In this article…
Introduction
The Azzurri are the current holders of the trophy, winning the Euros for the 2nd time in the 2020 edition. They’ve also finished as runners-up twice, in 2000 and 2012. They come into the tournament as seventh in the betting at 18/1. However, they were the same odds last time out and can never be ruled out in tournament football.
The key difference, however, is that the 2021 Italian edition were on the back of a 27-game unbeaten run going into the tournament and had relatively few injury issues. This time around, they miss out on the combined experience of Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci in defence and are very much a team in transition. Question marks remain around who will lead the line as a central striker and a lack of star quality in a less-than-vintage team means expectations are perhaps lower than usual.
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Make sure you take full advantage of free Euro 2024 betting tips & bet builder predictions hub, where you will find our Euro 2024 outright winner odds and stats as we cover each and every group in the tournament – you can find the rest of our Group B predictions here as well.
🔮 Euro 2024 predictions
Tournament Performance: Quarter-Finals
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Although we believe the gap between Italy and Spain are closer than the odds suggest, their record against the other main contenders for the trophy is patchy at best.
Two defeats against England in qualifying, a defeat against Spain, and a 5-2 hammering by Germany in 2022 will be a concern. They should be relatively comfortable against inferior opposition as their record suggests but a lack of squad depth compared to some of the other leading lights means options will be limited if the likes of Federico Chiesa, Nicolo Barella, or Alessandro Bastoni are injured or suspended.
They should be able to see off the Albanian challenge relatively comfortably, get past Croatia more narrowly and sneak a result against Spain. However, given they would be likely to play either Germany or England in the quarter-finals, that’s where we believe their journey will end and we bid them ‘Arrivederci’ until the next edition.
Italy Euro 2024 Qualifying Data
📖 How they qualified
Italy qualified in second in an awkward group behind England, losing twice to them home and away, as well as draws away to North Macedonia and Ukraine. The Ukrainians could feel hard done by, only missing out to Italy on goal difference and their head-to-head record – although they qualified via the play-offs anyway.
Italy have made a meal of qualifying for tournaments in recent years and it has not been a significant downturn in their success at them, once they are there.
With North Macedonia enjoying a stronger generation than in the previous decade and Ukraine heading into Euro 2024 heavily odds-on to progress from their group, while England are favourites, the group standings portray Italy as a side who fell over the line, but in reality it was a challenging group.
👕 Players to watch
Despite only featuring twice in qualifying, one name stands out in our stats table for Italy, Federico Chiesa. He’s had a frustrating time with injuries and a Juventus team not set up to maximise his talents. His versatility, being able to play on the wings and as a central forward, will be invaluable for the Azzurri and if he can reach the levels of some of his Euro 2020 performances, Italy have a chance of progressing deep into the tournament.
From deeper in midfield, Nicolo Barella will be key to controlling the tempo of Italy’s games and to stem the tide of Croatian and Spanish passing lanes. An outstanding talent, he’s now regarded as a senior member of this squad with all the expectations and pressure that brings.
* All odds displayed correctly at the time of publishing *
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