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Coventry v Man United
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Kick Off: Sunday 21st April at 15:30
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Competition: FA Cup
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Watch Live: ITV1
The second FA Cup semi-final will kick-off this Sunday as Coventry take on Man United, but that’s not all we’re covering here on Andy’s Bet Club. We have our FA Cup bet builder predictions live on-site along with an array of other football betting tips, including our brand-new both teams to score tips.
If you’re planning a bet builder this weekend, make sure to check out our helpful guide on player foul betting before you do to learn how our experts identify the best picks.
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Usually, when a Championship team reaches the semi-finals we would be saying that it is a huge day for them, but the way that Manchester United’s season has gone so far, this is also massive for Erik ten Hag and his future at Old Trafford.
Coventry come into this semi-final having faded away from the play-off picture in the Championship. The chances of them remaining in the second tier for another season is now very high, so all of their efforts will now be on this match and the chance to reach a first FA Cup Final since their famous 1987 success against Tottenham Hotspur.
Manchester United’s chances of European football next season may also hang on this competition. The Red Devils currently sit seventh in the league, which, as it stands, may not be good enough for Europa League football, but may be good enough for the Conference League.
However, more importantly, it is silverware that the Manchester United fans, and new ownership will be craving. Man Utd haven’t won the FA Cup since 2016, and that is their only FA Cup win in the last 20 years. The Old Trafford side are still the second-highest all-time winners of the FA Cup with 12 cups, only two behind Arsenal, but it has been something of a drought for such a big club.
Let’s get into the key opportunities to use in a bet builder for Coventry v Man United this Sunday.
Coventry v Man United Cheat Sheet
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⚽️ Goals stats: Coventry boast strong attacking data
It is very well known in the general media, social media, and anyone who vaguely follows Manchester United and the Premier League that Erik ten Hag’s team concede a lot of shots on their goal.
Records have been broken in many ways recently about the number of times certain teams have shot at Andre Onana in the goal, and the number of touches that teams have had in the box against Man Utd as well.
The good news for Coventry is that they absolutely have the creative wherewithal and the cutting edge at the top of the pitch to take advantage of that if United are similarly profligate against them.
Indeed, Man Utd have the second worst expected goals against (xGA) in the Premier League. To put this into context, this is worse than Burnley and alongside rock-bottom Sheffield United.
Meanwhile, Coventry are fifth best for expected goals for (xGF) in the Championship. This is only behind the elite four in the Championship, and puts into data the sentiments expressed above. Coventry are a real threat to Man Utd here.
The issue for both teams is that, obviously, the opposite is also true. Coventry have moments of real sloppiness at the back, whilst Man Utd are capable of sublime moments of quality and retain that veneer of a big time set of players, as demonstrated in the Sixth Round against Liverpool.
Either way, goals look to be on the agenda here, and there is enough evidence in the data to not feel confident in Manchester United at an odds-on price.
Predictions:
⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.45
⚽ Both teams to score @ 1.57
🎯 Shooting stats: Fernandes shot volume looks strong
There could easily be a lot of shots in this match once the pattern is established after a likely tentative opening for both sides.
Bruno Fernandes is going to feel the responsibility of getting Man Utd into another major cup final. He has a high shot volume in general, especially being on penalties and some free-kicks as well, but he is the type of player who can try and do perhaps a little too much in the aim of dragging his team over the line.
His last few league match shot totals have read 3,2,5,3,5,0 (Man City), 5,5. Taking the Manchester City match out of the equation, Bruno has hit at least three shots in six of this last seven matches. He is also pretty certain to play the full match as well, unless Man Utd are very comfortable, in which case, Bruno is fairly likely to have contributed to that anyway.
Predictions:
⚽ Bruno Fernandes to have 3+ shots @ 1.44
⚽ Bruno Fernandes to have 4+ shots @ 2.30
🩹 To be fouled stats: Mainoo underpriced in the to be fouled market
There has been lots of praise over Kobbie Mainoo in the media since his breakthrough into the Man Utd team this season. It would be fair to say that he is already one of Man Utd’s key players and Erik ten Hag relies on him to do a lot of key wor in the midfield.
One of Mainoo’s underrated attributes is his ability to move with the ball. He doesn’t over-do it but he is capable of inviting pressure whilst on the ball and taking collisions, being fouled on a regular basis in recent matches.
Mainoo has been fouled at least once in each of his last seven matches, twice in three of those seven, so his price in this market is surprisingly big.
From a Coventry perspective, it has been pleasing to see the resurgence of Kasey Palmer this season. The former Chelsea youth star has played for almost half of the Championship when he arrived at Coventry, but he showed flashes of good form before solidifying his place this season.
His size and skill has made him a key weapon for Coventry, and a key man to stop for opponents. He is Coventry’s most regularly fouled player, and Man Utd are likely to use physical tactics to stop him too.
Predictions:
⚽ Kobbie Mainoo to be fouled 1+ times @ 1.44
⚽ Kobbie Mainoo to be fouled 2+ times @ 3.10
⚽ Kasey Palmer to be fouled 2+ times @ 1.40
🛑 Fouls stats: Wright to be pinged on a few occasions for fouls
We have discussed Haji Wright’s threat already, but he may also be a threat to the health of the Man Utd defenders.
The big American is a prolific fouler, going along at around two fouls per 90, and he has managed to commit seven fouls across his last two matches as well.
The combination of his aerial threat and his clumsy pressing is what makes him such a regular victim of the referee’s whistle.
If Willy Kambwala makes another start for Man Utd he is a generous price for at least one foul. He has managed three in his last two starts and being in the vicinity of physical strikers such as Ellis Simms and Wright, there are likely to be battles that get pinged by the referee in which Kambwala will come out the wrong side of at least once.
Predictions:
⚽ Haji Wright to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.61
⚽ Willy Kambwala to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.67
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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