Crystal Palace have been dreadful in the league since the return of football. Whilst they have picked up plenty of creditable draws against good sides – Liverpool, Brentford, Brighton, Newcastle and Manchester United – they have also been fortunate according to the underlying data. They have one win on expected goals in 2023 – a 1.05-1.06 win at Brentford – but in all this year they have accumulated just 7.41 expected goals whilst conceding 15.66. They have actually conceded just 11 goals in that time (with four against Spurs) and this suggests that they have been fortunate to be getting results in some of those games and poor finishing from the other side has covered up some of the patches. If those chances fall to Erling Haaland, he will not miss them. Crystal Palace scored twice in the 4-2 defeat at the Etihad but had just 0.62 expected goals and were fortunate to score more than once.

Manchester City cannot afford to slip up now if they hope to win the Premier League again this season. Whilst focus is on the Champions League, Guardiola will want to keep his team competitive in as many competitions as possible and his squad depth allows him to do this. They have accumulated 13.53 expected goals per game across their last five and with the attacking options they have, it is no surprise to have seen them score 13 goals in that time. They have struggled against Crystal Palace in recent years, having dropped points in two of their last three games, failing to score twice, but they have created plenty of chances against the South London side. Across their last four games, they have had 71 shots against them at an average of 17.75 per game and they now have a striker that can finish those chances. This was epitomised by Erling Haaland’s second half hattrick at the Etihad in August against Saturday’s opponents.

Rodri averages 1.63 shots per game in the league this season and has recently increased his numbers even further. In his last ten games, he has had 19 shots, with at least one in every match but one and scoring against Aston Villa. He has had at least two in six of those games and at least three in three. Across those ten games, he has averaged 2.01 shots per 90 minutes. Whilst he did not have a shot against Palace earlier this season, he had two in both games last season and one in his visit to Selhurst Park in 2020/21.

Naouriou Ahamada joined Crystal Palace from Stuttgart in January for a fee of 12 million euros. He is yet to make his full debut for the club and the absence of Cheick Doucoure might provide him with that first opportunity if Patrick Vieira does not turn to James McArthur. The French midfielder has committed one foul in his 43 minutes of football for his new club but made 17 fouls in 18 starts in the Bundesliga.

He made at least one in 13 of those starts including in each of his last five and, if given the opportunity to start here, he will want to impress in front of his new supporters and will get stuck in. He will have a tough time against Manchester City and may get frustrated as he chases shadows as the Frenchman adapts to Premier League life.

Crystal Palace games average 4.60 cards this season and 4.38 at home. They have received an average of 2.52 cards per game, being shown at least two in 68% of matches (including five of their last six, and at least three in 44%. In their last ten games at Selhurst Park, they have been given three or more bookings in six games. However, they have drawn three cards in just 28% of their matches.

Manchester City have received 1.19 cards per game in the league this season, rising slightly to 1.31 away from the Etihad Stadium. They draw 2.23 bookings and on the road have seen their opponents cautioned two or more times in 77% of matches and three or more times in 46%. However, they have seen no bookings in 38% of games, and two or more in just 38%. In Man City’s last five visits to Selhurst Park, this selection has landed three times (including in the last two occasions) with the other two times ending level (in 2019/20 and 2018/19). The game at the Etihad at the start of the season saw Crystal Palace be booked twice whilst Phil Foden was the only Man City player cautioned.

The referee for this one is Robert Jones. Across his 70 matches at professional level, he has given exactly three cards per game, and tends to give the home team more cards (1.56) than the away side (1.47). He took charge of six games in 2023, giving 14 cards to the home side and 12 to visitors in those matches. In two of his last three (Southampton vs Leicester and Nottingham Forest vs Leeds), he has cautioned the hosts four times and the away team just twice.