💎 Gem Bet: Sakina Karchaoui to have 2+ Shots v England (W) @ 3.30 (Paddy Power)

Sakina Karchaoui to register two or more shots in Saturday night’s UEFA Women’s Euro Group D opener between France and England represents clear value at odds of 3.3 with Paddy Power. That price implies just a 30% chance of landing, while bet365 has this same selection as short as 1.83 (54.6%). For context, she is priced as low as 1.2 with some bookmakers to record just one shot, which aligns closely with her recent output and role.

Once a traditional fullback, Karchaoui has been transformed into a much more advanced, midfield-oriented role under France’s new head coach Laurent Bonadéi. Her pace, vision, and dynamic dribbling now play a central part in France’s fluid, transition-heavy attack, and this positional change has had a profound effect on her attacking output.

Since this tactical shift, across her last 10 international appearances, Karchaoui has averaged 2.29 shots per 90 minutes and has hit two or more shots in seven of those matches (a 70% success rate). During that same span, France have averaged 14 shots per match, with Karchaoui contributing approximately 16% of their total attempts, a substantial individual share for a midfield player.

England, while defending champions and favourites both in this fixture and the wider tournament, tend to concede a higher number of shots when facing elite opposition. Looking at their last 30 international matches, and from the stats available, they have faced six opponents ranked inside FIFA’s Top 11 (which now includes France). In these matches, they conceded 19, 20, 10, 12, 13, and 13 shots, which is a noticeable deviation from their typically dominant defensive record against lower-ranked teams.

This trend, combined with France’s red-hot form under Bonadéi (eight wins from eight in 2024), points to a top-quality side, high on confidence and momentum, suggesting France should create their fair share of opportunities.

Notably, when these two sides met in qualifying last year (before the employment of Laurent Bonadéi), Karchaoui was deployed in a more traditional right-back role and didn’t attempt a shot in either fixture. But with her redefined position now placing her higher up the pitch and firmly involved in the final third, she’s become a consistent shooting threat. The current price of 3.3 for 2+ shots offers significant value based on both recent form and tactical role, suggesting that Paddy Power’s prices haven’t yet caught up with her evolution.