Club Brugge seem unlikely to score in this 1 for a number of reasons. For 1 they are heavy underdogs with City being at home and in desperate need of a win. They have also adopted a very defensive-minded approach in the Champions League conceding a low volume of chances but at the expense of decreased attacking output. They have averaged just 0.86 goals for per game.

To add to this they only need a draw to progress and so will likely play for this result rather than risking committing too many men forward and potentially being left vulnerable at the back.

Erling Haaland has again been sensational this season and has been the focal point of City’s attack. He is responsible for a huge amount of their attacking output, averaging 2.57 shots on target per game in the Champions League with 4.71 shots per game overall, and 2.26 shots on target per match in the Premier League.

Haaland has already scored 6 goals in the Champions League this season and a staggering 18 in the Premier League, accounting for roughly 40% of Manchester City’s goals. With them likely to have a large number of chances on Wednesday this looks like a sensible selection.

Raphael Onyedika stands out as the most foul-prone player in this matchup, making this bet a strong consideration. He has averaged 1.5 fouls per game in the Champions League and 1.2 fouls per game in the Belgian league, highlighting his tendency to commit fouls in high-stakes matches.

Manchester City’s squad is packed with tricky players who excel at drawing fouls, like Phil Foden and Savinho, both of whom could be key targets for Onyedika in midfield duels. Additionally, with Brugge desperate to secure a result, tactical fouls are likely to play a crucial role in breaking up City’s rhythm and preventing dangerous chances from developing.

As a central midfielder in a game where his team will need to defend resolutely and disrupt City’s flow, Onyedika reaching 2 fouls looks like a great selection.

Brugge goalkeeper Simon Mignolet is likely to face a busy night between the sticks. While Brugge have displayed an excellent defensive record in the Champions League, Manchester City are expected to apply relentless pressure in a must-win game.

City boast 1 of the most formidable attacks in world football, and even in a season marked by inconsistency, they’ve averaged 7.57 shots on target per game in the Champions League and 6.13 in the Premier League. With City throwing everything at this game, Mignolet making at least 4 saves seems a highly realistic outcome.

Manchester City look well positioned to surpass 6.5 corners in this match, given their average of 8.43 corners per game in the Champions League. They will likely dominate this game with long periods of sustained pressure which naturally results in a high number of corners.

Club Brugge have conceded a modest 3.29 corners per game in Europe but this seems highly likely to increase given the context of the game.

Club Brugge have averaged 4 shots on target per game in Europe and also have by far the best attacking output in the Belgian league averaging 2.3 goals per game.

Given Manchester City’s defensive vulnerabilities – conceding an average of 4.3 shots on target per game in the Champions League and 5.5 shots per game in their last 4 Premier League matches – backing Brugge to register 3 or more shots on target is a solid bet. Despite City’s attacking dominance, their defence has allowed ample opportunities, making this a smart selection.

Over 4.5 cards in the match is justified by the context of this game as well as the physical nature of both teams. Brugge average 2.14 cards per game in this competition, while their opponents average 3.00 cards per match, highlighting the high card frequency in their games.

City average only 1.29 a game but this could easily rise with the emotions and stakes of this game. 2.38 is a nice price to have onside if things escalate.

Phil Foden to have 2 shots on target at evens presents good value. He’s averaged 3.17 shots per game in the Champions League, with 1.33 on target, and this is likely to increase given the match context.

As heavy favorites, Manchester City are expected to dominate possession, giving Foden plenty of opportunities to test the Brugge goalkeeper. With Brugge’s European defensive setup likely to invite pressure, Foden’s movement and ability to find space will put him in positions to rack up shots on target.