If there is anyone in Serie A right now that is determined to show that they are better than the last few weeks suggest, then it’s Rafael Leao. The Portuguese forward is generally regarded as the best player in Serie A, but he hasn’t seemed like it recently.

He has been involved in very protracted contract talks with Milan amid heavy interest from wealthy clubs such as Manchester City, Chelsea and Real Madrid. The club and his agent recently had to come out and label a Gazzetta dello Sport article suggesting that the contract talks had fully broken down as false news.

He has been playing like a distracted player recently, but in every game there has been a suggestion that he will be back to his best shortly. His effort levels do not drop, but when everyone around you is out of form, it can be hard not to involuntarily follow suit.

15 of his 36 shots so far in Serie A this season have been on target which puts him in the 86th percentile for that metric in the league. Considering that Milan may be playing with a lot of frustration at their current situation, he could be shooting even more than normal.

Leao could find a decent amount of space down the left with Francesco Acerbi, predicted to start, not being the fastest defender. Whilst Milan Skriniar may be relatively quick, he is involved in his own contract dispute and may not even play. If he does, he may not be at his best.

The great players often get out of a slump in emphatic style and the Derby della Madonnina could be the perfect stage for Leao to get some shots on goal and help his team to a vital win.

This is a bet that is worth making any time that Theo Hernandez takes the pitch. The French full-back is a wonderful footballer and a great example of a modern, attacking left-back, but he really can moan.

He is always the first player into the referee’s ear whenever a decision goes against AC Milan and there is no reason why that should not be the case in what is one of the biggest games of the season. The Inter fans, being the home team, will be on his and the referee’s backs from the off and it feels inevitable that Hernandez will either talk his way into a booking or scythe someone down in frustration.

The fact that Romelu Lukaku is rumoured to be starting alongside Lautaro Martinez rather than Edin Dzeko means that the Nerazzurri will have two forwards that will look to sprint in behind the Milan defence.

That lends itself to a scenario where Hernandez is chasing one of the two strikers back towards his goal and is left with no choice but to make a foul and accept a yellow card. It could be a chaotic game with lots of situations like that.

Theo Hernandez is up to five yellow cards in Serie A already this season and he has featured in 17 matches, missing a handful through injury around Christmas and the New Year. He will be wound up and will have a point to prove after much criticism of his recent performances.

Hakan Calhanoglu will play at the heart of the Inter midfield for this one. The Turkey international is known for his long range efforts and passing ability but he has also been a persistent fouler this season. Calhanoglu is a poor tackler and is often left exposed in a midfield battle.

Calhanoglu has made 29 fouls this season, only Skriniar has made more for Inter Milan this season. During the last meeting between these sides, the midfielder made 2 fouls and was booked despite the fact his team won the game at a canter. He also made 3 fouls in the last league meetings between these sides.

This bet has landed in the last four Milan derby’s. Moreover, Hakan used to play his football for the other half of Milan so he should be more inclined to get stuck in.