Union Saint-Gilloise v Oostende

First up for this weekend in the Pro League we have table-topping Union Saint-Gilloise hosting Oostende. Les Apaches are within touching distance of a first league title since the 1930’s, and the Tony Bloom owned side have been a cut above this season, celebrating their return to the top-flight by being both the highest-scoring team and the side which has conceded the least goals. They deserve the title, but will know they need to ensure the points gap remains as wide as possible heading into the play-offs.

For Union, 6 of their 9 matches against sides in the bottom-6 have seen them win by 2 or more goals, with the side from Brussels winning 8 and drawing 1 of these. 3 of their last 4 wins have been by a margin of at least 2 goals, and with 10 goals in their last 4, including a 4-1 win against a solid Leuven side last week, they look to be back to their best.

They have conceded just 3 goals in their last 4, and now have the league’s top scorer, Deniz Undav back in top form. His 0.82 goals per 90 is extremely impressive, and unmatched across the division. He is clearly hungry for more, claiming a hat-trick last week and a firing home a superb late winner the week before against Kortrijk, and Brighton fans should be pretty excited by the prospect of him joining them next summer.

Oostende meanwhile have very little to play for and even fewer reasons to be optimistic about this tie. All of their last 4 defeats have seen De Kustboys lose by 2 or more goals, whilst 5 of their 7 games against the top-4 have seen defeats by the same margin. All 3 away games against the current top-4 have been 3-0 defeats for the Ostend side, and the reverse fixture at home was a 7-1 thrashing in which Undav scored 4.

They have conceded twice or more in all 7 matches against the top-4, and struggle about as much as you would expect from one of the league’s worst sides against the best teams in the league. They have played 15 games against sides in the top-8, winning twice, drawing twice and losing the other 11. Their last two games have been 3-0 and 3-1 defeats against third-placed Anderlecht and second-placed Club Brugge respectively, and Oostende are now the second-lowest scoring side in the Pro League.

Everything points towards a comfortable Union victory here, and with their goalscoring pedigree there is little reason to believe they won’t put a few goals past a struggling Oostende. They are heavy favourites to win, but odds of 1.83 are excellent value for a -1 handicap, which should hopefully sail home quite comfortably. 

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Eupen v KV Mechelen

Mid-afternoon in Belgium’s Pro League has just the one tie, which sees Mechelen make the trip east to Eupen. Neither side can claim to be in particularly good form right now, with Mechelen on a run of three draws in a row, and hosts Eupen having waited nearly three months for their win against Leuven two weeks ago, the prior one arriving on December 11th.

Eupen have not set the world on fire under new manager Micheal Valkanis, however they are undeniably better off with him in charge. Whether it is a new manager bounce or not, they have 4 goals in his 4 games, and claimed both their first win in months and a 0-0 draw against the runaway league leaders, Union. They lost 3-0 last weekend but this was something of a freak result, with Waregem scoring some fantastic goals and Eupen striker Isaac Nuhu missing a gilt-edged chance in the second half to score.

Besides the backs to the wall defensive performance against Union, Eupen have generated around 1.5xG per game under the new manager, and have seen both sides scoring in 3 of their last 5, both overall, and specifically in home games. They have still managed just one clean sheet all season, so there should be few questions about Mechelen finding the net, but Eupen have proved more than capable themselves in recent weeks.

Mechelen have a similarly poor clean sheet record to Eupen’s, except theirs is when playing away from home, keeping just two away clean sheets all season, the last of these coming on October 17th. They currently sit a lowly 14th in the Pro League for away clean sheets, which is really poor for a side in the play-off positions. 

Both sides have scored in all 5 of Mechelen’s last 5 Pro League games, and in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. Their 2.27 goals conceded per game away from the AFAS Stadion is truly terrible, and it is no wonder they have conceded more (56) than they have scored (53) this season. 

Even more surprising is that in 8 of their 11 ties against sides in the bottom-6, like Eupen, both sides have scored. Even against the league’s worst sides Mechelen are unable to keep clean sheets, and this bodes well for a Eupen side which have turned a corner, and still do need to pick up points to be sure they will avoid the potential for a relegation play-off.

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Seraing v OH Leuven

The first of two tea-time Pro League games we are looking at is a very interesting match which could have enormous consequences for the relegation picture. Seraing are the current occupants of the relegation play-off spot, but should results go their way, could find themselves two and three points behind the three sides directly above them with 2 games remaining in the regular season. This truly would be a great escape, but with decent home form and 2 home ties in the 3 games left, it really could be on the cards.

A huge win last week for the hosts not only officially relegated Beerschot but also, as their first away win since November will have been a huge boost for the club. With a tricky relegation play-off now looking merely quite likely instead of near-certain, they have to believe they have a small chance, and a win here is absolutely essential if they are to escape at the death.

They have performed solidly against sides in the ‘middle-third’ of the table, with 4 wins in 10 games, an impressive return for a team that is second-bottom of the table. They have taken 9 points from 12 in home games against these sides, and know they must take another three points here to aid their push for survival.

With 5 wins and 2 draws from 15 home games this season being quite solid, and a record that mid-table sides could be happy with, without their abject away form Seraing would probably be well clear of the relegation picture. As it stands, their away form has got them into this mess, but their home performances could be what saves them.

Opponents Leuven arrive on the outskirts of Liege in a poor run of form. Having edged up towards the play-offs a few weeks ago, looking as though they may be able to challenge the top-8 who have remained unchanged for some time now, they immediately dropped off and failed to win any of their next four. They have scored just twice in these 4 games, and their season looks to be meandering to a solid but unspectacular mid-table finish.

They have won just 3 of their 11 games against sides in the bottom-6, and somehow have contrived to fail to win in 5 attempts against the current bottom-3, including four defeats and a draw. All of these defeats have come by at least a 2-goal margin, including their last away game against Eupen which finished 3-1. With only 3 away wins all season, this looks to be a real chance for Seraing, and I am quietly confident in their ability to grasp it.

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Sporting Charleroi v Cercle Brugge

The second tea-time match in the Pro League could be equally important, with Charleroi in sixth-place hosting something of a resurgent Cercle Brugge who are in with a real shout of making the play-offs. The hosts are just 5 points ahead of the visitors, although both sides between the two will go above them should they lose here. Cercle meanwhile are 2 points off the play-off spots, but have tough fixtures ahead and will know this may well be their ‘easiest’ game of the three remaining.

Charleroi are one of the worst performing sides in the division at home, having won on just five occasions. Four of these were against the bottom-4, whilst the other was against 8th-placed Genk. Besides the four wins against the sides at the bottom of the table, they have scored just 5 goals in 11 games, and have scored more than once only four times in 15 home games this season, including 7 times where they have failed to score entirely.

They have played five home games against teams in the ‘middle-third’, directly below themselves in 6th place, and have won just once, drawing two and losing the other two, scoring only twice in the process. With just 3 goals in their last 5 home games, and only 1 win, it does seem as though a Cercle side which is playing well and with some confidence may have a real chance.

Cercle meanwhile have found the net on every occasion they have played a team in the second play-off group (5th-8th), and are also in great recent form, scoring in all of their previous 6 games. They have also scored in every single away game they have played in the Pro League this season, a hugely impressive record that includes their poor start to the season when they were struggling for consistency.

They are unbeaten in 4 games, and have lost only twice in six games against sides in the second play-off group, both of which were unfortunate 2-1 losses in which Cercle deserved at least a draw, if not the win. Sitting pretty in 5th place for goals scored on the road, they will pose a massive challenge to a Charleroi side which draws blanks in front of their own fans on a very regular basis.

With tough games to come against Gent and Antwerp, Cercle really need points on the board and this will be seen as a great opportunity for three points. Charleroi are not pushovers, but you really do feel that they will be pushed hard today, and Cercle will surely come away from this game with at least some points.

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Royal Antwerp v Zulte-Waregem

The final Saturday Pro League fixture is one between two sides who weeks ago looked to be heading in opposite directions. Antwerp were comfortable in second and looked to be dead certs for the play-offs, whilst Waregem struggled following the winter break and began to slide towards the drop with their impressive overperformance in front of goal starting to fade. 

Instead, Antwerp find themselves in desperate need for points, having slipped to fourth following a poor run of form, and are now just one point clear of fifth-placed Gent after their 2-1 loss to Anderlecht last week which moved the side from Brussels into third at the expense of The Reds. 

Waregem’s clinical 3-0 win against Eupen last week was perhaps a little fortunate, however, they are now 6 points clear of the relegation play-offs, with 9 to play for. This should enable them to play with more freedom, and bring back the attacking verve we saw earlier in the season, knowing that they no longer need to grind out any points they possibly can. This game is now something of a free hit for Waregem, and hopefully they will really press Antwerp and make this game interesting.

Antwerp are usually good for goals, with over 2.5 landing in 5 of their previous 7. All of their 5 home games against the bottom-6 have seen over 2.5 goals also, with 4 of 5 also seeing both sides score. Their defence is strong, but not impenetrable and there is a good chance Waregem will find their way through it at least once this game.

They have only failed to score on two occasions at home all season, and have found the net twice or more on 9 occasions, including all five of their home games against the bottom-6. The reverse fixture finished 2-1, and the same result again wouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. 

Although it would seem that Waregem would need to be compact and grind out some results as they edged towards the bottom-2, nobody told the Essevee that, and their last five games have seen 3, 3, 1, 5 and 3 goals respectively. There has been a total of 20 goals in their last five away games, for an average of 4 goals per game. 

Against sides in the two play-off groups (1st-8th), 6 of their 7 away fixtures have seen over 2.5 goals, land, whilst 10 of their 14 games home and away have seen both sides score, demonstrating how Waregem are more than capable of scoring against any side in the division. They have failed to score only 6 times all season.

Having conceded twice or more in 7 of their last 8 away games, Waregem will provide an obliging opposition for Antwerp, especially with 22-goal Michael Frey in the side. Just 2 goals behind the league’s top scorer, he will be motivated as much by the chance to finish the season as Pro League top scorer as the team’s struggle for that final championship play-off spot.

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