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Chelsea v Newcastle
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Kick Off: Monday 11th March at 20:00
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Competition: Premier League
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Main Event
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Monday night football sees Newcastle travel to Stamford Bridge in what looks to be a particularly important game for Chelsea. The Blues are sat in 11th place on the table but have a game in hand on the teams above them. Should they win against The Magpies, they will be in a great spot to climb up a few places.
Chelsea have had another poor Premier League campaign so far, and recently suffered a heart-breaking defeat in the EFL Cup Final against Liverpool, conceding in the 118th minute. Last weekend they drew 2-2 against Brentford in another mediocre performance, meaning they have only managed five points from their last five Premier League matches.
Compared to last season, Newcastle have also delivered some fairly disappointing results. They currently sit in 8th place on the table having been poor defensively, conceding an average of 1.67 goals per game. A large chunk of these goals conceded have come on the road, with Newcastle having only won three away games in the Premier League so far.
Last time these two came up against one another was in the quarter finals of the EFL Cup. Chelsea had been trailing the match until the 92nd minute, where Mykhaylo Mudryk slotted one home after an error from Kieran Trippier. The Blues then went on to win the match on penalties, with Djordje Petrovic saving the final spot kick from Newcastle to send his team through to the semi finals.
This article breaks down the key stats and matchups behind this clash, picking a few of the best bets using data from the Chelsea v Newcastle Cheat Sheet. If you like the look of any of the selections, why not add them into your Chelsea v Newcastle bet builder?
Chelsea v Newcastle Cheat Sheet
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🏆 Match stats: Newcastle poor away from home
Newcastle’s average goals conceded when playing away from home jumps to 2.23 per match, the second most of any Premier League side. Further, they have only managed one clean sheet so far this season, coming in their shock 8-0 victory at Sheffield United.
In their last away match The Magpies let Arsenal put four goals past them. The Gunners completely dominated this match, having most of the possession (55%), more shots (18 compared to three), and more corners (nine compared to none). When asked why they have been poor on the road, Eddie Howe simply replied: “if we had one answer, we’d have solved it a long time ago”.
Chelsea, although sitting in 11th, have had some strong results at the Bridge recently. They have won four of their last five home fixtures, scoring an average of 2.00 goals per game across these. Given Newcastle’s poor away form, they look worth backing to do the same on Monday.
Predictions:
⚽ Chelsea to win @ 1.91
⚽ Over 1.5 Chelsea goals @ 1.57
🥅 Goals Stats: Jackson finding the target
Nicolas Jackson has now had three goal contributions over his last five matches, scoring last weekend against Brentford. Overall this season he ranks as second in terms of goals scored for Chelsea (8), and second for overall goal contributions too (11).
The Chelsea forward has plenty of attempts on goal, averaging 2.23 shots and 1.16 shots on target per match. This sees him rank in sixth place for total expected goals in the Premier League, just behind Mohamed Salah and Darwin Nunez.
Another player on fire for Chelsea up top this season is Cole Palmer, who has 17 goal contributions since joining The Blues and has seen averages of 2.48 shots and 1.10 shots on target in the Premier League. He does not seem to be slowing down either, with four goal contributions over his last five starts.
Predictions:
⚽ Nicolas Jackson to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.40
⚽ Nicolas Jackson to score anytime @ 2.50
⚽ Cole Palmer to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.30
⚽ Cole Palmer to score anytime @ 2.63
🚩 Corner Stats: Chelsea consistent with their corners
The Blues have seen at least five corners in each of their last five home games, averaging 7.00 corners across these. Their season average corners taken at Stamford Bridge is currently 5.75, with aerial threat being an important part of Chelsea’s tactics this season having scored seven goals from headers (16% of their total goals).
Newcastle have been conceding plenty of corners away from home, averaging 5.23 per match. In their last Premier League away game, The Magpies conceded nine corners against Arsenal, taking none in the process. In fact, Newcastle have only seen an average of 3.92 corners taken when playing away from home, one of the lowest in the league.
Further, in their last match against Chelsea The Magpies conceded 10 corners, only taking three of their own. This narrative opens up some potential value in the corners match bet market, meaning that Chelsea simply need to repeat history and take more corners than Newcastle for the selection to land.
Predictions:
⚽ Chelsea corner match bet @ 1.53
⚽ Over 4.5 Chelsea corners @ 1.36
⚽ Over 5.5 Chelsea corners @ 1.73
🛑 Foul & Cards stats: Chelsea has the league’s worst disciplinary record
The Blues have received the most yellow cards in the Premier League so far (79), and have committed the second highest average fouls per game (12.5). Chelsea have only gone one Premier League game without seeing a yellow card, and have now received at least two bookings in four of their last five games.
Last time out against Newcastle, in the EFL Cup, Chelsea received four yellows: Raheem Sterling, Conor Gallagher, Moises Caicedo, and Mudryk. The last time they played them in the Premier League, The Blues picked up five bookings, one of which being a red card. Sterling also found his name in the book in this one too.
Sterling has picked up five bookings (all competitions) so far this season, averaging 1.20 fouls committed per game. Over his last five Premier League starts, he has committed at least one foul per game too. Having been booked in both of his last games against Newcastle, Sterling looks primed to commit more challenges on Monday.
Predictions:
⚽ Raheem Sterling to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.25
⚽ Raheem Sterling to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.30
⚽ Raheem Sterling to be shown a card @ 5.0
⚽ Over 1.5 Chelsea cards @ 1.22
⚽ Over 2.5 Chelsea cards @ 1.83
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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