In this fixture,Italy have a very young and inexperienced forward line which could struggle to break down a strong England defence that has not leaked many goals in recent fixtures. Although I think England will likely secure victory in this fixture it may not be the most entertaining affair so instead of the conventional Bet Builder, I have picked out my top 5 players to watch for a card. This decision is made in no small part due to the influence of the man officiating this fixture Szymon Marciniak.

Marciniak averages just under four bookings per game across his 530-match career. In his one previous Italy game, there were five bookings, and seven in his only England match to date. So, this could be a fixture in which we see several cards produced, especially when considering this is the first time these sides have met since the final of the Euros. Szymon Marciniak officiated 5 World Cup Qualifiers in which he produced 29 yellow cards at an average of 5.8 per game if this continues into this fixture then there could be a number of cards produced in this fixture.

Team news & Predicted lineups

With card bets relying predominantly on players featuring in the match the first thing I thought I would focus on is the team news and how I think the sides will line up for this fixture.

For England, midfielder Kalvin Philips was forced off the pitch early against Germany due to a collision with new Borussia Dortmund defender Nico Schlotterbeck, which was described as a “severe dead leg” by Southgate. As a result, it is difficult to see the player featuring in Saturday’s fixture which leaves the two holding midfielder roles to be likely filled by Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham.

England are also hopeful that young talent Phil Foden will be eligible to play after missing the previous fixture due to a positive COVID-19 test. However, Jack Grealish performed well when coming off the bench against Germany, so I expect him to start and Foden to feature late on if eligible. Other news coming out of the England camp that proteins to the full-backs that will feature in Southgate’s system includes James Justin being a doubt on the left and Alexander-Arnold taking his leave after a long season. This will likely mean we see Kieran Tripper and Reece James fill in for these absent players.

Meanwhile, Italy have allowed Bonucci and Belotti to leave for their holidays before Saturday’s game, suggesting to me that Mancini and Bastoni will likely be tasked with stopping Harry Kane as the two Italian centre-halfs. There were some noticeable absences in their previous fixtures with players such as Florenzi and Scamacca not featuring in the squad on matchday two, but with players such as Locatelli and Tonali battling for a position in the midfield Mancini will have some difficult choices to make for this game.

England v Italy Predicted Line-ups

England’s possible starting lineup (4-2-3-1): Ramsdale; James, Stones, Guehi, Trippier; Rice, Bellingham; Bowen, Mount, Grealish; Kane

Italy’s possible starting lineup (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Mancini, Spinazzola; Pellegrini, Tonali, Barella; Gnonto, Scamacca, Raspadori

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Giovanni Di Lorenzo

Jack Grealish has consistently been one of the most fouled players in the Premier League over the last couple of seasons. Grealish was the most fouled player in the league in his final season at Aston Villa, being brought down a staggering 167 times, 47 more times than anyone else. Although since signing for City he has struggled to find his place in Pep Guardiola’s side he has still consistently drawn fouls.

Grealish’s key attribute is carrying the ball forward this tends to attract fouls regularly, the 26-year-old was fouled 2.3 times per game enough to make him the 5^th most fouled player in the league in the season just gone. For this reason, the whole Italian defence is at risk of being shown a card, especially the right-back who I expect to be Di Lorenzo as Grealish will likely start on the left-wing.

The Napoli player was shown a yellow card in his last start for Italy in the Finalissima at Wembley and matched up against Grealish, there is a strong possibility he enters the referee’s book again in this fixture. At the Euros, Di Lorenzo featured in 6 of Italy’s 7 games averaging 2.2 fouls per game and picking up one yellow card against Austria. The last time these two sides met Di Lorenzo was dribbled past once and gave away 2 fouls and this was without England playing a conventional winger.

With England almost certainly playing wingers in this match, with a player who draws a lot of fouls like Grealish playing on the left Di Lorenzo seems like a strong choice for a yellow card and priced at 5.0 this is certainly a shrewd selection if he starts.

Gianluca Mancini

As mentioned previously Bonucci has been allowed to leave the camp early and will not feature for the remainder of the Nations League fixtures. For this reason, I expect Mancini to keep his place in the team despite conceding an own goal in the previous game against Hungary. Mancini has been one of the standout talents for Roma this season featuring in 33 of their 38 Serie A games and was a big reason for their European success. Lucky for us Mancini is not shy of a booking as he received 14 yellow cards and was dismissed against Milan for a second bookable offence in January.

Similarly, in the Conference League Mancini was awarded 5 yellow cards in his 10 games and fouled his opposition an average of 2.3 times per 90. Against a side, with the attacking talent of England and fresh off an underwhelming performance in their last fixture, the pressure will be on Mancini and he will do well to escape this game without entering Szymon Marciniak’s book.

Gianluca Mancini is the favourite to be shown a card in this fixture at 3.1 on Paddy Power and facing up against Harry Kane, who drew 1.5 fouls in the league, as well as Jack Grealish it is clear to see why.

Lorenzo Pellegrini

Another player to have thrived under the tutelage of Jose Mourinho at Roma this season is Lorenzo Pellegrini. Not only does he captain the side but he’s also one of their strongest players grabbing himself 6 goal contributions this season. However, it’s not his impressive attacking performances that interest us in this article but his poor discipline. In the Serie A this season Pellegrini was shown 6 yellow cards and 1 red whilst averaging 1.6 fouls per game, in the Conference League final he was shown a yellow card for arguing with the ref and has already been booked in this Nations League campaign.

Pellegrini has scored in both of Italy’s Nation League games so far and is such a versatile player that it seems unlikely Roberto Mancini will drop him for this fixture. However, there is strong competition for his place in the side with the likes of Locatelli rivalling him for game time. For this reason, there is pressure on Pellegrini to perform in these fixtures and against a strong England side and with a card-happy ref, this pressure may result in a booking.

It is difficult to effectively analyse the matchups for Pellegrini in this match. This is because he is utilised in many different positions in Mancini’s system playing within the midfield or on the wing. However, what is clear is that he predominantly plays on the left suggesting he will be tasked with defending the overlapping runs of James a player who averages 1.2 fouls per game as well as potentially Bowen, a player who has caused problems for defenders in the Premier League this season.

Lorenzo Pellegrini is priced at 4.2 on Paddy Power and seems like a strong selection for a card bet if he starts.

Nicolò Barella

The fourth and final Italian player that seems like a statistically strong choice to pick up a card in this fixture is Nicolò Barella. For many, Barella is likely to be one of the key figures in this new generation of Italian talent and he has performed at a very high level since introducing himself on the world stage. However, something that needs to be addressed in Barella’s game if he is going to rival the prestige of the great Italian midfielders before him is his discipline.

Barella has received 3 yellow cards in his last 3 appearances for club and country. Receiving a booking in the last nations league fixture against Hungary and in the Finalissima for a foul on Romero.  

Despite not playing in the first Nations League game he played well against Hungary, scoring the first goal of the match. As a result, I expect Mancini to reward him with the start in this fixture on the right of his midfield 3. If this is the case, then Barella will likely match up against Jude Bellingham. This match-up could be a pivotal aspect of the fixture and result in a potential card to one if not both of these players. Bellingham averages a very high 2.8 fouls per game in the Bundesliga and could cause some serious issues for Barella who is his opposite number in midfield.

Nicolò Barella is priced at 3.1 on Paddy Power and if the match-up between him and Jude Bellingham results in several fouls there is a high chance of Barella receiving a booking in this fixture.

Jude Bellingham

As I mentioned in the previous selection, I expect one of the main match-ups in this fixture to take place in the heart of midfield. Italy have a very inexperienced attack on display in this Nations League competition so if England are going to receive cards in this game I don’t expect them to come from the defensive unit. The trio that I expect Mancini to play all average a high number of fouls drawn per game; Barella averages 1.4, Pellegrini averages 1.8 and Tonali averages 1.4. These statistics seem to suggest that the most likely England players to receive a booking are the two holding midfielders who are likely to be Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham.

Rice is significantly less involved when it comes to matters of discipline than Bellingham. He only averages 0.8 fouls per game and draws as little as 0.3 fouls per 90. Bellingham on the other hand averages 1.2 fouls per game and draws 2.8 Bellingham also received 1 more card this season than Rice. Another important factor to consider as well is that Bellingham is only 18 and has very little international experience. He might play to a standard of a man who is well beyond his years but Bellingham is still a relative child in a footballing sense and against a side, with the quality of Italy in midfield this inexperience may lead to a booking.

Jude Bellingham is priced at 5.0 on Paddy Power and with the quality of Italy’s midfield coupled with the potential matchup against Nicolò Barella, this seems like a solid selection for a card bet.

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How to watch England v Italy in the UEFA Nations League

📅   When is England v Italy? / Saturday, 11th June 2022, 19:45
🏟   Where is England v Italy? / Molineux Stadium (Wolverhampton)
📺   What TV channel is England v Italy on? / Channel 4
🟨   …And who is the referee for England v Italy? / Szymon Marciniak