Since joining Juventus, Kolo Muani has averaged 1.48 shots on target per 90 minutes, registering at least 1 on-target effort in all 5 of his appearances.

That includes the reverse leg against PSV when he really ought to have scored from an early close range effort drilled straight at the keeper.

Prior to his move, he maintained an even higher average of 1.80 shots on target per 90 in Ligue 1 this season, despite limited playing time.

PSV’s game is very much focused on attack and this can come at the expense of defensive solidity. They’ve conceded an average of 5.33 shots on target per game in the Champions League with Juventus sending 8 their way last time out.

Saibari has been very generously priced to draw just a single foul, as evidenced by his average of 1.37 fouls won per 90, in what should be a high-intensity clash in the Netherlands.

Saibari has been brought down at least once in 8 of his last 9 appearances – the sole exception being a short 30-minute stint off the bench in the Eredivisie.

In the Champions League, the Moroccan international has been fouled in 5 separate games despite starting only 6 and has drawn 2 or more fouls in each of his last 3 appearances.

Juventus’ league matches this season have produced an average of just 9.80 corners with them being fairly evenly split between the Bianconeri and their opposition. In the Champions League, this average drops even further to just 8.44. Across the 2 competitions, this selection has been a winner in 10 of the last 12 matches involving Juventus.

As for PSV, this selection has been a winner in 61% of their league matches despite them regularly racking up corners against weaker domestic opposition, averaging 7.61 taken alone. Juventus average 4.85 conceded per game and are unlikely to permit them to reach a tally like that.

This selection has been a winner in both of this season’s previous clashes between Juventus and PSV, which produced 6 corners and then 9 in the first leg most recently.

Although PSV away is always going to be a tough fixture, carrying a 1-0 lead into this clash it’s hard not to favour them to qualify for the next stage.

The Bianconeri have already beaten PSV twice this season, and arrive in some of their best form of the season having won 4 games on the bounce.

This is also likely to be the type of game that suits Thiago Motta’s desired playstyle, with the Italian coach likely instructing his players to sit back, defend as a unit, and aim to hit PSV on the counter. Given they’re already leading this match, the onus is on PSV to take the game to Juventus which could prove tricky.

PSV have consistently kept their discipline both domestically and in Europe, rarely finding themselves in the referee’s book. No Eredivisie side has been shown fewer cards than Peter Bosz’s men, who average just 0.87 bookings per game. This trend extends across all competitions, with this selection landing in each of their last 11 matches.

Juventus’ Champions League opponents have also not racked up many bookings, with only 1 of their 9 opponents – Aston Villa – receiving 3 or more cards. On average, their opposition has been booked just 1.33 times per game in the tournament. Looking at all competitions, this selection has been a winner in 11 of their last 14 fixtures.

Notably, PSV have picked up just a single card across their 2 meetings with Juventus this season.

Bakayoko has been 1 of PSV’s most consistent attacking threats this season, averaging 1.30 shots on target per 90 in the Eredivisie. Importantly, he has maintained this output in the Champions League, already testing the likes of Liverpool and PSG’s goalkeepers.

His reliability in front of goal is evident across all competitions, having registered at least 1 shot on target in 13 of his last 15 appearances when playing over an hour.

Kolo Muani has been a reliable pick in the fouls-drawn market, and given his strong start in Italy since his January switch from PSG, it’s surprising to see him offered at such generous odds.

Since his move, Kolo Muani has averaged 1.28 fouls won per 90 minutes, drawing at least 1 in 4 of his 5 appearances for the Bianconeri. Most recently he drew 3 fouls against Inter and in the game before he drew 1 against PSV.

The French forward averaged 1.80 fouls drawn per 90 minutes in Ligue 1 – a solid figure, yet notably his lowest season average since 2020/21, his first full campaign in top-flight football.

For a variety of reasons, a draw seems the most likely outcome of this clash which could be a tightly fought affair.

Perhaps most significantly, Juventus carry a 2-1 lead into this clash, enabling them to sit back and defend more astutely without distraction. We’ve seen the Bianconeri set up like this to great effect at times this season, relying on the counter-attack for chances.

Looking at things from another perspective, Juventus undoubtedly have the stronger 11 as reflected by their 2 victories against PSV this season, however, both games were in Italy and PSV boast a very strong home record which could easily counteract this.

The Dutch outfit are unbeaten at home this season having played 18 games, including 3 wins and a draw in the Champions League.