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England v Finland
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Kick Off: Tuesday 10th September at 19:45
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Competition: Nations League
Fresh from a routine win in Dublin, England return to Wembley Stadium to take on Finland on Tuesday evening for what promises to be another comfortable evening’s work for the Three Lions in the Nations League.
Finland have pride to restore following a dismal 3-0 loss in Piraeus against Greece in their Group 2 opener on Saturday, though priced as long as 14/1 to upset the odds in London this week, the Huuhkajat’s chances of rebuilding some self-belief are slim.
England v Finland Best Bets
England have been priced as short as 1.08 to beat Finland at Wembley Stadium on Tuesday, however, the goal markets offer much better value and backing England to score over 2.5 goals in London is a more attractive prospect.
Lee Carsley’s free-flowing England scored a modest two goals in Dublin against Ireland on Saturday, however, they racked up 2.42 in xGF, hit nine shots on target and forced Caoimhín Kelleher to make seven saves at The Aviva Stadium, suggesting their margin of victory could have been greater.
With a slightly more clinical showing, England could do better with the chances they create against a Finland side that shipped three goals at Slovenia, four at Wales, four at Portugal and three at Greece inside their last six away matches.
Elsewhere, consideration should be given to Finland’s Matti Peltola to commit 2+ fouls on Tuesday at generous odds of 2.00. The impetuous 22-year-old won just his ninth cap on Saturday against Greece and committed three fouls in the Finns’ defeat.
Peltola, who has been averaging 2.90 tackles and 1.40 fouls per 90 minutes for his club D.C. United in the MLS this season, should have numerous opportunities to stick the boot in against a possession-hungry England side, so expect the anchorman’s foul count to rise accordingly.
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📊 England Form and Stats
In what had been billed pre-match as a potential banana skin, England sailed through their Nations League opener against Ireland in Dublin on Saturday, allowing interim boss Lee Carsley to make a winning start to his temporary tenure against his Irish brethren.
While the standard of opposition at the Aviva Stadium was subpar, England’s performance was impressively dominant, especially in the first half.
The Three Lions controlled a mammoth 82% possession, clocked nine attempts, created four big chances and converted two through former Irish internationals, Declan Rice and Jack Grealish in the first 45
England coasted through the second half and eventually played 713 passes during their composed display – a tally that topped their passing figures for six of their seven matches at Euro 2024 in the summer.
The Three Lions played with noticeably more freedom and creative expression in Dublin, with an unshackled Jack Grealish revelling as a floating attacking midfielder and a forward line of Anthony Gordon (three), Bukayo Saka(three) and Harry Kane (four) mustering 11 shots between them.
England achieved an xGF of 2.42 while conceding just 0.58 in xGF at the opposite end, further highlighting the depth of their command in Dublin, and they will look to dominate just as convincingly against Finland at Wembley Stadium.
England’s players drew 15 fouls and four bookings from their Irish counterparts on Saturday, with Grealish (four), Gordon (three), Saka (three) and Kane (three) all on the receiving end at least three times each.
📊 Finland Form and Stats
Finland limped to a 3-0 defeat in Greece in their first Nations League fixture of the new campaign, however, the margin of defeat flattered the hosts on an evening of misfortune for the Finns on Saturday.
Indeed, Finland had been the brighter of the two teams before a massive error from keeper Lukas Hradecky allowed Greece to steal a lead. A Benjamin Kallman own goal doubled the Greek advantage just before the break, leaving Finland with too much to do after the interval.
The visitors enjoyed more possession (54%) than Greece at the weekend, but failed to manufacture a single clear-cut chance and left the Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki with an xGF of just 0.59.
Ironically, the scorer of their own goal, Benjamin Kallman, was the only Finnish player to get a shot on target on Saturday evening, while defensive midfielder Matti Peltola was the standout individual for fouls committed (three) in Greece.
Finland’s heavy defeat was the latest in a string of poor defensive performances on the road. The Finns have lost four of their last six away assignments since October last year, conceding at least three goals in each defeat.
⚔️ England v Finland Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record from meetings between England and Finland could hardly be one more-sided and in 11 previous encounters between the teams since 1937, the Three Lions were winners on nine occasions with two tussles ending all square.
We have to flip the calendar back 23 years to find the last time England and Finland crossed paths, however.
The countries’ most recent clash came at Anfield back in 2001 in a World Cup qualification fixture on Merseyside when England rebounded from a goal down to win 2-1 thanks to goals either side of the break from Michael Owen and David Beckham.
Current Finnish Head Coach Markku Kanerva also took charge against an English team when he was the manager of his country’s U21 earlier in his career.
Kanerva’s young Finns were beaten 2-1 by Stuart Pearse’s England in the opening game of the 2009 European Under 21 Championship back then. Micah Richards and Lee Cattermole scored England’s goals in that triumph.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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