The first meeting of the two South Coast teams for over a decade looks to be a potential cracker. The Pilgrims’ home record in their incredible League One season was quite sensational and is clearly something that the local Devonians take great pride and confidence in. Certainly that confidence was on show against Huddersfield on the opening day, and coupling that comfortable performance with the battling qualities and organisation demonstrated against Watford on matchday two should mean that Steven Schumacher’s side are well-set for a good performance here. Russell Martin’s Southampton side is taking it’s baby steps into the vision that the manager has for the team. The style of play is already apparent, with a dominance of the ball on the pitch, but there are balance issues that are clearly putting the defence under a lot of pressure in transition. This is providing a lot of entertainment in Southampton matches, with Norwich taking full advantage of their frailities in the 4-4 draw at St. Mary’s. Indeed, the very small sample size of two matches currently sees Southampton as the division’s entertainers with 8.6xG of chances created in their matches. The Saints’ total of 5.5xG is second only to Blackburn Rovers in their matches, and they have fired off 54 shots, well clear of Watford in second place. Plymouth, though, have the right tactical profile and personnel to thrive against Saints. Their speed and accuracy on transition is their favourite way to play, and with Morgan Whittaker, Bali Mumba, and Ryan Hardie all finding their Championship form early on, there should be goals on the menu at Home Park.

This could ultimately prove to be a season too far for Cheltenham Town, after the Robins have enjoyed four consecutive campaigns of overperformance relative to their budget. Wade Elliott’s side have lost all three in the league so far without troubling the scorers and travel to Fratton Park with Portsmouth having scored six unanswered goals from the back end of their season opener to now. Colby Bishop has two in two for Pompey and showed how emphatic his finishing ability can be in grabbing the only goal of the game against Exeter City in midweek. John Mousinho has galvanised the city since replacing Danny Cowley last season and could take Pompey into the early automatic promotion places with a win over Cheltenham. Pompey won both matches between the two sides last season to an aggregate score of 6-0 and should impose themselves with ease. There is a palpable sense of optimism on the South Coast at the moment, and Pompey should be fresh for this fixture having rotated the side to beat the Grecians on Tuesday, while holding a preparation advantage with two home games in the same week as the Robins face another potentially demoralising road trip. We are taking a pro-Pompey goals angle to extract further value.

Last Tuesday, Wrexham picked up their first Football League win since 2008. It was a typically chaotic 4-2 victory over Walsall, a reminder of the immense firepower that the Red Dragons possess, but also of their vulnerability. Phil Parkinson’s side stormed to the National League title by having a variety of ways of getting the ball into the box, and a variety of players who can attack the deliveries. Central centre-back Ben Tozer has a long flat throw that is a constant weapon, often targeting the heads of powerful striker Ollie Palmer or new centre-back Will Boyle. Elliot Lee lurks around the box to provide shots from range and make third man runs during open play. Jacob Mendy, Callum McFadzean, James McClean, Anthony Forde and Ryan Barnett compete for starts in attacking wing-back roles. Even in the absence of star striker Paul Mullin, Ollie Palmer, Jake Bickerstaff, Sam Dalby and Billy Waters are capable frontmen who will contribute across the season. It's been a similarly eventful start to 2023-24 for Swindon Town. Their opening weekend game at Colchester United was uniquely called off due to a waterlogged pitch, but the Robins have since gone on to score at least once in every game they have played. Michael Flynn was a new arrival in the County Ground dugout this summer, and has quickly implemented a 3-4-1-2 where outside centre-backs Frazer Blake-Tracy and Udoka Godwin-Malife play key roles. Remeao Hutton provides creativity with deliveries from right-wing-back. Milton Keynes Dons loanee Dan Kemp can provide very strong output from attacking midfield or out on the right. Veteran striker Charlie Austin awaits his first goal of the new season, partnered for now by Jake Young. The latter is a 21-year-old Bradford City loanee who has shown flashes of quality previously, but has needed a run of games to really show what he can be about. The Racecourse Ground crowd will expect another win, and expect another goalfest. Wrexham collected 67 points from a possible 69 at home last season, scoring in every single game. The Red Dragons have scored two or more at home in all but two games this calendar year. Swindon Town come to north Wales well aware of the firepower Wrexham have, but also knowing that the front-footed approach leaves their opponents susceptible to counter attacks and deliveries from wide areas. Aside from the Carabao Cup penalty shootout win over Wigan Athletic, the two games at the Racecourse in 2023-24 have seen eight goals and six goals respectively. This weekend’s matchup should continue that trend.

This match is one of the lowest expected goal matches of the weekend, but there is more than enough talent on the pitch to take advantage of that bookmaker opinion. Whilst it was a blow for Bristol City to lose the services of Tommy Conway, Sam Bell looks ready now to hurt Championship defences and with the guile and guidance of Nakhi Wells and Andreas Weimann as well as the trickery of Anis Mehmeti, there is a good attacking unit there. It may seem a bizarre point to make, but in Rob Dickie, Rob Atkinson, and Zak Vyner, the Robins also have themselves a collection of centre backs who also know where the net is, as well as the likes of Matty James being able to contribute from midfield. It is obvious to see where the bookmakers are getting their lines from though as Bristol City have generated only 2.5xG in their 2 matches, but whilst this is bottom half of the league, carrying on this trend would make them heavy favourites to score at least once. City are also in the top half for their chances conceded, at 1.8xG over two games. Again, whilst this is good from a Robins perspective, it is hardly watertight with their opponents averaging 0.9xG, practically a goal’s worth of chances per game. Birmingham haven’t quite looked like they have solved the puzzle going forwards yet this season. They had to rely on a late penalty for their win, won by Siriki Dembele, who also scored their opening goal of the season. Dembele will likely be a key figure in Birmingham’s goal getting this season and if Birmingham can add another goal threat on that front then they should be absolutely fine on that front. Birmingham matches so far have totalled 5.1xG, which is a pretty healthy amount of chances for the two Championship matches so far and certainly worthy of backing such a low line here.