1.45). Given these tough matchups, the second level of the Chelsea v Brentford Bet Builder needs Caicedo to get booked.
Prediction: Moises Caceido to commit 1+ foul @ 1.22
Prediction: Moises Caceido to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.10
Prediction: Moises Caceido to be shown a card @ 3.0
🛑 Brentford defensive stats: Norgaard in for a tough day at the office
Christian Norgaaard is a stalwart at Brentford, and like Mathias Jensen, could be in for a tough day at the office against an extremely combative Chelsea midfield.
Christian Norgaard’s playing style and discipline will play a significant role in the outcome of this prediction, and the signs are positive.
The Dane is currently averaging 84 minutes played per game meaning he is likely to see out the majority of the game on Saturday afternoon. Attempting 2.02 tackles per 90 on top of averaging 1.54 fouls per 90 means he is likely to be the shield for the potential Brentford back three.
His likely opponent for this battle will be Argentine Enzo Fernandez, and that is likely to catch the eye in terms of defensive actions.
Combine that with the fact Norgaard could be up against Moises Caceido (1.50 fouls drawn p90), tipping him for a card seems the best option given the short value in backing him for fouls in this one.
Prediction: Christian Norgaard to be shown a card @ 2.88
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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