Barnet are irresistible for the xG lovers.

They spent the entire 2025/26 season at the top end of the expected points table, despite lingering in mid-table in reality before putting together a late dart for the play-offs, only missing out by two points.

They won seven and drew two of their final nine league games, winning the last five on the bounce.

Carry that into this season, and they’ll be in the top three mix without a doubt.

With fourth-tier budget beasts like MK Dons and Notts County out of the way now (winning promotion last season), and three of the four coming down looking more likely to suffer a double relegation than bounce straight back, the stars have aligned pretty well for Barnet to mount a serious top three push.

This is the continuity pick.

I was on Lincoln City to finish in the top six in League One last season at 6/1 with a similar rationale.

They won the league by 12 clear points (103 in total).

It was the culmination of years of incremental improvements on and off the pitch.

I’m not expecting a re-run of that, but Danny Cowley has done good work at Colchester, now approaching three years in charge.

He steadied the ship to keep them up, before finishing 10th and 12th in his two seasons at the helm.

The Essex-born manager has won League Two before, with Lincoln City coincidentally, and has gradually improved the squad to the point where they are ready to aim high.

If they click, Samson Tovide and Bradley Ihionvien will be amongst the best strikers in the league.

Exeter are the favourites of the four newly-relegated sides to continue the double relegation trend that has occurred in two of the last three seasons.

The fanbase is divided, with many opposing the fan ownership of the club, and there have been significant cuts to the playing budget, which will make the transition to League Two more challenging.

The Grecians only won one of their last 20 league games last season.

They'll be reliant on academy players to prop them up all over the pitch.

It's hard enough to lure players to Devon in good circumstances, but with a wage budget comfortably in the bottom half and supporter unrest, it's been a challenging summer so far.

They've added Gwion Edwards, who was relegated from the National League with Morecambe last season, striker Josh Gordon, who has scored 11 League Two goals across the last three seasons, and Taylor Perry from Shrewsbury.

Definitely a side trending downwards.

Rotherham could be the side to carry on the double drop trend, with a League Two side suffering a double relegation in two of the last three seasons.

They’re a shambles off the pitch; they’re no longer able to compete financially as they were before.

They generated less than 1 xG per game last season.

Alex Bruce is their new manager, having only previously managed Macclesfield in non-league, and he’ll be working with a squad of significantly lower quality than the one that stunk out League One last season.

There's been a mass exodus of 20 players, with only eight arrivals so far.

They've acquired some pace in the final third in Aaron Nemane and Fabio Tavares, but neither are bankers at the level.

They're lacking peak-age players; it's mainly has-beens and youngsters left.

The atmosphere around the club is grim, with the fans frustrated with the ownership; this could get ugly.

In two of the last three seasons, a team has suffered a double relegation from League One to the National League.

Crawley, 22nd with 40 points from 46 games, and Shrewsbury, 19th with 49 points from 46 games, both threatened to continue that trend at big prices in 2025/26.

Northampton completely fell apart last season, to the point where they were no longer competitive in the third tier and were desperate for the season to end.

They only won once in the league after Christmas, that's a massive 26-game sample where they picked up eight points, losing their last 11 in a row.

To address these issues, they've brought in a manager who's never managed in senior professional football.

Chris Hogg is Liam Manning's long term assistant manager, and has a serious challenge on his hands in his first gig as the main person.

14/1 is way too big on them to double drop, I'm pouncing.