Beerschot v Club Brugge

Friday night marks the end of the international break, and we are straight back into the thick of it in Belgium, with just two games to go in the regular Pro League season. The first game however isn’t particularly crucial for either team. Brugge will certainly want to win to keep the pressure on title rivals Union Saint-Gilloise, whilst their hosts Beerschot are already relegated, and have now lost six in a row stretching back to February 19th.

Some teams find they can play with some freedom once the inevitable is confirmed and they can no longer escape the drop, but this has certainly not been the case for Beerschot. They have shown some fight and occasionally looked like they may take a point from a game, but, as was the case again two weeks ago, always seem unable to hold onto the result and any points it may bring.

Club Brugge meanwhile are looking mightily impressive and will be posing a real headache for Union who looked almost certain to lift their first title in nearly 90 years. They have now won six games in a row, all of them by at least a two-goal margin, a run which has included three games against other sides in the top-8 play-off positions.

A goal handicap then should be no problem as Brugge roll into Antwerp to face De Ratten. They have recently beaten second-bottom Seraing 5-0 away from home, and have lost just once to any of the sides in the bottom half all season long, a 2-0 defeat to inter-city rivals Cercle. In their remaining 7 games against bottom-half opposition, the reigning champions have won 6 and drawn 1, with 5 of their 6 wins coming by 2 goals or more. 

Beerschot have nothing to lose here, but facing the Pro League’s most in-form, and potentially best side must be the last thing their players want right now. A result would be impressive, but ultimately meaningless, and the potential for a real embarrassment is hanging over them. They will hope to put on a show for the home fans in their final Pro League game of a crushingly disappointing season, but Brugge will almost certainly spoil the party. An early goal for the away side should see this game over as a contest as soon as the ball hits the back of the net. 

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Zulte-Waregem v Sint-Truiden

The first game on Saturday in the Pro League could be a lot more consequential. Zulte-Waregem should be safe, but they do have a mathematical chance of being dragged into the relegation play-off spots. Sint-Truiden meanwhile went level with rivals Genk, the current occupiers of the final play-off spot, before the international break. They are behind them on goal difference, and will likely need them to slip up to open a path to the play-offs, but even if it is a little unlikely, they will be desperate for two wins to end the season with the best possible chance.

Hosts Waregem will almost certainly survive for another season in the Pro League, but they will have a tough time claiming three points here when their opponents will be absolutely desperate for the win. Regardless, they are likely to find the net at least once, as they have failed to do so just three times this season in 16 games at the Elindus Arena.

Waregem have scored in 5 of their last 6 home games, the one exception being a tense 0-0 against Oostende who have also been in and around the relegation zone this season. This game was a low-key affair in which a draw suited both sides, so shouldn’t factor too much into our thinking. The other two sides who have kept clean sheets in Waregem this season are the current top-2, so Sint-Truiden will be well aware of the likelihood of conceding at least once.

The visitors also have an impressive record on the road, scoring in 11 of their 16 games away from home. In three of those games where they did not score they were facing top-6 opposition, who they would expect to be beaten by on most occasions. They have found the net in 6 of their last 7 games, and with the potential to snatch a play-off position from their great rivals lying ahead, I would be extremely surprised if they didn’t at least make it 7 from 8 after this tie.

Just under two-thirds of Waregem’s home games have seen both sides score, and all six of the games in which this did not occur were against either the top-2, or the four other teams in the bottom-6 with them. Sint-Truiden meanwhile have conceded 8 goals in 7 games against sides in the bottom-4, including the reverse fixture where they lost 3-1. Sint-Truiden need the result for their play-off hopes, but after squeezing past Beerschot unconvincingly last time out, there are certainly goals in this game for a side like Waregem.

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Oostende v Seraing

Entering the final weeks of the season always means looking ahead at permutations and what potential results would do to the table, and nowhere is this more relevant than the first of two tea-time games in the Pro League. Seraing are very likely to be the side playing for their survival in the relegation play-off, but all three of the sides above them are still mathematically able to be caught, including today’s hosts, Oostende.

A win for Seraing would move them to within three points, and a further win next week, alongside a loss for Oostende would allow them to leapfrog the side from Ostend. Oostende next face Eupen, another side involved in this battle, so a win for Seraing here, and a defeat for Eupen on Sunday would mean any result except a draw in that final game of the season would ensure Seraing can finish above at least one of these sides. 

Essentially, Seraing must win here to avoid the relegation play-offs. A loss or draw will leave them with too much to do on the final day, and as such this game really is likely to be extremely cautious from both sides. A draw will suit the hosts, confirming their safety, and they have been more than happy to shut up shop, especially when they have a goal to defend. They have not lost a game they were leading since January.

Seraing meanwhile will know that they cannot afford to concede, and while they need also to score, they will likely look to push forward in a controlled way, as losing a goal on the counter could be the final nail in their coffin. If they are able to get in front, they will be defending for their lives, and desperate to cling on.

Oostende have seen less than 3 goals in 9 of their 14 games against sides in the bottom-half this season, and this game is likely to be no exception. An early goal would be a surprise, but should not open the game up especially. This game also features the two least prolific sides in the Pro League, with Oostende managing just 30 goals this season, and Seraing even worse with only 28 goals in 32 games. These are really good odds considering the likelihood of a low-scoring affair here, and are definitely not to be passed up.

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Mechelen v Kortrijk

The second of the tea-time games in the Pro League, this should hopefully be a more goal-filled affair than the game in Ostend, with Mechelen’s home games seeing more goals than any other side (3.44 per game), bar Anderlecht. Opponents Kortrijk look to be obliging opposition, with their season now effectively over following a collapse in form that has seen them lose 8 of their last 9 games, and drop out of play-off contention. 

Mechelen have fantastic goalscoring pedigree at home, having scored twice or more in 12 of their 16 home games this season, including 6 of the last 7 Pro League games at the AFAS-Stadion. The only exception being a 1-0 defeat to Anderlecht who were in admittedly great form heading into that match. In three of their last four home league games, this selection would have landed before half-time, and the one exception would go on to land on the 53rd minute.

With the hosts scoring for fun at home, and not having failed to score in a league game in over two months, Kortrijk cannot be looking forward to this game. Their season is over, and they have been on a horrific run of form, failing to score in five of their last nine games in the Pro League, and conceding twice or more in seven of their last nine. They have conceded twice or more in four of their last five away league games.

Despite performing much better in the early part of the season, the side from along the French border have still conceded 1.85xG per game away from home, the third-worst record in the division. It looks like they are finally reverting to the mean, and their overperformance has slipped away, exposing them as the decidedly average side they are. 

Mechelen could not ask for a better opponent as they look to consolidate their position in the secondary play-off group, and with a 9-point deficit to make up on the side in fifth, Anderlecht, they will need to try and finish the season with two wins to make up for their recent run of draws which has dropped them to seventh. 

Kortrijk really do look to be on the beach already, and they should be obliging opponents for a celebratory final home game of the regular season for Mechelen. Bigger games await in the play-offs, but a win here keeps them in the hunt for European football, and I have little doubt Mechelen will claim one fairly comfortably here.

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OH Leuven v Antwerp

The final Saturday game in the Pro League is another game which could be vital for the final play-off positions. With Antwerp just one point ahead of Gent and Anderlecht, in fourth and fifth respectively, their championship play-off place is by no means assured and they will be all too aware that any slip ups could easily see them drop out of the top-4 altogether.

Leuven meanwhile are technically still in with a chance of making the top-8, but being four points and three places adrift means even the most optimistic OHL fan will probably admit they will not make it. Neither team arrives at this fixture off the back of a particularly good run of form, but there is still a clear gulf in class between the two sides. 

The hosts have stuttered somewhat, having failed to win any of their previous five Pro League games. This comes off the back of a run of just one defeat in 8 games which had seen them emerge as genuine play-off contenders. Now looking just slightly too far back, and with another tough game to come after this they are almost certainly going to miss out. They remain a threat however, their 0-0 draw with Anderlecht demonstrating that on their day they can hold out against even the best attacking sides in the division.

This should not on paper be an easy win for Antwerp, Leuven are a solid mid-table side who have shown themselves capable of causing problems for the bigger sides. However, their recent results have included a 4-1 thrashing by Union, and losing 3-1 to Eupen in what was their first, and still only, Pro League win since December 2021. Last time out, before the international break, they were unable to beat Seraing at home, despite the visitors having lost 7 away games in a row coming into the game.

Antwerp meanwhile, despite a dip in form,  still maintain their record of having scored in every away game they have played this season. They may have lost their last two games on the road, but these were tough fixtures against Club Brugge (2nd) and Anderlecht (5th) so the results are not surprising. Prior to these two fixtures, Antwerp were unbeaten in 6 Pro League away games. They also have a fantastic record away at bottom-half sides, having won 7 of these 8 matches. 

With both of their top-4 rivals having similar run-ins, Antwerp are in the driving seat, and two wins from two will ensure they enter the play-offs in third, at most six points behind league leaders Union. The goal for the players will undoubtedly be 6 points, and with Leuven essentially having nothing to play for, they have a great opportunity to claim the first 3 of those 6 here, but it won’t be a pushover and they will be made to work for it.

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