Gem Bet: England Women v Italy Women
Harry Nye
Harry is a Christchurch-based football enthusiast whose love for sport and numbers naturally led him into the world of sports betting. While studying Mathematics at university, Harry began combining his analytical mindset with his passion for football. Harry focuses predominantly on football, with a particular emphasis on the Bundesliga this season, though as a Liverpool supporter (with a soft spot for QPR thanks to his dad), English football remains close to his heart. Whether it's late-night research or diving into stat models, Harry thrives on spotting the bets others might miss.
💎 Gem Bet: Cristiana Girelli to have 1+ Shots on Target v England Women @ 1.62 (Paddy Power)
- England Women v Italy Women
- UEFA Women's Euro Semi-Final
- 22:00
Cristiana Girelli to register at least one shot on target in Tuesday night’s semi-final between Italy and England is generously priced at 1.62 with Paddy Power, particularly when compared to odds as low as 1.33 with bet365. Considering her central attacking role, consistency in front of goal, and Italy’s reliance on her, this is a value angle that deserves attention.
Girelli, Italy’s captain and talisman, has been the heartbeat of her nation’s run to the final four. Her last-minute header against Norway in the quarter-final not only sealed progression but capped off a match-winning brace that exemplified her importance to this squad. That performance marked her seventh consecutive international start in which she has hit the target, a stretch that includes two or more shots on target in three of her last four appearances.
The numbers further underline her impact:
2.11 shots on target per 90 at Euro 2025
Responsible for 33% of Italy’s total SOTs at the tournament
Scored three of Italy’s five goals so far
Given she’s started three of Italy’s four games, her per-90 output paints a greater picture of heavy involvement. If she had played all four 90 minutes, her percentage contribution to team shooting accuracy could have exceeded 40%.
While England’s defensive record is formidable (conceding just 3.75 SOTs per 90 across this tournament), this likely low volume of chances for Italy does little to diminish the likelihood of Girelli’s involvement. When the Azzurre do create, it is most often through her.
In fact, in their last meeting (in which Girelli played just nine minutes as substitute), both Italian strikers that started that match were the only players to register a shot on target, reinforcing how central the striker role is in Italy’s attacking output, and underlining why that responsibility is likely to fall on Girelli this time around.
In a game where chances may be few and far between for the underdogs, the one player you can expect to test the goalkeeper is Girelli. At odds of 1.62, it’s a smart, stats-backed selection.
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