England v Malta

Friday night’s football entertainment takes us to Wembley, where England are hosting Malta. The Three Lions currently top the table in Group C, having already qualified for Germany with an unbeaten run. It is the exact opposite story for Malta, who sit at the bottom of the group having lost all seven games so far.

Image Credit: FotMob

England have conceded just three goals over their six games so far, scoring 19. It is none other than Harry Kane who has been leading from the front for The Three Lions, scoring seven goals so far. They played against Italy their last time out, winning the game 3-1, perhaps getting a shard of redemption for the last Euros.

Maltese fans would have been pleased to see their team open the scoring last time they played against Ukraine, albeit to last for only 26 minutes and for them to lose 3-1. This represented one of two goals for Malta so far in this competition. 

This article covers the main betting angles for this fixture, providing stats from the England v Malta Cheat Sheet. Despite this game shaping up to be so one-sided, there is a surprising level of value to be found. If you like the look of any of the picks below, why not add them into an England v Malta bet builder?

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England v Malta Cheat Sheet

This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.

You can find England v Malta stats on my Bet Builder stats tool, along with official lineups one hour before kick-off.

Now, for our breakdown and preview with recommended bets…

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⚽ Goals stats: Malta likely to concede a hatful of goals

The last time these two played, back in June, England won 4-0, yet Malta were lucky to have not conceded more. Malta did not manage to take a single shot, let alone a shot on target. England on the other hand managed eight shots on target.

England have been averaging the fifth-highest shots on target in the competition (6.67), whilst Malta have been conceding an average of 5.57. It is highly likely that England will continue this high volume shooting, and Malta will continue to concede lots of shots on Friday night. This plays well into the narrative of the handicap market.

If you are unfamiliar, the handicap market means that a given team start on a different number of goals. For example, if the selection was England (-2.0), England would effectively start the game two goals down. They would then have to win by three or more in order for the selection to win.

Predictions:

🏆 England (-2 handicap) @ 1.25

🏆 England (-3 handicap) @ 1.73

🏆 England (-4 handicap) @ 2.20

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🎯 Shooting stats: So many options up top for England

England have been a serious threat going forward this past year. As per usual, Kane has been on fire both in England and domestically in Germany following his move in the summer.

Kane to score first is an interesting market. He is priced at just 1.20 to score any time but 2.80 to score first, representing a large amount of value.

Another England threat up top is Cole Palmer, who has recently been called up to represent his country. The youngster has been thriving at Chelsea since his move from Manchester City, scoring four goals in six starts. Over these games, he has averaged over a shot on target per match, and 2.50 shots per game.

Predictions:

🎯 Harry Kane to have 2+ shots on target @ 1.17

⚽ Harry Kane to score first @ 2.70

🎯 Cole Palmer to have 2+ shots on target @ 1.50

⚽ Cole Palmer to score anytime @ 1.83

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🚩 Corner stats: A few left-field picks with serious potential value

As is the case for much of the betting markets in this game, England are massive favourites. In fact, it isn’t even worth considering betting on England for corners; they are priced at 1/200 for over 3.5 corners. 

So, we turn to Maltese corners. They are priced at an astounding 6/1 to have just three corners. They have managed this feat against Italy, Ukraine and North Macedonia so far in their EURO qualifying games, averaging just shy of two corners across their qualifying campaign.

Predictions:

🚩 Over 2.5 Malta corners @ 7.0

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🟨 Card stats: A card-happy ref can only mean one thing

Despite this game no longer meaning anything for Malta, they are sure to be playing with pride. Any team travelling to Wembley does the same. Italy committed 15 fouls and Australia 13, in England’s last two home games.

Interestingly, even when clearly dominating a game, England have a high tendency to keep fouling. In their 7-0 home victory against North Macedonia, The Three Lions committed 13 fouls and received two bookings.

Luís Miguel Branco Godinho is in charge of this clash on Friday, and he has a history of high levels of discipline in the games he manages. Over his career as a ref, he has awarded an average of 33.42 fouls and 4.95 yellow cards per game. For reference, the average fouls per game in the Premier League are between 20 and 22, and the average yellows are between three and four.

If you thought this game would be dull in terms of fouling action, think again.

Predictions:

🟨 Over 2.5 cards @ 1.60

🟨 Over 3.5 cards @ 2.70

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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