Below we have a breakdown of common trends that have occurred over the past few Cheltenham Festivals. We’ve also weaved these into our Cheltenham Festival Day 4 Tips and Cheltenham Gold Cup Tips.

1️⃣ Triumph Hurdle (13:20, Friday 14th March)

The Triumph Hurdle is exclusively for four-year-old horses, making age a uniform factor. Price trends reveal that five of the last 12 winners were favourites, and seven out of 12 winners were among the top three in the betting. 

Recent performance is significant, with seven of the last 12 winners having won their previous race, and 11 out of 12 at least placing. Notably, all 12 winners had their last run within the past 48 days. The Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown has been a key prep race, producing three winners and four placers among the last 12 Triumph Hurdle victors.

📋 Summary:

EAST INDIA DOCK and LULAMBA are prominent contenders for the Triumph Hurdle. Both horses are four-year-olds, aligning with the race’s age restriction for juveniles. They come into the race with strong recent form, each having won their previous starts, fitting the trend that 10 of the last 12 winners had won their last race before Cheltenham. 

Additionally, both horses have been active within the past 48 days, aligning with the pattern that successful contenders often have a recent run before the festival. However, it’s noteworthy that only two of the last 12 winners were favourites, suggesting that being a favourite doesn’t guarantee success in this race

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2️⃣ County Hurdle (14:00, Friday 14th March)

Age-wise, nine of the last twelve winners were either five or six years old.

In terms of betting, only two favorites have won in the past twelve years, with four winners among the top three in the betting; notably, nine winners were priced at 10/1 or higher. 

Weight considerations show that nine of the last twelve winners carried 11st 1lb or less. Regarding recent form, three of the last twelve winners secured victory in their previous race, and nine had raced within the last 80 days. Experience at Cheltenham appears beneficial, as seven of the last twelve winners had at least one prior run at the course.

📋 Summary:

KARGESE and LARK IN THE MORNIN are notable contenders for the County Handicap Hurdle. Both are five-year-olds, aligning with the trend that 9 of the last 12 winners were aged five or six. However, only 2 of the last 12 winners were favourites, suggesting that being a market leader doesn’t guarantee success in this race. Additionally, 9 of the last 12 winners carried 11st 1lb or less, which is relevant considering Kargese is assigned 11st 3lbs and Lark In The Mornin has 10st 8lbs.

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3️⃣ Mares’ Chase (14:40, Friday 14th March)

Notably, all four winners were prominent in the betting market, with none starting at odds greater than 3/1. Additionally, the winners have been aged seven or eight, suggesting a potential age preference. While these early trends offer some insight, it’s essential to approach them with caution due to the race’s recent inception. 

📋 Summary:

DINOBLUE and ALLEGORIE DE VASSY are leading contenders for the Liberthine Mares’ Chase. Both mares have demonstrated strong form, with Dinoblue recently defeating Allegorie De Vassy in the BBA Ireland Limited Opera Hat Mares Chase at Naas. However, it’s important to note that this race has only been run four times, making it challenging to establish definitive trends

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4️⃣ Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (15:20, Friday 14th March)

​The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle has exhibited notable trends over recent years. Age-wise, 10 of the last 12 winners were six or seven years old. In terms of betting, only one favorite has won in the past 12 years, with just two winners among the top three in the betting; notably, 10 winners started at odds of 11/1 or higher.

Recent form shows that five of the last 12 winners triumphed in their previous race, and nine had raced within the last 54 days. Experience at Cheltenham appears less critical, as only three of the last 12 winners had prior runs or victories at the course.

📋 Summary:

It’s noteworthy that only 1 of the last 12 winners was the favourite, and 10 of the last 12 winners started at odds of 11/1 or bigger.

THE BIG WESTERNER and JASMIN DE VAUX are notable contenders for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle. Both horses are six years old, aligning with the trend that 10 of the last 12 winners were aged six or seven. Additionally, both have recent racing experience, with their last runs within the past 54 days, fitting the pattern that 9 of the last 12 winners had their previous outing within this timeframe.

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5️⃣ Cheltenham Gold Cup (16:00, Friday 14th March)

The Cheltenham Gold Cup has exhibited notable trends over recent years. Age-wise, all 12 of the last 12 winners were aged between seven and nine.

In terms of betting, six of the last 12 winners were favourites or joint favourites, with eight of the 12 winners being among the top three in the betting.

Recent form is significant, as nine of the last 12 winners won their previous race before the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and 11 of the 12 winners had their last run within the last 80 days.

Experience at Cheltenham is also crucial, with all 12 winners having had at least one previous run at the course, and eight of the 12 winners had at least one previous win at Cheltenham.

📋 Summary:

GALOPHIN DES CHAMPS, the defending champion, comes into the race off the back of a win, aligning with the trend that 9 of the last 12 winners won their previous race.

BANBRIDGE has strong Cheltenham form, fitting the pattern that all of the last 12 winners had at least one previous run at the course.

However, only six of the last 12 winners were outright favourites, suggesting that while Galopin Des Champs is the market leader, past trends indicate the race can still produce surprises.

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6️⃣ Festival Hunters’ Chase (16:40, Friday 14th March)

​Age-wise, all of the last 12 winners were aged 8 or older. In terms of betting, 4 of the last 12 winners were favourites or joint favourites, with 5 of the 12 winners being among the top three in the betting.

Recent form is significant, as 6 of the last 12 winners won their previous race before the Cheltenham Hunters’ Chase, and 10 of the 12 winners had their last run within the last 43 days.

Experience at Cheltenham is also notable, with 9 of the 12 winners having had at least one previous run at the course, and 3 of the 12 winners had at least one previous win at Cheltenham. Additionally, 9 of the last 12 winners were rated 134 or higher, and 11 of the 12 winners had at least one previous chase win.

📋 Summary:

ANGLES DAWN and ITS ON THE LINE are prominent contenders for the Hunters’ Chase. Both horses fit the age profile, as 9 of the last 10 winners were aged ten or eleven.

Additionally, both have secured victories over distances of at least three miles, aligning with the trend that 8 of the last 10 winners had such wins. Notably,

Its On The Line has finished second in the past two renewals of this race, demonstrating consistent performance. However, it’s worth mentioning that Angels Dawn’s recent form has primarily come from point-to-point races rather than hunters’ chases

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7️⃣ National Hunt Chase (17:20, Tuesday 11th March)

Age-wise, 10 of the last 12 winners were aged five or six. In terms of betting, none of the last 12 winners were favourites, with only four being among the top three in the betting and seven winners started at odds of 11/1 or bigger.

Weight considerations show that nine of the last 12 winners carried between 11st 3lbs and 11st 9lbs. Recent form is significant, as six of the last 12 winners won their previous race before the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle, and 10 winners had their last run within the previous 55 days. Additionally, all of the last 12 winners were officially rated 137 or higher heading into the contest

📋 Summary:

KOPECK DE MEE and WODHOOH are notable contenders for the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle. Both horses are five-year-olds, aligning with the trend that 14 of the last 16 winners were aged five or six.

Additionally, both carry weights exceeding 11st 1lb, fitting the pattern that all of the last 16 winners carried at least this weight. However, it’s noteworthy that no favourite has won this race in the last ten runnings, suggesting that being a market leader doesn’t guarantee success in this event.

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