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League One has been fascinating this season, and with most sides having played roughly half of their games, we thought it would be the perfect time to revisit our League One experts’ outright tips from the start of the season.
As we have been through the first half of 2023/24, we’ll be all over the EFL for the rest of the season, including our usual selection of EFL accumulator tips and EFL bet builder tips for every round of fixtures. It’s not just English football we cover on Andy’s Bet Club either, with a range of football betting tips & predictions on the site every day.
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In this article, we have reviewed some of the highlights of our pre-season outright picks and have included bet links for the selections we believe still represent value.
League One automatic promotion odds
Bolton automatic promotion
Bolton sit second, two points ahead of third and fourth-placed Peterborough United and Derby County having played a game less, so the pick is looking strong. We found a value bet in tipping them for automatic promotion at 4.33 when they are now 2.0 with Sky Bet.
We wouldn’t encourage anyone to back them at that price due to the strength of Posh and Derby chasing them, but if you were on them at 4.33 you should have an exciting bet at a great price to cheer on for the remainder of the campaign.
They have not been able to pull away as some may have expected after results like their 7-0 win over Exeter City, but with Portsmouth faltering above them they are still in with a good shout of winning the title. This bet could have been home and dry if it was not for the form that the Rams and Posh have found in the last couple of months, but the latter could be set to lose some key players in January. There is still some hard work remaining for Ian Evatt and the Trotters to get over the line.
Derby automatic promotion
The market has moved in our favour on our Derby County automatic promotion pre-season tip. It was available at 3.25 when we tipped it and has since come in to 1.80.
That has happened despite the fact County are currently fourth in the table. The bookies’ high estimation of the Rams has not wavered after a rocky start to the season under Paul Warne, and they are favourites for the title with Sky Bet. Peterborough are the biggest threat and potential spanner in the works to this bet, putting together a dynamic attacking unit under Darren Ferguson that has defied its youthfulness to climb the table.
The Rams are looking to strengthen their bid for promotion and are active in the transfer market this month, they could well go on to demonstrate why the bookies are so heavily favouring them from this position. At 3.25 it is another strong pre-season bet to cheer on, but not one we recommend getting on now it has shortened to 1.80.
League One Top 6 odds
Bristol Rovers Top 6 Finish
Now here is an opportunity to take on one of our pre-season tips but at a bigger price than it was initially tipped at. There is huge value in Bristol Rovers to finish in the top six at 7.50. We tipped the Gas at 4.50 pre-season to make the play-offs and having weathered the storm that placed them in the bottom half for the majority of the campaign to this point, 7.50 does not reflect the chance that they have of overcoming a nine-point gap to the top six with 22 matches left to play.
They have improved greatly since changing Joey Barton for Matt Taylor in the dugout, and the addition of Chris Martin as a free agent has given them another dimension in attack. In Harvey Vale, Jevani Brown, Luke Thomas and Aaron Collins they have the attacking talent to trump the rest of the chasing pack. The bookies occasionally sleep on their outright prices where they do not for week-to-week action, 7.50 (implied probability of 13.3%) is questionable given the frailties of the sides above the Gas and the way they have been playing under Taylor.
⬇️ Bristol Rovers to finish in the Top 6
Portsmouth Top 6 Finish
Portsmouth to finish in the top 6 was tipped at the less glamorous price of 2.37, but it turns out it was one of the shrewdest of our outrights plays. Pompey are top of the league with a ten-point cushion on seventh place having lost just three times in 26 league outings this term.
The surprise appointment of John Mousinho is looking like a stroke of genius and the South Coast club went under the radar a touch in completing some very smart transfer business in the summer. The automatic promotion places may prove a bridge too far given the intimidating chasing trio breathing down their neck, but we don’t need to worry about that when we’re sat on them to finish in the top 6 at an odds-against price. Pompey to make the play-offs was 2.37 when we tipped it pre-season and is now as short as 1.04 on Sky Bet, suggesting it is extremely likely to land.
League One relegation odds
Exeter relegation
4.50 was an enormous price on Exeter City to get relegated, during pre-season, considering the players they lost in the summer, and we are very well placed to land an outright winner. They have shortened to 2.10 to drop to League Two with a terrible run of form overwriting the promise that they showed in the opening couple of months of the campaign.
The Grecians’ last 17 league games have seen them plummet down the league. In their last 17, they have seen a run of two wins, four draws and 11 defeats, scoring eight and conceding 33. Gary Caldwell has kept his job even considering that run, but that is more down to Exeter’s off-pitch situation as a fan-owned club and the financial wherewithal it takes to roll the managerial dice.
They have the joint-second worst goal difference in the division and have suffered injuries to key players along the way. It’s a club with a great spirit and tradition but in terms of this season’s relegation battle, they are swimming against the tide. They’re still a decent bet at the much shorter price of 2.10 with Sky.
⬇️ Exeter relegation
Cheltenham relegation
Cheltenham did not score and only picked up one point from their opening 11 league games this season. Our tip of the Robins to get relegated at 2.75 was looking very smart, but what has followed has been truly remarkable.
They are not out of the woods yet, but since Darrell Clarke replaced Wade Elliott in the Gloucestershire dugout, Cheltenham rank as the 11th best team in the division and are averaging over 1 GF per game. It is hard to second-guess managerial upgrades when making pre-season predictions and though Cheltenham are still inside the relegation zone by three points, their form line and accompanying performances suggest they will find a way out of trouble.
Sky Bet’s price of 1.83 on them to get relegated is not one we endorse at all, Clarke has transformed the levels of the squad and with Exeter City, Cambridge United, Burton Albion and Shrewsbury Town looking vulnerable from above the dotted line, it now feels more likely than not that the Robins pull off one of the greatest relegation escapes of the 2020s.
Carlisle relegation
Carlisle are making a splash in the January transfer window under new ownership, but, even so, we’re very happy to be on them to be relegated at 2.50, where they are now priced up at 1.17 for the drop by Sky Bet.
Paul Simpson has worked minor miracles at the club since arriving at the back end of 2021/22 for his second spell in the dugout, but he was not given the tools and funds to build a squad ready for the step up to League One. A new takeover has changed that, but January is a notoriously difficult transfer window to negotiate and the Cumbrians are six points from safety, having won only four of 26 league games this term.
If more sides can be dragged into the dog fight from lower mid table and the cluster immediately above the bottom four then they may have a chance, but starting next season with promotion ambitions in the fourth tier is by far the more likely outcome at this stage.
League One Top Goalscorer odds
Dion Charles Top Goalscorer
We took Dion Charles for the League One golden boot at 13.0 and he’s since shortened to 6.50. The Northern Irishman is two goals behind Jordan Rhodes, who tops the charts alongside Alfie May with 15 league goals, and with Bolton being the fourth-highest scorers in the third tier Charles should have plenty of opportunities in the second half of the season.
All of Charles’ goals have come from inside the penalty area and he could have an edge on the four players above him in the top goalscorer race if Bolton’s battle for a top-two finish goes right down to the final day. There is a chance that Rhodes (Blackpool), May (Charlton), Devante Cole (Barnsley) and Jamie Reid (Stevenage), who currently stand between him and the golden boot, have less on the line in the season’s final weeks. 13.0 was very generous and it gives us a nice longshot to monitor for the remainder of the campaign.
6.50 is still worth considering for on Charles as a long odds bet to monitor right up until gameweek 46.
⬇️ Dion Charles Top Goalscorer
Collins will be key if Derby are to go up
There is still value in backing James Collins for the golden boot at 19.0 with Sky Bet. We tipped him at 21.0 pre-season, but 19.0 still offers value especially as he is the biggest goal threat for the side who are favourites to win the league title. Collins has 11 goals to his name, five more than any of his team-mates and is, therefore, trailing Rhodes and May at the summit by four.
The Irishman has scored three in his last two league games so this could be a bet to snap up before the price implodes if he can sustain that hot streak. Paul Warne values experienced players and will likely stick by Collins, despite competition for places, in the crunch moments to come in League One. At 33, he has the nous to deliver for the Rams and has won this exact prize in the past in his days at Luton Town.
⬇️ James Collins Top Goalscorer
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *
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