Only Manchester United, West Ham, and the two relegated sides, Wolves and Burnley, have kept fewer clean sheets than Leeds (7) in the Premier League this season. BTTS has landed in both of the league meetings between the sides this season, and this should be quite an even semi-final with Chelsea’s poor form levelling things when combined with Leeds’ recent upturn in momentum.

Chelsea only managed to keep four clean sheets across their 23 matches under Liam Rosenior before he got sacked, with these clean sheets coming quite cheaply too against the likes of Port Vale, Hull, Pafos, and Brentford. Chelsea conceded 2+ goals in 11 of Rosenior’s matches, so it’s fair to suggest that Chelsea’s backline will be weak here as they continue to be without key players at the back, such as Reece James and Levi Colwill.

Leeds managed to register an xG of 1.44 from just four shots when they visited Stamford Bridge a few months ago, showing how you don’t need loads of chances against this Chelsea side to hurt them. They also dominated Chelsea in the meeting between the sides at Elland Road, which finished 3-1 to Daniel Farke’s side, where they managed to register an xG of 2.79 from 17 shots despite only having 29% of the ball.

Leeds racked up four corners in their 3-1 win over Chelsea at Elland Road earlier in the season and should look to utilise corners as an avenue to goal again, having scored their opening goal in that clash from a set piece.

Chelsea are really vulnerable to set pieces and corners in particular; this is an issue that extends beyond Liam Rosenior’s time at the club and relates directly to the profile of the young side. There isn’t much physicality at all in the Chelsea squad, and they can be bullied from these situations - as they were against Brighton, who scored from a set piece after just five minutes during the week.

Chelsea allowed Brighton to register six corners in that game, and are conceding 4.32 corners per game in the Premier League this season - a total that rises to 4.59 corners conceded per game when on the road. Leeds’ corner average is also appealing ahead of this semi-final, with Farke’s side averaging 4.41 corners per game in the top flight this term.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin could have had a hat-trick when these sides met earlier in the season. He scored with one of his three shots in that 3-1 victory, but was more of a threat than this total suggests. Chelsea simply couldn’t deal with the aerial ability of Calvert-Lewin, who bullied Badiashille and Tosin on that occasion, to the point where Badiashille had to be replaced at halftime.

Calvert-Lewin has scored 11 goals across his 26 starts in the Premier League this season, which is a strong return for a striker leading the line for a relegation-threatened side. It’s also impressive that Calvert-Lewin has managed to stay relatively fit this season, which was always the main question mark surrounding him, as it’s clear that he’s got the quality to play at this level.

Calvert-Lewin has taken 67 shots across his 26 starts in the Premier League this season (2.53 per 90), seeing 30 of these attempts find the target (1.13 per 90). It’s also worth noting that nearly half of Calvert-Lewin’s shots in the Premier League this season work out to an average of 1.02 headed shots per 90.

Enzo Fernandez committed a foul when these sides clashed at Stamford Bridge a few months ago, with Chelsea committing nine fouls in total during that game.

I thought Fernandez was pretty pathetic against Brighton last time out. He wasn’t the only one who looked to stop trying, but there was no intensity in his game, which, for a player of his personality and talent, was almost certainly intentional and a bit of a damning reflection on how the Chelsea players felt about Liam Rosenior.

Fernandez has committed 30 fouls across his 31 starts in the Premier League this season (0.98 per 90), and is also averaging 7.20 defensive contributions per 90 in the top flight. He usually gets up for games like this, and will have three potential opponents here due to the way that Leeds set up in a 3-5-2.

Robert Sanchez is such a bizarre keeper. His performance against Brighton was a good example of how he can go from a reliable presence at the back to a calamity within five minutes.

It’s no exaggeration to say that Sanchez was the only reason that Chelsea didn’t lose 6-0 to Brighton during the week. He was forced into making four saves but constantly gave the ball away when Chelsea were trying to build out from the back.

This is partly the fault of Rosenior, as it was clear that the Chelsea players did not understand the instructions that the former Strasbourg boss had given them, but it’s still a bit strange that Sanchez’s worst attribute is the whole reason Chelsea signed him in the first place.

Sanchez was called into action twice when these sides met at Elland Road earlier in the season, and I think Leeds will smell blood here, given the low confidence of the Chelsea players at the moment. Sanchez has been called into action 90 times in the Premier League this season, working out to an average just shy of 3.0 saves per 90.

It’s no surprise that Chelsea’s struggles in front of goal across recent weeks have coincided with an injury to Joao Pedro. He is expected to be back again for this game, and Chelsea pretty much have to throw him straight into the starting lineup due to the issues that Liam Delap has had as the main striker - scoring just once in the league this season.

Joao Pedro has scored 22 goals in his 48 appearances across all competitions for Chelsea this season, which is the most of any Chelsea player, and also a really impressive return for a player that isn’t really a true number nine and is navigating his first season at a club where he’s in the limelight every week.

Ironically, Joao Pedro was actually one of the few players that Liam Rosenior managed to improve slightly during his short stint at the club - not that Rosenior will ever get any credit for this development. Joao Pedro’s form has really picked up since the turn of the year, scoring 12 of his goals since the start of 2026 - including a strike in the last round of the FA Cup as Chelsea thrashed Port Vale.

Ethan Ampadu has matured into a really reliable Premier League player after a few spells lower down the pyramid. He’s a former Chelsea player as well, so he’ll have an extra bit of motivation for this game when he lines up against his former club as captain of Leeds.

No Leeds player has picked up more yellow cards in the Premier League this season than Ampadu (8), showing how his role directly correlates to a healthy card count. He’s picked up two yellow cards across his four matches since the international break, and gets through quite a lot of work in the middle of the park - averaging 1.30 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League this term.

Ampadu will face up against the likes of Enzo Fernandez, who was fouled three times when these sides last met, and Moises Caicedo (1.66 fouls won per 90). Both South American midfielders can cause Ampadu issues, and he may also have to check his shoulder at times for Joao Pedro, who is also very strong when it comes to winning fouls (1.83 fouls won per 90).