💎 Gem Bet: Alessia Russo - Over 1.5 Shots on Target v Wales Women @ 1.61 (bet365)

Alessia Russo to have two or more shots on target in England’s final Euro Group D clash against Wales on Sunday is well priced at 1.61 with bet365, providing value when compared to Paddy Power’s shorter 1.36 odds. 

This price point appears to undervalue the context of the fixture, particularly given the strength of the opposition and the likely pattern of play.

England are overwhelming favourites to win this fixture and are best priced at 1.06, translating to an implied 94.3% probability of victory. Such lopsided odds suggest one-way traffic is expected from the reigning European champions, and it’s hard to argue otherwise when examining the data.

Ranked 5th in the world, England face a struggling Wales side ranked 30th, who have lost four straight as well as five of their last six (drawing one) and have conceded 11 goals in their last three matches alone. More tellingly, their defensive structure has been consistently breached, allowing 8, 7, 8, 6, 9, and 6 shots on target across those last six games, an average of nearly 7.33 SOTs conceded per game.

What stands out is the vulnerability in the middle. In those same fixtures, the opposition striker registered 3, 1, 2, 2, 0, and 2 shots on target. Modest but consistent numbers, indicating Wales concede quality chances in central areas, exactly where Russo operates.

As for England, while their recent form is mixed (W3, L3), their attacking output remains potent, averaging 6.5 shots on target per game over their last six. Russo featured in four of those, often playing a central role in England’s attacking phases:

• Against Netherlands: England had six shots on target, with Russo accounting for two (33%)

• Against France: England managed just two shots on target — Russo had 0

• Against Jamaica: 17 total shots on target — Russo with two

• Against Spain: England had two shots on target — Russo again with one (50%)

These figures illustrate that even in low-chance games, Russo has often been responsible for a significant share of England’s shots on target tally. And when England dominated against weaker opposition like Jamaica (ranked 40th), Russo still registered multiple shots on target despite the abundance of attacking options.

Given the stakes (England need a convincing win to ensure progression) and the likely attacking dominance, Russo’s role as the spearhead striker makes her a prime candidate to benefit from sustained pressure. The 1.61 price at bet365 doesn’t fully reflect the mismatch, Russo’s attacking metrics, or her positional importance, having two or more shots on target a value play in a game where England are expected to overwhelm Wales.