Crawley v Crewe

The biggest day of the League Two season arrives on Sunday, as Crawley and Crewe go head-to-head at Wembley Stadium to battle it out for promotion to the third tier.

We have the best football tips and predictions for the week's action up on-site which includes our EFL tips, including our Bolton v Oxford preview ahead of their play-off final on Saturday. If you fancy taking on some extra funds for the play-offs you should visit our Free Bets Page ahead of kick-off.

For a fresh look at this week's card, our btts tips and shots on target prediction will be of interest to you, while we have bet builder punters covered with our carefully curated list of the best bet builder bookmakers.

For the first time in their history, Crawley are heading to Wembley and a place in League One is on the line. They’ll face a Crewe team that was playing in the division above as recently as 2021/22, and both will fight until the very end to secure the promotion they believe they deserve.

Crawley probably shocked themselves given the ease with which they negotiated the semi-finals with MK Dons; winning 8-1 on aggregate. Crewe had to go the distance versus Doncaster and progressed on penalties after overcoming a 2-0 deficit from the first leg (2-2 AET).

Crawley v Crewe Best Bets

➡️ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.85 on bet365
➡️ Both teams to score @ 1.65 on Betfair

📂 Crawley v Crewe Cheat Sheet

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⚔️ Crawley v Crewe Head-to-Head

If the two meetings in the 2023/24 League Two regular season are anything to go by then Crewe may already have one foot in League One. That is because the Railwaymen completed the double over their West Sussex opposition; the only top-half club they managed to do so against.

Last October, a six-goal thriller was edged out by Crewe, who emerged from that away fixture triumphant by a 4-2 scoreline, despite trailing 2-1 at half time. The more recent encounter played in February finished 1-0, a fair result based on the xG totals 0.90-0.34.

📊 Crawley Form and Stats

Over the previous 14 matches in all competitions for Crawley, ten have featured a minimum of three goals. In total, the average number of goals within those battles was 3.57. Town scored over 1.5 goals in ten of those fixtures, too.

Over the regular season, Crawley won only two of 12 season meetings versus opponents that finished in the top seven. However, they made light work of both play-off legs against MK Dons, who finished the season in fourth. They also failed to score in five of those clashes, but they’re currently enjoying a nine-game scoring run.

Despite defeating MK Dons inboth legs of their semi-final, they were second-best on the xG count each time. Although the aggregate result was 8-1 in their favour, the combined xG over both legs had the Dons coming out on top 3.19-2.99.

It has been quite a common habit for Crawley to lose the xG battle in recent games. Over the aforementioned 14-match run, Scott Lindsey’s side were second-best on the xG count in 11, despite winning eight, drawing three and losing three. Having comfortably the best goalkeeper in the division, according to goals prevented, in Corey Addai may have a lot to do with this overperformance compared to their underlying numbers.

📊 Crewe Form and Stats

Since the beginning of February, Crewe have won just three matches out of a possible 14 overall, one of which was the play-off second leg to force extra time away to Doncaster last time out. Winning that encounter 2-0 inside 90 minutes ended a 13-game period of failing to score over 1.5 goals in a match.

In beating Doncaster, the Alex only reached an xG of 0.52; which was second-best on the night. Scoring goals has been a big concern for Lee Bell’s side, despite reaching a Wembley final. Over their previous nine matches played, they have failed to score in six.

Still, Crewe posted a higher xG (65.14) than Crawley (64.94) during the regular League Two campaign.

Over the season, the Alex’s meetings against top-seven opposition resulted in both teams scoring in seven of 12. They scored two or more goals in half of those matchups, suggesting they won’t be afraid to take the game to Crawley on Saturday.

💰 Crawley v Crewe Best Bets 

Neither team have played on as big of a pitch as Wembley Stadium this season and it’ll be much harder to implement their usual tactics for a full 90 minutes.

Some tiredness and lapses in concentration in this high-pressure match will come into play, which is another big reason why over 2.5 goals at 1.85 with bet365 and both teams to score at 1.65 with Betfair merit strong consideration.

Crawley and Crewe will look to play a positive match and will not hide in their shells, so a goal-laden game feels more likely than in play-off finals gone by.

* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.