Joao Felix looks really well-suited to Conceicao’s system and has flourished since his January move to Milan. He’s hit the ground running at Milan, registering a shot on target in three of his four appearances so far, including a mere 30-minute cameo against Roma.

His attacking intent is nothing new; at Chelsea, despite severely limited minutes, he managed at least one shot on goal in each of his last six appearances, accumulating just 300 minutes in that span. Over the course of the Premier League season, Félix averaged 1.48 shots on target per 90 minutes.

He tested the keeper as many as 3 times in the reverse leg which shouldn’t come as a huge surprise given Feyenoord have conceded an average of 5.67 shots on target per match in the Champions League.

Milambo’s average of 1.34 fouls drawn per 90 minutes in The Eredivisie suggests there could be value here, value which is further enhanced when looking at his recent record.

Milambo has drawn at least 1 foul in each of his most recent 7 games including Feyenoord’s last meeting with Milan. Looking at his form in The Champions League, we see that the midfielder has been fouled at least once in 6 out of 8 appearances to date.

His most direct opponent on Tuesday will be Joao Felix which could spell trouble for the defensive midfielder given Joao Felix has averaged a remarkable 3.75 fouls drawn per 90 since his move to Italy. 

Despite coming into this clash 1-0 down on aggregate, Milan should have more than enough quality to overturn the deficit, having adapted well to Conceicao’s drastically different tactics.

Milan find themselves behind, courtesy of Mike Maignan who let in what should have been a fairly routine stop at his near post. Other than that Feyenoords created fairly little, although they did effectively suppress Milan.

This is likely to come as a harder task at The San Siro where The Rossoneri are unbeaten in 12, recording 7 wins and 5 draws over the period. It’s also worth mentioning that the last time Feyenoord were on the road in The Champions League, they were hit for 6 in an embarrassing defeat at the hands of Lille.

Feyenoord have been very disciplined this season, averaging a mere 1.48 cards per game across all competitions. This selection has come home in 26 of their 31 games to date, including each of the last 8, and 8 of their 9 Champions League clashes.

Milan have shown little to suggest an exception might be on the cards here, with over 62% of their matches this season seeing their opponents booked fewer than 3 times.

This selection was a winner as these sides came head-to-head in the reverse fixture, and Tuesday’s referee implies the same is likely to occur. Szymon Marciniak has averaged no more than 2.71 cards distributed per game this season, with that figure falling even lower to 2.00 in the Champions League.

Igor Paixao’s average of 2.64 shots per 90 minutes in The Eredivisie implies strong value here, particularly given that he’s maintained a similar rate of 2.56 shots in The Champions League.

He fired off 3 in the reverse leg and has managed 12 across his most recent 3 appearances although his form predates this period too. This selection has been a winner in 12 of his last 16 games and 7 out of 9 in the Champions League. He’s managed the feat. in games against Bayern, Man City, Bayer Leverkusen, and Man City already this season.

Milan’s defence has been ropey at best in The Champions League this season, averaging over 13 shots conceded per game, a step up from the 10.6 they concede on average in Serie A.

Carranza has boasted an impressive average of 2.32 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season, making it surprising to see him priced this generously to feature prominently in the market.

The Argentine forward has won 2 or more fouls in 5 of his last 6 appearances (45+ minutes), only falling short when winning 1 against Sparta Rotterdam before being taken off around the hour mark before he could make it 2.

In The Champions League, Carranza’s average rises to 3.53 fouls drawn per 90 with the bulk of his appearances coming off the bench. This selection has already been a winner against Milan, Man City, and Benfica, despite him playing just 45 minutes in the prior and 16 in the latter.

Milan’s league games have produced an average of 4.29 cards with this selection coming home in 12 of their last 20 games. That said, their games at The San Siro tend to be more civil affairs, with that average falling significantly to just 3.23 cards.

It’s a similar story for Feyenoord who have brought this selection home in 14 of their last 18 matches. Additionally, they’ve picked up an average of just 1.44 cards per game in The Champions League to date.

Szymon Marciniak is the referee appointed to run this affair which adds further value to the selection given he’s averaged just 2.71 cards awarded per game this season, dropping to 2.00 when only considering his Champions League matches.

Feyenoord have won at least 5 corners in 86% of their matches in The Eredivisie this season, and undoubtedly offer value in the market. Although they understandably haven’t come close to replicating these figures in The Champions League, they have taken 4 or more in 6 out of 9 clashes in the competition, including the reverse leg against Milan when Feyenoord won 5 over the 90.

As for Milan, they’ve conceded an average of 4.18 corners per game this season, allowing a minimum of 4 in 6 of their most recent 7 clashes. In 7 of their 9 UCL games have Milan’s opponents won at least 4 corners, and given what we saw in Rotterdam, there’s little reason to suggest this game will be any different.