Football Accumulator Tips Today

I’ve been really impressed with Fabian Hurzeler’s side so far this season, they sit third in the Premier League - behind only Arsenal and Manchester City - having won four of their opening six games and notably scoring 18 goals in the process.

No side has scored more goals in the Premier League than Brighton this season, with the Seagulls scoring eight of these goals across their three home games. They’ve won two of these matches, including beating Arsenal at the Amex just before the international break.

Hurzeler had the luxury of rotating more extremely for Brighton’s midweek Conference League clash, but Sage had to field a pretty similar lineup to the one that started in Lyon - where Palace lost 3-2. 

That lack of squad depth could be the point of difference between these sides, with Brighton looking really strong at home and Palace conceding 12 goals across their opening six matches of the Premier League season. 

Elland Road is one of the toughest places to visit in the Premier League. Leeds have the quality and ferocious home support to make this an awkward task for United, who have failed to win any of their last five matches across all competitions.

Most recently, United fell to a 2-0 defeat against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League. Carrick tried a new shape in that game, lining United up in a 4-3-3 but their press was all over the place and Atletico managed to break the deadlock inside one minute - which set the tone for the rest of the game.

Leeds also put in a pretty good account of themselves against the reigning champions away from home last time out - managing five shots on target at the Emirates, which is not a shot volume that Arteta’s side concede regularly.

Leeds avoided defeat against United in both head to head meetings between the sides last season, with this fixture finishing 1-1 thanks to a swift equaliser by Cunha after Aaronsen had opened the scoring a few minutes prior. 

I really don’t trust Celtic at the moment.

They may be top of the league in the Scottish Premiership, but that ranking is a tad deceiving when looking at their current form. Celtic have only managed to win one of their last five matches, losing the other four, most recently conceding four goals against Benfica in the Europa League.

Hearts also had a European assignment ahead of this clash as they drew 1-1 with Nordsjaelland in front of their own fans. They’ve scored in each of their last 15 matches, which lines up well with the fact that Celtic have kept just one shutout in their last five matches across all competitions.

Hearts and Celtic faced off four times last season, with Hearts managing to get on the scoresheet in all four games. They also became one of the few sides to actually win at Celtic Park over recent seasons with a 2-1 win over Celtic back in December last year.

Real Madrid made tough work of their trip to Rome during the week in the Champions League, eventually coming away 4-3 winners due to a few errors by Roma’s stand in keeper - but they were 3-1 down at one stage of that game.

Mourinho’s men have put in some solid performances so far, especially in front of their own fans in LaLiga where they’ve won all four games at the Bernabeu by an aggregate scoreline of 13-2. This represents an important game for Real Madrid too, they’re already six points behind Barcelona in the LaLiga title race and can’t afford for that gap to get any bigger.

Sevilla are yet to lose on the road in LaLiga, but have lost each of their last three games ahead of this clash - including conceding three goals and an xG of 1.82 to Levante in their most recent assignment, which highlights the vulnerabilities that Madrid can look to expose here.

Fiorentina have the 3rd-worst defence in Serie A, conceding 14 goals in six games without keeping a single clean sheet.

They're up against the team that takes more shots than anyone else in the league.

Como are averaging 22.67 shots per game and 1.69 xG away from home.

Nico Paz has taken more shots than any other player in Serie A, with 31 attempts, and he's expected to start for Como.

But there's some good news for Fiorentina too. Como have conceded in all four of their away games, while Fiorentina are averaging 1.77 xG at home.

Their defence might not inspire much confidence, but Fiorentina's attack is starting to look better.

They've scored in their last four games, there's a good chance we'll see goals at both ends.

Leverkusen and Freiburg have scored in all five of their Bundesliga games this season.

They're also joint-3rd for goals scored, with 14 each.

Leverkusen have now scored in 17 Bundesliga games in a row. The last time they failed to find the net was back in February against Union Berlin.

Their main man is Patrik Schick, who's scored in all five games so far this season and is the league's top scorer.

But don't overlook the visitors. Freiburg are top of the table and averaging 2.04 xG and 19 shots per game away from home.

Suzuki is suspended, but Matanović and Eggestein are both available. They've both scored three goals this season, so Freiburg still have plenty of firepower.

Groningen have scored at least twice in all four of their home games, averaging 1.75 xG and 19 shots per match.

They're 6th in the Eredivisie, but their defence is what's been holding them back.

Both teams have scored in 88% of Groningen's games. Groningen have found the net in all eight matches but conceded in seven of them.

Ajax have a similar problem. They've got the 3rd-best attack in the league with 22 goals, but they've also conceded in their last five games.

Van Bergen and Willumsson have scored 10 goals between them for Groningen, while Ajax have Arokodare and Brandt, who've scored four each.

With all four expected to play, I expect to see BTTS land.

These two met less than three months ago, and what a game that was.

It finished 3–2, with 35 shots and a combined 5.28 xG.

This time, Vålerenga are at home, but they've been pretty poor defensively there.

They've scored in eight of their 11 home games, but they've only managed one clean sheet, conceding an average of 1.7 goals per match.

Brann have the 4th-best away attack in the league, scoring 19 goals in 10 games, they've also conceded in eight of those matches.

With both teams looking so shaky at the back, there's a good chance we'll see goals at both ends again, just like we did in July.

Gladbach are bottom of the Bundesliga with the worst defence in the league.

So far, their only real positive has been their attack at home.

They've scored three goals in both of their home games.

However, they've conceded four each time, losing both matches 4–3.

Hoffenheim are just one place above them and haven't managed a single clean sheet either.

Their defence is one of the main reasons they're sitting second from bottom.

Both teams have scored in five of Hoffenheim's games, and they've already conceded 13 goals in the Bundesliga.

Gladbach are averaging 2.94 xG at home, while Hoffenheim are averaging 1.81 xG away.

With both defences looking this poor, it's hard to imagine either attack failing to score here.

NEC Nijmegen can score against some of the best defences in the Eredivisie, but they also can't keep a clean sheet against the weakest attacks.

They've scored against league leaders Feyenoord and Ajax, but they've also conceded in every single league game.

They couldn't even keep a clean sheet against PEC Zwolle, who've scored just six goals all season.

That explains why both teams have scored in 100% of NEC's home games, with five goals scored and eight conceded in four matches.

Fortuna have scored in all four of their away games, including a 2–2 draw against PSV. But they're also allowing 19 shots per game.

NEC's shaky defence and the number of chances Fortuna give away make BTTS look like a sensible play in this one.

This is a meeting that regularly produces goals, each of the last seven head to head clashes - stretching back to 2023 - have seen BTTS.

The most recent clash saw Rosenborg come away 2-1 winners as the home side, generating an xG of 2.08 to Sarpsborg’s 0.91. The meeting prior to that also saw BTTS & No Draw, with Sarpsborg getting the better of Rosenborg in that clash with a 3-2 victory.

Recent form is also promising for this angle, Rosenborg have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches with three of these games seeing BTTS & No Draw. Rosenborg have only drawn four of their 22 league games this term, with only one of their 10 away games ending level.

There’s a similar pattern with Sarpsborg’s home games as well, only three of their 10 games have ended level with 24 goals across these games - perfectly split by goals scored and goals conceded. 

Groningen have started the season quite well compared to their pre-season expectations, losing just two of their opening eight matches which has left them just one point behind Ajax ahead of this clash.

Ajax fell to a surprising 2-1 defeat to Hajduk Split during the week, marking the fifth consecutive game where Ajax have seen BTTS. Three of these games have ended in BTTS & No Draw, so it’s clear that Ajax are frequently in high scoring matches.

Groningen have scored nine goals across their four home games so far this term, so I think they’ll have enough firepower to trouble an Ajax backline that has failed to keep a clean sheet across their last six matches.

Fatigue could also play a part here, Ajax had to travel to Croatia during the week while Groningen had a whole week to recover following their 5-1 thrashing of Excelsior on the road. 

Valerenga have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, seeing BTTS & No Draw in three of these games - including their most recent assignment as they lost 2-1 to KFUM on the road.

That game saw them register an xG of 1.70 from 22 shots despite the defeat, but they did allow KFUM to generate an xG of 2.04 themselves despite taking eight fewer shots than their opponents.

Valerenga are used to being a bit open at the back, they have failed to keep a clean sheet across their last 25 matches. That opens the door for Brann, who have scored 19 goals across their 10 away games this term, to contribute to the overall goal tally.

Each of the last four head to head meetings between these sides, all taking place since 2025, have seen BTTS & No Draw. The most recent clash saw Valerenga come away 3-2 winners with the sides combining to produce an xG of 5.37.

Nijmegen have seen BTTS in each of their last three matches, with all three of these games ending 1-1.

Nijmegen faced an xG against of 1.0 or higher in all three of these matches, suggesting that there is an issue with their defensive structure that opposition sides are starting to work out following their incredible season last year.

They are yet to win a home game in the Eredivisie this season, though their four games have produced 13 goals (3.25 per game). 

Fortuna Sittard actually boast the second strongest away record of any side in the Eredivisie, winning three of their four games on the road so far this term. They’ve scored nine goals across these games, conceding six, and only one of these games has ended level. 

The 32-year-old may be past the peak of his career, but he is still certainly getting involved whenever he’s wearing a Sunderland shirt.

Defensively he proves to be a valuable asset, but he also knows how to win fouls.

Going forward, the Mozambique international attempts only 0.62 dribbles per 90, but in doing so he is averaging 1.25 fouls won a game.

In his last five Premier League appearances, he’s drawn six fouls, reading 1, 1, 1, 2, 1.

With Alex Scott and Kroupi Jr still ruled out for Bournemouth, there is a chance Rayan plays a more central role, with David Brooks featuring out on the right side after being rested midweek against Sturm Graz.

Across his 90 minutes this season, he’s committed three fouls.

If Rayan does start on the right, he’s proven to be less inclined to foul his opponent, but his preferred run into the inside right channel allows right back Smith to get forward too, who commits 1.24 fouls a game instead.

Either way, Reinildo will certainly have a matchup whoever he is against down that flank, and he knows how to use that experience to convince the referee when he feels he’s been hard done by.

Brighton have enjoyed a month full of awards, including Manager of the month, Goal of the month, and German midfielder Gross winning player of the month.

But his matchup against Wharton and Timber is something that is worth paying attention to.

Whilst his attacking numbers have been incredible, the 35-year-old is averaging 1.35 fouls per 90 across all competitions, a number that jumps to 2.0 in the Prem alone.

That figure is only beaten by Chema Andres in the Brighton squad.

Hurzeler’s side will be looking to continue their fine start to the season against rivals Palace, so Gross’ 12 fouls and trend of committing at least one in each of his six starts is not something likely to end here.

Especially when Palace’s Dutch midfielder Timber is drawing 2.5 fouls alone this season, too.

Gross might be involved in the Seagulls' attack, but I also think he gets cautioned at the Amex here as well.

No player has benefitted more form United’s lack of elite striker options than Mbeumo, often starting upfront in place of Sesko, Zirkzee and Cunha.

And even when he does start on the right, he tends to drift into central positions where he can look to get shots away in front of goal.

In the league this season, no United player has scored more than his three, and he tops the clubs rankings for xG and shots taken.

In fact, of his 3.5 shots per 90, 1.3 of them tend to land on target, with 83% of all shots United have taken this season coming from the right and central channels.

Leeds have looked impressive defensively this season, and no team have conceded less goals per 90 than them, only letting in five across their six league matches, keeping two clean sheets along the way.

But what stands out to me is goalkeeper James Trafford is being forced into 4.0 saves a game, the 2nd most in the league, so they concede plenty of chances, too.

Mbeumo started on the bench in their last competitive face-off, but Sesko and Diallo raked up four shots on target between them from positions Mbeumo will likely find himself in.

He’s had six shots on target in his last five, with at least one in each of them, so that’s a trend he’ll be looking to continue here.

Only Brentford this season commit more fouls per 90 than Nottingham Forest, averaging 14.2 a game.

That’s a figure that’s seen them awarded 15 yellow cards this season, too.

Referee Michael Oliver isn’t scared of reaching for his pocket this season, either, dishing out 14 yellows at a rate of 2.8 a game.

He’s also one of seven refs to have produced a red.

In other words, I don’t think he’ll be letting anyone get away with too much in this fixture.

As for Arsenal, they are averaging 15.8 fouls won per game so far, which is the most of any side in the top-flight, whilst Saka sits as the 4th most fouled player of anyone in the league, being brought down three times a game.

Lewis-Skelly has also been fouled in each of his last five appearances, and with Arsenal tending to enjoy the majority of the ball, it’ll require great discipline from Forest to not get reckless in trying to win it back.

Ryan Christie has only featured sporadically this season so far, but with Alex Scott out injured he has been given a larger role in recent weeks. He started against Chelsea last weekend, during which he had one shot at Stamford Bridge. However, Christie seems to play with a lot more confidence in the final third at the Vitality Stadium. 

In fact, he accounted for four of Bournemouth’s nine shots against Liverpool just before the international break. Christie even scored a hat-trick against Lincoln City in the EFL Cup at the start of September. Last season, Christie had an average of 2.12 shots per 90 across all competitions, rising steeply to 3.09 when playing at home.

Yasin Ayari recorded two shots during Brighton’s 2-0 victory at Sunderland last weekend, meaning he has landed this selection in both matches when playing in that advanced midfield role. In fact, Ayari is averaging 2.9 shots per 90 across all competitions this campaign, despite having played slightly deeper prior to the international break. 

The Swedish international has been arriving late in the box, looking to make second striker runs, while he also fancies his chances from distance. He scored a wonderful goal for Sweden during the international break, so he is a player full of confidence at the moment. With Brighton expected to dominate proceedings at the Amex against Crystal Palace, Ayari is one to keep an eye on.

James Justin scored the opening goal for Leeds at the Emirates Stadium last weekend, although that eventually proved in vain as his side lost 2-1 in the end.

Still, he managed three shots against the reigning Premier League champions, which is an impressive return. He doesn’t usually hesitate to break forward and join the attacks, and he has recorded a shot in six of his last seven starts across all competitions. He has even managed to get on the scoresheet in two of those matches. 

Man United are a side lacking confidence at the moment, which Leeds will hope to exploit at Elland Road. There should be plenty of chances for the hosts this weekend.

Man United saw their winless streak extended to five matches midweek, as they were beaten 2-0 by Atletico Madrid at the Metropolitano.

Matheus Cunha was only able to make a brief appearance off the bench against his former club, but he still managed to land this selection with one shot on target. Whenever the Brazilian has played this season, he has always looked to make things happen in the final third, and he will expect to come back into the starting eleven against Leeds here. 

Cunha is averaging 2.8 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, which has translated to two goals. He was on the scoresheet against Leeds at Elland Road last season, so he should be looking forward to this matchup.

Oliver Glasner was left scratching his head last weekend over how his side were beaten 3-1 by his former club, Crystal Palace. Forest racked up 24 shots worth 3.34 xG, but their wastefulness in the final third was punished. Morgan Gibbs-White accounted for two of those efforts, taking his average to 1.83 shots per 90 this season across all competitions.

Last season, Gibbs-White averaged 2.9 shots per 90 at the City Ground, and he landed this selection against Arsenal. Forest managed just six shots as a team in that game, but Gibbs-White accounted for two of those. Even though this is a tough matchup against Arsenal, there should still be chances for Forest on the break, and Gibbs-White will have to play a massive role in the final third if his side are to pose a danger.

Smith is worth keeping an eye on. He's already picked up three yellow cards in six Premier League games this season, the same number he received throughout the whole of last season.

Those three yellows have come in around 500 minutes on the pitch, compared to 1,078 minutes for his three cards last season.

Craig Pawson seems to be a bit stricter this season too. He showed four yellow cards in each of his first two games and seven in his most recent one, between Aston Villa and Brentford.

Angulo and Reinildo could give Smith a tough time down his side of the pitch.

Both are getting fouled more than once per game, and with a referee like Pawson in charge, that could be bad news for Smith.

Agoumé has gone from averaging 1.9 fouls per 90 minutes last season to 2.2 this season in La Liga.

He's committed more fouls than anyone else at Sevilla, with 18 so far, and has already picked up two yellow cards.

One of those came against Barcelona, and he'll face another tough opponent this weekend.

Against Levante last time out, he committed five fouls, his highest number in a La Liga game this season.

Agoumé is expected to come up against Jude Bellingham in midfield.

Bellingham is the second-most fouled player at Real Madrid, averaging 2.6 fouls won per game.

Agoumé was booked the last time he faced Real Madrid, and looking at how he's been playing this season, it wouldn't be a surprise to see it happen again.

Tyler Adams looks too big to ignore when it comes to committing at least two fouls during this contest.

Since being restored to the starting XI, the tough-tackling Bournemouth midfielder has been falling foul of the referee on a regular basis.

In fact, Adams has committed 11 fouls across his four Premier League starts this season.

Notably, 5 of those fouls came away at Chelsea last weekend, with the all-action American also picking up a yellow card.

He is likely to find himself operating in similar areas to Enzo Le Fee, Granit Xhaka and Noah Sadiki, all of whom have drawn averages north of 1.50 fouls per game for Sunderland in the Premier League this season.

Nordi Mukiele has contributed consistently to that record, and he has been fouled in four of his last five starts. He is expected to fill in at centre back this weekend, as Dan Ballard remains injured, which should put him directly up against Evanilson. 

The Bournemouth striker has been leading the press for Marco Rose, and he has committed a foul in seven out of eight starts across all competitions. That includes multiple infringements in four of those. He has been aggressive up top for the Cherries, looking to make life difficult for opposing defenders, so Mukiele will have to deal with that pressure on the south coast this weekend.

Chema Andres has quickly established himself as a starter in this in-form Brighton eleven. He played the full 90 as the Seagulls beat Man United 3-2 at Old Trafford, overturning a two-goal deficit.

He then found the back of the net in a 3-0 victory over Arsenal just before the international break. Brighton have won all four games in which Andres has featured in, and the Spanish international has committed multiple fouls in all of those as well.

The 21-year-old had an average of 1.21 fouls per 90 across all competitions for Stuttgart last season, but he is given a much greater defensive responsibility for Brighton.

Harry Maguire watched on from the bench midweek as Man United were beaten 2-0 by Atletico Madrid, and Leny Yoro was sent off.

The Englishman had started the two Premier League games before that, and he was fouled a total of four times. Despite being an incredibly physical player, Maguire does at times go down quite easily to buy cheap free-kicks, and he had an excellent record last season for drawing fouls at the back.

He was fouled in 11 out of 15 starts under Michael Carrick. Maguire will be up against Dominic Calvert-Lewin this weekend - the striker is averaging 2.32 fouls per 90 across all competitions this campaign which is the highest in the Leeds squad.

No Nottingham Forest player has drawn more fouls than Neco Williams this season, and the wingback will have to play a big role if Forest are to take any points from Arsenal this weekend.

He will be directly up against Bukayo Saka, and Arsenal often look to concentrate play down that right flank. Williams should see plenty of involvement, and he is going to have to try and buy his side cheap free-kicks at times to alleviate the pressure.

Williams is adept at doing that, and he has a history of causing frustration for the Gunners. He was fouled three times at the City Ground in this fixture last season, and he has landed this selection in three of his last four starts against Arsenal.