Football Accumulator Tips Today

The Cherries are in incredible form. They’ve won seven on the spin in all comps, keeping six clean sheets.

They’ve averaged 1.57 xG and cruised past Manchester United last time out.

They’re excellent in attack, with Evanilson and Marcus Tavernier performing particularly well recently.

Ipswich have the second highest xGA in the Premier League at 2 per match and one of the lowest xG’s at 1.28.

Sociedad have won 4 of their last 5 La Liga matches and they’ve lost just one home game so far, which was against Atletico Madrid.

They’ve averaged 1.58 xG and notably, they have been much sterner defensively at home, averaging 1.32 xGA compared to 2.05 away.

That strength at home matches up well with Vallecano’s lacklustre away form.

The visitors are winless in five away matches which includes shipping five to Barcelona and four to Real Madrid.

In total, they’ve managed just two points from a possible 15 on their travels.

Freiburg are going really well and are keeping pace at the top of the Bundesliga with five wins from their opening eight games.

Only Bayern and RB Leipzig have outscored them and on home soil they’ve won three from four, only tasting defeat to Bayern.

Their home metrics are very impressive as they average 1.69 xG and restrict their opponents to just 1.06 and even that is inflated by the 1.98 Bayern had.

Union Berlin have won just one game this season and on the road their returns have been laughable.

They’ve taken one point and scored just a single goal in three games, shipping 12 in the process with an eye-watering 2.75xGA.

Both teams have been free-scoring of late and gamestate will lend itself towards goals if one team is leading heading into the closing exchanges of the game - the margin of defeat is irrelevant in a cup tie.

8th-tier Stafford beat Gateshead, of the National League, 5-0 in a replay in the final round of qualifying, and currently sit 2nd in the Northern Premier League Division One West with 11 wins and three defeats.

Grimsby, who beat Man Utd in the EFL Cup last season, will have to contend with Tom Tonks’ long throws (see Tamworth v Tottenham from 24/25 if you don’t remember these missiles) whenever they concede a throw in their own third.

Which doesn’t bode well considering they’ve conceded six goals and 0.49 xG per game from set pieces in League Two this season, and Stafford can turn every throw in the Grimsby defensive third into a set piece.

Grimsby have been reliable going forward this season and come into this game off an epic 5-2 win over York.

Only Barnet and Salford have scored more than Grimsby in the fourth tier, and they’ve seen over 2.5 goals in five of their seven league away games.

This game is definitely on the upset radar given how Crawley have played this season.

There hasn’t been an uplift since Kevin Blackwell’s arrival in an interim capacity replacing Colin Kazim-Richards in the dugout, despite what results suggest.

They won 1-0 at Oldham last weekend, but it was a hugely unconvincing performance considering the hosts were reduced to nine men from the 30th minute onwards.

That was their first league win since late August and their first league clean sheet of the season (which definitely has an asterisk next to it).

Wimborne will have moments on their own patch, they have five-time Northern Ireland international Josh McQuoid and average 1.69 goals for per game in the league this term.

Crawley’s three EFL Trophy games this season average 3.67 total goals and they lost 3-0 at Boreham Wood at this stage of the FA Cup last season.

In fact, Crawley’s FA Cup first round encounter has seen three or more goals in each of the last four seasons.

Oldham have been one of the biggest data outliers, and unsustainable underperformers, in League Two this season, scoring just 15 from 21.36 xG.

A regression to the mean in their finishing would see them contribute to the scoreline against Sheffield Wednesday.

Wednesday have been inconsistent this season, but have shown that when they click they can be devastating, beating Bromley 7-2 and AFC Wimbledon 5-0 earlier in the campaign.

Dave Challinor has recently replaced Henrik Pedersen in the dugout and will be keen to avoid embarrassment at Boundary Park.

Oldham saw over 3.5 goals in their two FA Cup outings last season, a similar tally is expected in this one.

Sunderland find themselves under a bit of pressure heading into this clash, winless in any of their last seven Premier League matches. They will need to bring the intensity at the Stadium of Light this weekend, but it’s a difficult matchup for them. The Blues are drawing an average of 12.0 fouls per game across all competitions this season, with the majority of those concentrated on their attacking midfielder.

Granit Xhaka will have to deal with the likes of Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers, and Pedro Neto, so he will have his hands full. The former Arsenal man is only averaging 0.7 fouls per 90 this season in the league, but this is an excellent matchup to increase that figure.

Julio Enciso has drawn 14 fouls in his nine Premier League appearances this season, averaging 1.7 per 90. The Paraguay international has been one of the standout performers in this struggling Ipswich side, and he has scored in back-to-back matches heading into this clash. Enciso will be full of confidence, and demanding the ball at every available opportunity.

Bournemouth are a team who like to be aggressive in their press, averaging 13.3 fouls per game across all competitions, rising even further to 14.6 fouls when playing. Tyler Adams has been a key contributor to that record, and he should find duels against Enciso at Portman Road this weekend.

Jean-Philippe Mateta’s red card in the 13th minute against Spurs last weekend forced Crystal Palace into a very deep block, as they were beaten 2-0 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Chris Richards couldn’t afford to commit a foul in that match, but he had landed this selection in five out of eight starts before that. That includes the last three successive home matches.

The American international has been kept busy this season, and he is set for another difficult task at Selhurst Park here. Cody Gakpo looks set to occupy the left wing for Liverpool, and the Dutchman is averaging 1.64 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions.

Costinha has been thrust into a starting role by Fabian Hurzeler in recent weeks, having to deal with an injury to Ferdi Kadoiglu. He has started the last five successive matches across all competitions, and has recorded at least two infringements in three of those. That includes picking up a yellow card against Getafe in the Conference League midweek, and another booking against Liverpool.

The Portuguese international likes to be aggressive in his duels, and he will have to deal with Kevin Schade this weekend. The German international was fouled three times against Nottingham Forest last time out, taking his average to 1.8 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season.

Johan Manzambi was the most fouled player in the Bundesliga last season by quite some distance - he was fouled a total of 78 times, with Antonio Nusa ranking second with 64. The Swiss international is adept at using his body to draw contact, and he excels at buying soft free-kicks. This season, Manzambi is averaging 2.3 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions, and he has landed this bet in six of his seven starts overall.

It hasn’t taken long for Manzambi to settle in at Villa - he sees plenty of the ball in an advanced midfield position, and will hope to pull the strings against Man United this weekend. Michael Carrick’s men racked up 20 infringements against Chelsea last weekend.

There’s a few reasons why I really like this selection. Firstly, my Boost includes the woodwork for a shot on target, which in itself is enticing. But his data and positioning is also really convincing.

The Portuguese has registed 1+ SOT in each of his last 5 league appearances, tallying 9 on target from 12 attempts during that same period. His last 3 games have seen him take 3 shots on target at Everton, 2 against Spurs and 2 against Man Utd.

Looking wider across the whole season so far, he’s had 12 accurate attempts from 17 shots, equalling 1.58 shots on target and 2.24 shots per 90. Those figures are also a considerable jump from last seasons 0.44 and 1.57 respectively. Alonso ball, eh.

Defensively they might be poor, sure. But you can’t ignore that attack, and Alonso has experimented in multiple ways since Joao Pedro’s absence. One of those experiments saw Estevao return to the starting 11, which meant Neto was utilised as a striker instead. It worked effectively as Chelsea put 2 past Man Utd, so I reckon the attack will stay the same for their trip here.

That central role means he could find himself in more promising positions. Sunderland, on the other hand, are struggling. Sitting bottom of the table, they concede 3.78 shots on target per 90, a stat that drops minimally to 3.25 when at the Stadium of Light. Roefs has been forced into 16 league saves, 1.78 per appearance, so defensively they too aren’t great.

Neto’s numbers are definitley more convincing when he’s playing at home, but his current record alongside potentially starting at striker again gives him the best possible chance of continuing that form.

Rayan has been a key figure on the right wing for Bournemouth this season, and he has five goals in 15 appearances across all competitions. The Brazilian is averaging 3.2 shots per 90 this season, which is the highest figure in the Bournemouth squad. He likes to cut inside onto his stronger left foot, which naturally opens up favourable shooting angles.

Ipswich haven’t been particularly good at limiting chances for their opponents - they have conceded 14 goals in their last six league matches alone, so they sit just four points above the relegation zone. Based on that, this looks like a strong matchup to target the Bournemouth forwards.

Liverpool suffered a 3-2 defeat in Istanbul on Wednesday evening, but it is worth noting that Andoni Iraola opted for some rotation. Florian Wirtz was one of those players who only featured from the bench, but he should get the nod to start against Palace here. With just one goal to his name from 14 appearances across all competitions this season, Wirtz hasn’t been particularly prolific in the final third, but he hasn’t lacked the confidence to shoot.

The German international is averaging 2.7 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has landed this bet in eight of his 11 starts.

Brighton secured a huge three points against Man City last weekend, as they held on to a narrow 1-0 victory. The Seagulls had to sit deep and absorb plenty of pressure, but they made it through to the final whistle without conceding. Charalampos Kostoulas spent much more time in his defensive half than he would’ve liked, so he failed to register a shot, but Brighton should have more chances in the final third against Brentford here.

The Greek international is averaging 3.2 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, and he already has four goals under his belt. Two of those goals have been scored at the Amex this term, where Kostoulas is averaging 4.45 shots per 90.

Nicolas Jackson has registered 18 shots on target across 13 appearances across all competitions this season, landing this selection in nine matches. He failed to hit this mark against Barcelona midweek, and against Arsenal earlier in the season, but the former Chelsea man should have more chances in the final third here.

Man United broke their winless streak of nine games against Roma midweek, but they still conceded twice against the Italian side. Michael Carrick’s men have struggled at the back this season, They are only above the relegation zone because of goal difference, and their tally of 15 goals conceded is one of the highest in the division.

One of the toughest assignments in football over the last 10 years or so has been trying to break the stranglehold that PSV, Ajax and Feyenoord have on the Eredivisie - but Twente are giving it a really good go at the moment.

The home side sit just two points behind the league leaders, Feyenoord, and just one point behind the visiting side here. Twente have won seven of their 11 matches in the Eredivisie, scoring 28 goals in the process (2.54 per game).

They are really free scoring at the moment, netting nine against Excelsior last time out and scoring 13 goals across their last three matches in total. They’ve also already beaten PSV 3-2 at home this season, so it’s not like they’ve been playing really weak sides all the way through.

Ajax have scored in all 17 of their matches this season, including some Conference League qualifying matches early on in the campaign. They’ve won all five of their away games domestically, scoring 18 goals in the process (3.6 per game).

This fixture has slowly grown into one of the most competitive in the Premier League, with both sides establishing themselves in the top flight with very similar recruitment and scouting models.

There’s also a bit of background with the owners, I’ve seen it described as a ‘Cold War’ before - which is a good way to put it - but that rivalry does extend to the pitch with both teams being shown a card in each of the last three head to head meetings between the clubs.

It’s not just the background around this game which pulls me towards cards, both teams have solid card records in the Premier League this season. Brighton are averaging 2.33 cards per game, while drawing 1.22 cards per game from their opponents.

Brentford have a similar record, averaging 2.44 cards per game and drawing 1.78 cards per game from their opponents. Brentford have picked up at least one card in all nine of their Premier League matches this season, being one of only five sides with this record.

Brighton have picked up 2+ cards in eight of their nine Premier League matches this season, with the exception of an uncompetitive 5-0 win over Coventry. They’ve actually picked up at least three cards in two of their four home matches as well.

Monza may sit in the relegation zone in Serie A, but only six sides in Serie A have scored more goals than them this season (17 - 1.70 per game).

They’ve even outscored the likes of Juventus so far this season, and have netted one more goal than their opponents here.

Atalanta are really vulnerable at the back. They’ve conceded 20 goals across their 10 matches in Serie A (2.0 per game), and just have the solitary clean sheet as well - which was a fortunate one against Bologna at home (1.05 xG against) right at the start of the campaign.

Their general form over the last few weeks has also been poor. They lost 3-0 to Parma at home on Monday, and also have to contest a Conference League clash before this one which gives Monza a fitness advantage over their opponents.

Monza have scored nine goals across their four home games this term, winning two of these matches. We just need them to score, which looks more than plausible against a hopeless Atalanta side.

Como are on some run at the moment.

They’ve won each of their last six matches, netting 22 goals in the process.

Cesc Fabregas’ side put nine goals past Lens in the Champions League during the week, highlighting just how much confidence this young and talented side are playing with at the moment.

I don’t think they’ll be phased by the trip to face Inter Milan, which is admittedly the toughest assignment for any side in the division, and we only need them to score once.

Inter’s underlying attacking numbers are really positive, but there are clear defensive issues. Five sides in Serie A have conceded fewer goals than Inter this season, and they’ve only kept three clean sheets across their 10 matches (30%).

Fiorentina, Club Brugge, Udinese and Monza have all scored against Inter at home this season. Como enter this game with real confidence, and have enough players firing to score at least once.