Koln and Hamburg earned promotion to the Bundesliga last season and have started their survival campaigns pretty strongly, with neither currently sitting in the drop zone. Koln have been the most impressive of the newly promoted sides to the Bundesliga, avoiding defeat in five of their eight matches, with these games producing 23 goals (2.8 per game).

Their three home games this season have produced 10 goals (3.33 per game) and we can expect an evenly matched contest here against a Hamburg side that have also been solid in their attempts to survive. Hamburg’s four away games have produced eight goals (2.0 per game), I’d expect their scoring power to increase here, with just one goal on the road for the newly promoted side so far.

This is also an opportunity for Hamburg to get their first away win of the season, which is an important duck to break in a newly promoted sides’ bid for survival. These sides met in this fixture in the 2. Bundesliga last season, with Hamburg running out 2-1 winners on that occasion. There was a combined xG of 4.38 produced between the sides, which further suggests that we can see a few goals here.

Hamburg picked up 2+ cards in both of their clashes against Koln in 2. Bundesliga last season. They currently rank fourth in the Bundesliga for fouls per game (12.6), with this record leading to 15 yellow cards across their eight matches (1.8 per game).

I can see that record increasing here with the issues that Hamburg have faced on the road so far. They are yet to win a game and have only scored one goal, frustrations could rise if Koln manage to control the game.

Hamburg have also picked up two red cards this season to add to their yellow card tally. Newly promoted sides regularly rank high for fouls and cards, particularly in away matches as they desperately try to pick up crucial points.