124/1 Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Lucky 15 Tips & Predictions

It’s been a big week for Southampton manager Tonda Eckert, but with Spygate now finally put behind him, full focus can now go towards pushing for promotion again this season, and what’s left is a Southampton attack that can’t stop scoring.

Their 15 goals in 4 home games is the most by any Championship side since Reading tallied 16 in the 2008/09 season, which explains why clean sheets are so hard to come by at St Mary’s. But defensively, they’ve been leaking goals too, with their only clean sheet this season coming in Round 1 of the EFL Cup away to League 2 side Colchester.

Portsmouth have done their bit, too, only failing to score twice all season, and averaging 1.2 goals per 90 in the league. Last seasons 0-0 is an obvious concern, but only 3 of the last 10 meetings between these sides,  a run stretching back to 2004, have ended with a team keeping the other out.

If Portsmouth are to hurt Southampton, Segecic is likely to be at the heart of it. No player has played more minutes for the club than the 22 year old this season, and he’s created 5 big chances already. For context, the next closest teammate has generated 2, so he’s already proving to conduct the attacks.

So far in the Championship, he’s averaged 3.4 shots a game, with 0.6 per 90 landing on target, whilst his 1.7 total xG is second best in the squad. That 0.6 is modest on its own, but Portsmouth's shot map only further points towards his success - 62% of all their shots have come through the central channel, whilst 49% have come within the 18 yard box, with the intersection of these zones landing directly in the positions Segecic tends to pick up.

When Southampton played Bristol in their most recent home fixture, Dom Ballard manged two shots on target from this same position in his 58 minutes on the pitch, so if you’re looking for Southamptons defensive frailty, then it’s here.

With Kamara expected to continue starting out on the the right for Pompey, Ryan Manning will be in for a busy afternoon.

Not only does the Irish international play a huge part in providing width in the attack, but he's equally important at providing defensive cover out wide. Kamara has won 7 fouls in his last 5 games, and is drawing 1.65 per 90 in the Championship this season, so he’s a player opponents tend to bring down.

Manning at left back will be the man trying to stop him, but just as much as Kamara wins them, he commits them. In each of his last 5 starts he has brought a man down, picking up 2 yellow cards in the process, whilst continuing that trend with 4 fouls in his 4 appearances during the international break.

That side of the pitch will certainly see action, with most of Portsmouth’s attacks coming down that wing, so this I’ll be surprised if Manning isn’t penalised at some point in the match.

Set pieces are one of the Saints best routes to goal, and summer signing Keven Schlotterbeck has taken to them instantly.

Thanks to the high-quality deliveries from Ward-Prowse, Manning and Scienza, the 6’2” German recorded a headed shot on target in his debut against Milwall, before scoring on his second outing against Birmingham. He’s also had 5 shots in his last 5, each of which resulting from a set-piece, with all but one of them headers.

In fact, only Bristol City and West Ham have scored more set-piece goals than Southampton in the Championship this season, whilst Portsmouth are averaging 11.7 fouls per 90, so dead-ball chances should be plentiful. A defender is always a slightly cheeky shots pick, but 5 in 5 is a pattern, not luck.

Cyle Larin has taken the Championship by storm, leading the charge for the league’s top goalscorer, but the Canadian is quiety (or not so quietly) getting stuck in, too. In his 8 league appearances this season, he's committing 2.11 fouls per 90, with his last 5 matches reading 0, 2, 3, 2, 3. With the nature of the derby factored in, I’d be surprised if that didn’t add even more fuel to the fire.

Those numbers aren’t a fluke, either. Prior to his January move to the South Coast, he committed 4 fouls in his lacklustre 152 minutes for Eredevisie giants Feyenoord. Meanwhile, Pompey’s Ebou Adams wins 2.83 fouls per 90 in all competitions this season, with teammate and centre-back Poole winning 1.36, so neither will be afraid to go down if Larin gets too close.

2+ is certainly a bigger ask than 1+, but given his recent run and the feisty clash for territorial bragging rights, it’s well within his reach.