Retegui has been absolutely on fire this season, having already racked up 11 goals and 3 assists in Serie A for Atalanta.

He’s averaging 1.27 goals per 90 let alone shots on target although predictably, he also performs well in that department, averaging 1.85 per league match.

Across all competitions, Retegui has tested the keeper at least once in 12 of his last 13 starts, including in tough clashes with France, Belgium and Arsenal.

In Belgium’s four Nations League games to date, they’ve conceded a total of 19 shots on target – an average of just under 5 per game. If Italy are able to get even close to that figure, it’d be a huge surprise if their star forward isn’t responsible for at least one of them.

Locatelli seems to struggle to keep himself out of trouble, and given the calibre of opposition, is highly likely to slip up at least once.

He’s been penalised in 9 of his last 10 appearances, only evading the referee as Juventus took on Parma in October. Over the course of the season, Locatelli has averaged 1.56 fouls per 90 which is a step up from the 1.23 of his last campaign.

It’s likely Locatelli will find himself enthralled in a tangle with Amadou Onana who averaged 1.94 fouls drawn per 90 last season.

Barella has starred for Inter this season, demonstrating remarkable consistency where some of the Nerrazurri’s other key players have failed to do so.

The tricky midfield-maestro is averaging 1.69 fouls drawn per 90 and has been taken out at least once in each of his last six starts. Over the same period, he’s drawn 11 fouls, including 5 in Inter’s toughest match against Juventus.

Belgium’s midfield is presumed to consist of an eye-watering trio of Amadou Onana, Orel Mangala and Arthur Vermeeran. All three are averaging over 1.5 fouls per 90 this season meaning Barella could be in for a rough night.

In yet another market Barella has been consistent in this season, we think backing him to fire off just a single shot is fantastic value.

It’s a feat. he’s managed in eight of his nine league appearances this season; in fact he’s had two or more attempts at goal in each of his last five. For reference, three of those games came against Roma, Juventus and Napoli, some of Italy’s toughest competition.

Belgium have averaged 14.25 shots conceded per game in the Nations League, with even Israel managing 10. When these sides clashed in October, Italy took 8 shots, despite going down to 10 men as early as the 40th minute.

The last time these titans clashed, it resulted in a four-goal thriller, finishing 2-2 with plenty of chances created at both ends. Each of the last three clashes between Belgium and Italy have produced 3 or more goals and there’s no reason to suggest Thursday will be any different.

All four of Italy’s Nations League games have seen over 2.5 goals scored, averaging 4.00. The fact that both teams have scored in all four offers further encouragement, suggesting Italy are no longer the hyper-defensive outfit they once were.

As for Belgium, three of their four have exceeded 2.5 goals, meanwhile, their matches have averaged an impressive 3.38 expected goals produced.

The 2-2 scoreline from the last time these sides clashed certainly flatters Belgium who looked sure to concede a third even after Italy went down to 10 men. Until the red card it looked by all accounts like Italy could hit them for 4 or 5 on the day.

Beyond that, Italy have endured a fantastic Nations League campaign, sitting top of the group with three wins and a draw. They’ve exceeded their opponents in terms of xG in all four matches and are good value for their league position.

Belgium, on the other hand, have picked up just four points and come into this match with an injury list like no other. De Bruyne, Meunier, Doku, De Ketelaere and Tielemans make up just a few of their absentees.

Retegui has fired off at least three shots in six of his last seven starts, only failing to do so when he came one short against Venezia although he was taken off with 23 minutes to spare on that occasion.

In his last game for Italy, Retegui tested the Israel keeper three times, in addition to a further four shots which did not find the target.

Lukaku’s stature and lack of mobility make physicality a pretty central part of his game, and while often this results in him facilitating excellent buildup play with his back to goal, it also leads to the no-so-occasional foul.

This season he’s averaged 1.37 per 90 in the league, sinning at least once in seven of his ten games. It’s also worth mentioning that he came off early in all three of the exceptions.

Italy are likely to control possession on Thursday and Belgium could have a lot of defending to do which further increases the chances of a Lukaku foul.