For those who prefer the devil in the details and the satisfying returns of an accumulator on the main event, there is scope to build an interesting trio of outcomes in the Eubank Jr. v Benn fight.

Eubank is unquestionably the naturally bigger man, as evidenced by the weight classes the two have boxed in and the rehydration clause inserted into the contract to try and constrain that advantage. 

The truth for Benn backers is that the smaller man has not been a puncher aside from the period overshadowed by failed drug tests. Eubank, with the exception of a dreadful display versus Liam Smith, has been rugged and durable against good punchers like George Groves and Artur Abraham. As a result, I don’t envisage a multiple knockdown slug fest.

Expect Eubank to be strategic and circumspect as he assesses the threat and power Benn possesses. Then impose his reach, timing, and size as the middle rounds pass. The fight will go deeper than frothing promoters will propose, and such is Benn’s youth, fitness, and determination that he can survive a knockdown if it comes. 

It is a pedestrian trio in terms of excitement or return, but I like Eubank to win, with over 1.5 knockdowns and the fight to go beyond 8.5 rounds.

The safe pick is Eubank. He is the taller man, has boxed at Middleweight (160lbs) and Super-Middleweight (168lbs), and has fought superior opposition over a long period of time. His three defeats were against high-quality opponents in Billy Joe Saunders, George Groves, and Liam Smith. He was competitive against Saunders and Groves and defeated Smith in a rematch. So much time has lapsed since the Saunders and Groves fights that their value, like victories over James DeGale in 2019 and Artur Abraham in 2017, are greatly diminished, but he holds the advantage of pedigree and big fight experience, and at this weight.

A stoppage loss to Smith was a surprise – Smith a career Light-Middle – and spoke to issues of weight making, age, and the inactivity that had preceded it. Those issues have not gone away. This will be Eubank‘s 6th fight in 4 years. And he will be 36 in September. His most recent win over modest opposition in October did little to dispel those fears.

Eubank to win by decision in a fight where Benn starts fast and fades as Eubank’s size tires him out has merit. Eubank isn’t the busy fighter of his late twenties, and his bygone advantages of hand speed will not be as relevant in a fight with a career Welterweight. Slow starts have cost him on the cards before, and his more measured style as a veteran fighter may see a longer fight than the hype would propose. 

The counterargument of a swarming Benn win, where his vigour, aggression, and the decline in Eubank lead to a stoppage victory for the younger man, is hard to substantiate. Benn’s most impressive performances were in the immediate period before his failed tests. It is hard not to be cynical about the knockout power Benn demonstrated in those fights with Chris Algieri and Samuel Vargas. It is power he has failed to demonstrate since his return or in the dozen or so fights beforehand. And now he is at Middleweight. And he isn’t his father.

Eubank Jr to win at 1.57 looks like a solid choice on Betfair. Odds that may drift as excitement and publicity suggest a slugfest. Invest lightly, the decline in Eubank is evident, and his patience in making this lucrative fight over the pursuit of a title shot is also revealing for the astute judge.

A former Eubank opponent, 36-year-old Liam Smith, returns from the longest break in his 17-year career to face unbeaten Aaron McKenna in an intriguing 10-round non-title fight. Smith has been a fantastic servant to boxing and will preserve richer paydays if he can win this crossroads bout with the 25-year-old Los Angeles-based Irishman. 

Smith is seasoned and a polished professional, but the question of how much desire and energy he has left will be tested by the emerging and busy McKenna. A professional since he was a teenager, this will be, by far, McKenna’s toughest assignment. I find it hard to pick against any of the Smith brothers – Liam, chief among them as perhaps the most compact and assured of them all – but his display in rematching with Eubank in September 2023, following a troubled camp, suggested the end was close. 20 months out will not have helped. 

McKenna to win, with perhaps a crisis along the way, as Smith will punish any wildness in the younger man’s output and the high chin he still presents, looks a wise bet. Smith has the guile to survive a crisis – stubbornness got him a long way in the Eubank rematch, but McKenna can be backed at 6/4 to win on points with Betfair. 10 rounds moderating confidence in a stoppage. If a market emerges rewarding more precision, and both men to be knocked down and McKenna to win are available, consider adding this in parallel.

The penultimate selection for an accumulator, the highly anticipated rematch between Light-Heavyweights Anthony Yarde and Lyndon Arthur, offers an enticing contest to find value. Arthur boasts an upset win over Yarde despite being compromised for much of the fight with an injury that left him to box one-handed. Arthur’s guile disguised the impediment and secured him a points victory. Both have faced higher-level competition subsequently without finding a win, and there is a sense that only the victor will have the opportunity to scale that mountain again. 

Yarde is a surprisingly strong favourite, the taller Arthur therefore offers good value in the match. It is a bold strategy to put the underdog Arthur into a four-way play bet at 9/2 for the outright win, but against a tactically modest opponent he has beaten before, it has merit. Arthur will be unphased by Yarde’s proposed improvement. Both men are heading for their mid-thirties. They are what they are at this point, and Arthur has done it before.

Former Cruiserweight title holder, Chris Billam-Smith, is the most reliable on the bill as he continues to build momentum in a division rich with possibilities. A dedicated professional with a great chin, strong technique, and excellent stamina and durability, Billam-Smith is available at 5/6 for the outright win with Betfair. 

Wider markets could emerge nearer fight night, so look out for late stoppage odds as the week unfolds. The Bournemouth man will have the advantage of height and reach. His American opponent can punch and boasts victories on the road, but is a level below the Brit. As with all Billam-Smith fights, it will be arduous work for both men, so caution on stake is advocated.