In this article…
Introduction
Croatia, pound for pound, have punched above their weight more than any nation on earth. With a population less than half the size of London alone and considering that their first competitive game was in 1994, their record of two third-place finishes and a runners-up medal in 2018 are extraordinary.
Their record in the the Euros is more modest with two quarter-final appearances as their peak. They were written off in the last World Cup as an ageing side who would struggle but only lost out to eventual champions, Argentina, in the semi-finals.
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🔮 Euro 2024 predictions
Tournament Prediction: Round of 16
Croatia’s defensive solidity will always give them a chance in knockout football but their struggles to overcome modest opponents in qualifying will be a concern. A combined 2-0 aggregate score against Armenia, home and away, and an away defeat to Wales, show a vulnerability in the side. Their entire World Cup campaign was punctuated with penalty shoot-out wins and close contests where one could argue they were outplayed for large spells.
In some form or another, I would want to oppose Croatia. However, bet365’s offer of 3.4 for them not to qualify seems a little short, given that 4 of the 6 3rd place teams will end up qualifying for the knockout phase.
Squeezing out a little more value and if you think qualification is unlikely, then Sky Bet are offering odds of 16/1 on them to secure 9 points, but odds on Croatia to score 0 points in the group are a very tempting 14/1. This would require a shock Albania win, but if Croatia only manage a draw against them, then odds of 8/1 on Croatia to score 1 point in the group would be my other small play.
For a big odds punt on the top goalscorer market, you could do worse than backing Josko Gvardiol – back Gvardiol to be the top Croatian Goalscorer at 40/1 with Betvictor. He has 2 goals in 29 games for the national team, and given his recent goalscoring exploits for Man City, may inspire Zlatko Dalic to utilise his attacking threat. Given Croatia’s general lack of goalscoring end product, I think he has a better chance than the odds suggest.
Croatia Euro 2024 Qualifying Data
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📖 How they qualified
Croatia finished 2nd in what could be argued was a relatively weak group, losing out on top spot to Turkey and finishing ahead of Wales.
The Croats were rarely tested defensively, with just 4 goals conceded, but just 13 goals in 8 games in a group with the likes of Armenia and Latvia showed a lack of clinical edge in front of goal.
👕 Players to watch
Josko Gvardiol ended his first season in Manchester on a high as he chipped in with several goals and top performances. His hugely impressive displays in the last World Cup convinced the Premier League side to sign him and his presence in defence will be crucial for Croatian hopes of advancing. His increasing confidence on the other end of the pitch will be an added bonus.
Although Luka Modric, one of the finest midfielders of his generation, is still in the side and will play a part, at 39 years of age, it will be a challenge for him to sustain his high levels throughout the short turnarounds expected in tournament football. What will be of more interest is their other heartbeat in midfield, Marcelo Brozovic.
Having moved to Saudi Arabia this season, question marks will be raised at whether he is playing at a high enough level and how this might impact him coming into the games against Spain and Italy. The counterargument is that he’ll be relatively fresh going into the group phase and much like riding a bike, he’ll raise his game for the occasion.
* All odds displayed correctly at the time of publishing *
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